Each coalition says it is trying to bring the most number of voters to polling booths, but based on widely varied issues.
(Representational image/Creative Commons)
With the Lok Sabha elections barely a month away, the political landscape in Kerala is expectedly abuzz with activity.
All three major political coalitions — the Left Democratic Front (LDF), the United Democratic Front (UDF), and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) — have ramped up their poll campaigns.
As they strategise and mobilise resources to secure victory in the crucial elections, the authorities — mainly the Election Commission — are keeping a close watch on the proceedings.
Each coalition says it is trying to bring the most number of voters to polling booths. According to them, their special focus will be on first-time voters and NRI voters.
As per stats available with the chief electoral officer (CEO) of Kerala, the state — as of 25 March — had 3,88,981 first-time voters, who are aged 18-19 years, and 88,384 NRI voters as of 18 March.
The LDF, led by the CPI(M), believes it gained an early advantage in the upcoming polls as it was the first front to announce all of its candidates.
It thinks this proactive approach has set the stage for intense campaigning and positioned it as a frontrunner in the electoral race.
“The decision to unveil the full list of candidates well ahead of others reflects our confidence and meticulous planning. By swiftly finalizing the candidate lineup, we aimed to consolidate support, energise our voter base, and maintain a competitive edge,” a senior CPI(M) member told South First.
At the same time, the member added that the early announcement of candidates also provided ample time for the LDF to showcase the state government’s policies and achievements to voters, enhancing its appeal and credibility in the run-up to the polls.
“We knew that the others — the UDF and the NDA — would do their level best to tarnish the image of the Pinarayi Vijayan-led government and thereby trigger anti-incumbency feelings,” said the member.
He added, “However, by finalising our lineup well in advance, we get ample time to fine-tune our campaign tone, address grassroots issues, and engage in targeted outreach efforts across constituencies.”
The LDF had won only one seat — Alappuzha — in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, and that too by 10,474 votes: AM Arif defeated the UDF’s Shanimol Osman.
The LDF has this time fielded four MLAs — KK Shailaja, M Mukesh, V Joy, and SC/ST Development Minister K Radhakrishnan — and two sitting MPs — AM Ariff and Thomas Chazhikkadan — among others.
The front has fielded three women candidates in the form of Shailaja, Annie Raja, and KJ Shine.
However, allegations of corruption, nepotism, violence, a BJP-CPI(M) nexus, and hollow promises — especially to coastal communities and those living in high ranges — might dent the electoral prospects of the front.
In 2019, three waves were said to have gone in favour of the UDF — led by Congress — as it won 19 out of the 20 seats in the state.
They were an anti-Modi wave, an anti-Pinarayi Vijayan wave, and a pro-Rahul Gandhi wave. Cut to 2024, and the front believes the three waves have only become stronger.
“We have high hopes and are ambitious. We have geared up for the upcoming polls with confidence, eyeing a potential clean sweep. Our optimism stems from a combination of factors that contributed to the landslide victory in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections,” said a general secretary of the Kerala Pradesh Congress Committee (KPCC).
However, amidst this optimism, the UDF is also grappling with a significant challenge — funding constraints — that could potentially impact its election plans and outreach efforts.
“Yes, it’s a fact. Our national leadership as well as some state committees have already raised this issue,” said the general secretary.
“The financial crunch has raised concerns within the UDF camp about the scale and effectiveness of the campaign activities — including advertising, mobilisation drives, and resource allocation — across constituencies,” he added.
Party insiders also acknowledged that while the core factors driving the UDF’s electoral success remained intact, the financial limitations posed a hurdle to the front realising its full potential and achieving an even more resounding victory.
It is learnt that strategies to overcome these challenges — including intensifying fundraising efforts, optimising campaign spending, and leveraging digital platforms — were being discussed for cost-effective outreach.
“The party remains confident in its ability to capitalise on prevailing sentiments and consolidate support. We also have plans to highlight the impact of funding constraints to make the people aware that the BJP is sabotaging the Opposition’s right to campaign,” said the general secretary.
The UDF camp this time is facing the election with a couple of surprises.
First, the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) has switched its sitting MPs of Malappuram and Ponnani.
Then, the main constituent — the Congress — has denied TN Prathapan a Lok Sabha ticket, thus making him the only sitting MP in the UDF to suffer the ignominy.
The Congress has sprung another surprise by shifting K Muraleedharan — the sitting MP of Vadakara — to Thrissur and fielding Shafi Parambil as its candidate for Vadakara.
However, the front’s chances might be dented by factors like not giving enough representation to women in the lineup (Ramya Haridas is the lone woman in the line-up), leaders switching over to the BJP, infighting, anti-incumbency against sitting MPs, and the Kerala Congress (M)’s absence.
The NDA, led by the BJP, has finally fixed its line-up to challenge the dominance of established fronts in Kerala.
This time, the alliance believes it can make significant inroads into Kerala’s political landscape and expand its electoral footprint in the state.
The Kerala BJP leadership has already expressed confidence in the strength and calibre of the candidates fielded, believing they possess the acumen and dedication to offer tough competition to their opponents.
It has said it got a shot in the arm as the Central leadership on Sunday asked Kerala BJP president K Surendran to contest against Rahul Gandhi in Wayanad.
The party insiders said that the biggest aspiration of the party was to secure its first-ever Lok Sabha seat from Kerala, a milestone that would signify a notable shift in the state’s political dynamics.
“With a carefully curated candidate line-up and a focused campaign agenda, the BJP aims to strike a chord with voters across diverse segments. We know that Hindutva will not garner votes. We will talk about development and why the BJP is a credible alternative here,” said a member of the state leadership.
The member observed that going by the ground reports, there was an anti-incumbency sentiment against the LDF government, dissatisfaction with traditional political fronts, and a desire for change among certain sections of the electorate.
“We are hopeful that we can leverage these opportunities in our electoral quest,” said the member.
However, he also remained sceptical about leveraging the opportunities to the fullest as infighting and factionalism along with grudges of some leaders (PC George) grudge against others (Thushar Vellapally and Anil K Antony) might once again cause a long-awaited dream to slip away.
One positive aspect that the NDA has been highlighting is that compared with the other two fronts, it has fielded more women candidates — five in the line-up.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the NDA couldn’t make any significant impact in Kerala: All of its candidates failed miserably.
(Edited by Arkadev Ghoshal)
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