The contest is bipolar in southern states: Karnataka, Kerala, and Andhra Pradesh. In Tamil Nadu and Telangana, the race is for second place.
From left: Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah, Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin, Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister YS Jagan Mohan Reddy, Telangana Chief Minster A Revanth Reddy, and Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan. (Supplied)
On Friday, 19 April, when the first vote is cast for the Lok Sabha elections 2024, the process of electing a government for a billion-plus people begins. Lok Sabha polls in five southern states—Kerala, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and Telangana—are crucial for the prospects of both alliances—the BJP-led NDA and the opposition’s INDIA bloc. There are 129 seats at stake.
Other than Bihar and Maharashtra, the Lok Sabha polls in Southern States could make it or break it for both fronts.
In reality, the contest is clearly bipolar in Karnataka, where the BJP is in alliance with JD(S) and is taking on Congress. In Kerala and Andhra Pradesh, although three fronts are in play — LDF, UDF and NDA in the former, and NDA, YSRCP and Congress in the latter, the contest, for all practical purposes, is still bipolar with the third player being a distant disruptor.
The BJP-led NDA in Kerala is perhaps only as relevant and impactful as the Congress in Andhra Pradesh under the newly-elected state President, YS Sharmila. Vote-share ratio apart, the two parties have the same chance of winning seats in Kerala and Andhra Pradesh, respectively.
Even if the fight is between the Congress-led UDF and the CPI (M)-led LDF in Kerala, the INDIA bloc stands to gain nationally irrespective of who wins how many seats in the bipolar contest. In Andhra Pradesh, as YSRCP single-handedly takes on an alliance of BJP, Chandrababu Naidu’s TDP, and Pawan Kalyan’s Jana Sena, Congress under Sharmila can only hope to wean away votes from YSRCP.
That leaves the electoral contest the most interesting in Tamil Nadu and Telangana. While several analysts and media houses will have you believe that the Lok Sabha election 2024 seems like a three-cornered contest in Telangana and Tamil Nadu, the fight is only for second place. Ground sensibilities suggest that ruling parties in Tamil Nadu and Telangana, DMK and Congress, respectively, are comfortably ahead in the Lok Sabha 2024 electoral race.
Fresh off its victory in the assembly elections, the Revanth Reddy-led Congress in Telangana seems to be firmly in the driver’s seat. Of Telangana’s 17 Lok Sabha seats, Congress is confident of winning in double digits, leaving the BRS and BJP to fight it out for the second spot.
Other than absolute consolidation of minority votes, Congress is banking on the partial ‘Guarantees’ it has implemented to keep itself on top of the electoral game. Free bus rides for women, subsidised LPG, and zero-bill electricity up to 200 units have emerged as favourable to the party. Except on Asaduddin Owaisi’s turf of Hyderabad, Congress is hopeful of absolute consolidation of minority votes in its favour, even more so than in the assembly polls. It’s a contest between Guarantees and the new administration against Modi’s popularity in Telangana for Congress.
The BRS, which has been bleeding leaders ever since its loss in last year’s assembly election, is fighting a battle for relevance. From sitting incumbent MPs to named candidates, many have deserted the party. Unwilling to give up, K Chandrashekar Rao runs a fiery campaign to fight for relevance in Telangana. Not a part of either national front—NDA or INDIA—KCR wants BRS to hold its own.
With four Lok Sabha seats under its belt, BJP is keen to emerge as the primary opposition party in Telangana and replace BRS. Its vote share may be well below BRS’, but the saffron party hopes to make Telangana its second-best tally for a state after Karnataka in the South. With Hindutva as its primary pitch and Modi in the driver’s seat of the campaign, BJP has much to gain in the long run if it finishes BRS off electorally.
As part of its ‘South push,’ the BJP has focused especially on Tamil Nadu. From the ‘Kashi Tamil sangamam’ initiative to placing a Sengol in parliament, a statewide yatra by Annamalai to multiple rallies of PM Narendra Modi, the party has consistently and consciously indulged in outreach.
A projected firebrand leader at the helm of affairs in Tamil Nadu has cost BJP a reliable ally in AIADMK. Now, the contest for who will be runner-up is between BJP and AIADMK. For AIADMK, led by Edappadi Palaniswami, breaking the BJP’s projected position as the ‘primary opposition party’ is crucial for revival.
In Tamil Nadu’s 39 Lok Sabha seats, DMK is the biggest beneficiary of a split in anti-incumbency votes. What could have been a real threat to MK Stalin’s party and its allies had the BJP and AIADMK continued their alliance is now a cakewalk in over 30 seats. The BJP seems to be in a tough competition with AIADMK for the second spot.
While there is no beating AIADMK regarding vote share, the BJP hopes to wean away caste and anti-incumbency votes and trump EPS’ party in number of seats. For the BJP, like Thrissur in Kerala, Tirunelveli, aka Nellai in Tamil Nadu, is the best bet for a competition.
The primary agenda for AIADMK is to ensure it outperforms the BJP, whose candidate is state unit chief K Annamalai, in Coimbatore. While DMK is fighting anti-incumbency with a robust grassroots-level organisational network, AIADMK focuses on recovering and protecting its traditional vote bank from shifting to the BJP.
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