Congress may not be friends with BSP at the national level but it hasn't closed off the option of considering it as a partner in Telangana.
File photo of Revanth Reddy and senior leaders from Telangana at AICC HQ. (Screengrab)
While speculation about Telangana Congress chief Revanth Reddy and the party’s political strategist Sunil Kanugolu having a fallout is making rounds in the state, the two leaders were in New Delhi discussing the party’s election plans, unfazed by reports of trouble in the Congress camp.
On Sunday, 23 July, the discussions shifted to Hyderabad, where the party chalked out its primary poll plan for the next few months.
While the results of Karnataka Assembly elections have led to an upsurge for the Telangana Congress — both in perception and on the ground — the poll battle in Telangana is set to be very different for the party, as discussed in the back-to-back meetings.
The party’s strategy is said to be centred around cashing in on the anti-incumbency against the BRS government of Chief Minister K Chandrashekar Rao that will have been in office for nearly a decade.
The other factors that the party is focused on are: The consolidation of the votes of the Reddy and Dalit communities, a focus on vote shift among the Backward Classes (BCs) in the districts where the party can push for BC leaders; and narrative-building in favour of Congress as the party that gave statehood to Telangana.
The grand old party is also focused on highlighting large-scale welfare schemes — as part of its “guarantees” — that can appeal to the economically weaker strata of voters who may overlook the caste and community equations.
According to Congress Publicity Committee chairman and former MP Madhu Goud Yaskhi, already, ₹4,000 pension, which the party announced, is having the desired effect on the people.
“If the BRS has announced ₹4,016 in pension to the differently abled, it was because of the Congress’ pressure on the ruling party,” Madhu Yaskhi told media after Sunday’s meeting.
Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) may not be on friendly terms with the Congress at the national level, but in Telangana, the party hasn’t shut off the possibility of a potential partnership with the BSP to further consolidate the Dalit votes.
The popularity of BSP chief in Telangana, former IPS officer RS Praveen Kumar, makes him an influential leader who could help consolidate Dalit votes.
In its attempt to focus on specific communities and demographics, the party has decided to come out with five declarations, according to Mohammed Shabbir Ali, the convenor of the party’s Political Affairs Committee.
The declarations would focus on the BCs, the Scheduled Castes (SCs), the Scheduled Tribes (STs), the Muslim and Christian minorities, and women.
“A sub-committee to be constituted to decide what should be promised to these sections. Scholars and experts would be consulted. We will study what they need and what should be done to them,” Shabbir Ali told media on Sunday.
Not “gifting” any poll issue to KCR’s BRS and putting up a united front to take on a formidable rival were among the issues highlighted in the meetings, according to those present.
The stress on not landing in controversies comes at a time Telangana Congress Chief Revanth Reddy’s statement on electricity supply to farmers snowballed into a raging political tussle between Congress and BRS with the latter deeming Congress “anti-farmer”.
Although the Congress is the primary Opposition party in Telangana, the grand old party has lost several leaders from among its fold, including MLAs, to rivals in the past four years. In the 119-seat Telangana Assembly, the Congress currently holds a mere five seats after its legislators jumped ship to the BRS.
On average, Congress’ vote share in Telangana hovers around 28 percent. Even if newly-inducted, popular leaders of the BRS were to offset some of the vote loss due to defections, the party still needs to swing a huge eight to nine percent vote share to even expect to pose a real poll challenge to the BRS.
The incumbent BRS had a solid 46.8 percent vote share in the 2018 Assembly elections.
Although the BRS lost two by-polls to the BJP and won one in the current term of the Assembly, beating its vote share would be a herculean task for the Congress, with anti-incumbency alone as its primary tool.
“After nine years in office, it is only natural for any party to have anti-incumbency. There is anti-incumbency at the local level, but there is no massive anger against the government as was the case in Karnataka against the BJP government,” a senior member of KCR’s government and party told South First on why the BRS isn’t worried about the Congress’ anti-incumbency pitch.
“A few changes by the BRS in its ticket distribution and more welfare measures by the government ahead of the polls will pacify anti-incumbency to a great extent,” the leader added.
The Congress itself is convinced that an anti-incumbency pitch alone won’t be enough to swing an 8-9 percent vote share.
The party is looking to focus on what it deems a “positive campaign” centred around what the Congress has delivered and can deliver vis-a-vis the BRS.
In Karnataka, anti-incumbency against the BJP government, big-ticket welfare schemes packaged as “guarantees”, and an absolute consolidation of minority votes were the key contributors to the Congress’ landslide victory.
In Telangana, except for the anti-incumbency against the BRS government, the Congress is yet to get its narrative and consolidation tactics on track.
Unlike in Karnataka, where the Congress — in a direct poll pitch against the BJP — was able to consolidate the votes of the minority communities, in Telangana the minority votes are split between the incumbent BRS, the AIMIM, and the Congress.
In the 15 seats in and around Hyderabad alone, the Congress has to compete with the AIMIM, which is popular among minorities, and the BJP, which has a hold over the majority of the urban voters.
Telangana Chief Minister KCR himself enjoys popularity among the minority community voters across the state and commands their votes.
In an attempt to break this vote bank, the Congress, in its messaging, has been insisting that there was a tacit understanding between the BJP and the BRS — an attempt to suggest that a vote for the BRS is a vote for the BJP.
“The primary challenge for the Congress in Telangana is to overcome the tacit understanding of BRS-BJP-AIMIM. We are fighting three parties that have come together. The three have joined hands just to stop the Congress,” Mansoor Ali Khan, AICC secretary in charge of Telangana for the upcoming Assembly elections, told South First.
In Karnataka, the guarantee schemes of the Congress worked not only because of its welfarist nature but also because Siddaramaiah had delivered on his “Bhagya” schemes in his previous tenure.
A sense of trust in delivery was attached to the guarantees made by the Congress. In Telangana, the Congress announced its first poll guarantee — “Cheyutha” — a pension guarantee scheme, in July.
The guarantees have a challenge in Telangana since the incumbent BRS government is already a big pusher of welfare schemes.
KCR is known for his welfare schemes. With Rythu Bandhu to Dalit Bandhu, and the latest addition to appease minority voters — a financial assistance scheme for Muslims — one could call KCR the king of welfare schemes.
Congress’ guarantees could perhaps be an enhancement on existing schemes packaged in a different colour unless it comes with something out-of-the-box.
“Our campaign is just beginning. KCR is only a welfare-announcing king. He promises, but he doesn’t deliver. It is always a teaser and never a product. The BRS government hasn’t completed any programme,” insisted Khan, pointing to how flagship schemes of the chief minister, including the two-bedroom houses and Dalit Bandhu, had either not taken off or had been clouded with corruption.
In the months running up to the election, the Congress is preparing to focus on the consolidation of its traditional vote banks: The Reddys and the Dalits.
The Congress is also keeping the option of considering the BSP as a potential partner in Telangana, given its influence among the Dalit voters in districts like Medak, Warangal, and Nizamabad.
“When AIMIM and Left parties are working with BRS, why should the Congress not consider the BSP which has influence among the Dalits?” asked a senior functionary of AICC involved in election planning for the party.
In addition, the party is looking to woo the sections within the BCs that have been left disgruntled with the BJP choosing to replace Bandi Sanjay Kumar — a Munnuru Kapu leader — with G Kishan Reddy as its state unit chief.
Despite KCR’s Dalit Bandhu, Congress believes it can further consolidate its Dalit vote bank pointing to the loopholes in the scheme’s implementation and the anger against the BRS MLAs over stalling of the scheme.
The Congress is also focused on expanding its vote share by inducting leaders from other parties, especially in districts where it has no largescale influence.
“There are at least 15-20 leaders of the BRS who are in talks with the Congress to shift parties right before the elections. These leaders are from 3-4 districts where the Congress needs to strengthen itself. We are aware of the possibility that some leaders from the Congress too would want to join other parties. All of this will happen much closer to the election when the public sentiment crystalises. For now, narrative building and sustained positive campaign that isn’t only centred around the anti-incumbency against the BRS is the focus,” pointed out a senior functionary of AICC about the party’s strategy in Telangana.
The Congress, in its surveys, seems to have also found that the change of name from Telangana Rashtra Samiti to Bharat Rashtra Samiti is working against KCR’s party.
(With inputs from Raj Rayasam in Hyderabad)
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