What are the chances that Congress will elect a president from South India this time?

Why the change of guard?

Several reasons have necessitated this change of guard in the Congress leadership. The first of these is the perceived “Gandhi” fatigue.

The party — in an effort to continue the “Gandhi” legacy and reap its electoral benefits — has since the mid-1990s relied on Sonia and Rahul to appear as its face.

Congress leader Sonia Gandhi. (Supplied)

Sonia has been the Congress president for the longest in the party’s history, with her term from 1998 to the present day being interrupted by Rahul’s small stint from 2017 to 2019, when he was also the party’s and the UPA’s prime-ministerial face.

However, while that still keeps the Congress’ “Gandhi party” identity alive in rural pockets, it has its complications. For one, Sonia Gandhi has not been keeping well.

Secondly, while his father Rajiv took to politics as a duck takes to water when the responsibility was thrust on him, Rahul Gandhi was eased into his role, but never grew to fill it.

And thirdly, anyone else elected Congress president would automatically shoulder the blame for some inevitable poll debacles, thereby shielding the Gandhis from them.

North votes vs South votes

Now, the Gandhis have loyalists from both North and South India in the Congress. So why is someone like Ashok Gehlot, and not P Chidambaram or Mallikarjun Kharge, tipped to lead the Congress?

The answers have multiple layers. The first is the northern vote. The Congress still has strongholds in northern states, whether it be solo or in a coalition. It has such pocket boroughs in South India as well.

The BJP has a strong grip in North India, but that grip has holes that the Congress may be able to exploit in the absence of the kind of vice-like grip that regional parties have across most of East and South India.

The second layer is Uttar Pradesh as a whole. As a state, it has sent the greatest number of prime ministers to power, and that includes Narendra Modi.

The first part of the choice, thus, is clear. The Congress will have to choose someone from North India to re-galvanise its vote bank there before it can take on the BJP and its brand of politics throughout the rest of India. Whether Gehlot is that man remains to be seen.

North leaders vs South leaders

The Congress may be haemorrhaging politicians to the BJP all over India, but it still has some top-tier names left in the North, despite the recent departure of Ghulam Nabi Azad.

That’s not the case in South India, where there are few Congress leaders that could have a pan-India appeal in general and North-India appeal in particular.

Three names do come to mind, but logic sweeps away any hope of their immediate or belated elevation to the post of Congress chief.

An obvious one would be Mallikarjun Kharge, who could be a decent choice. After all, Kharge is currently the Leader of the Opposition in the Rajya Sabha.

A quick recounting of history, however, would immediately lead one to the fact that he had to be nominated to the post because he lost the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, denting his image as a suitable choice for electoral politics.

Congress leader P Chidambaram. (Supplied)

A second option could have been P Chidambaram, who is a stalwart on his own, and has name recognition in North India. What might deter the Congress from choosing him, though, is the number of cases against him and his son that Central agencies are probing.

The fact that he once broke away and formed an offshoot of the Tamil Manila Congress, itself an offshoot of the Congress, does not help matters either.

A distant third is Shashi Tharoor. This fluent orator once vied for the top job at the UN after having served there for years, but this polished politician may not be a hit with the rural vote. After all, even the urban crowd struggles with the “exasperating farrago” that are his remarks from time to time. And the Sunanda Pushkar case may hang over his head till the end, no matter how much he tries to leave it in the rear-view mirror.

Other options?

Of course, the likes of Jairam Ramesh are waiting in the wings, some would say. However, has that wait been too long? Being a Gandhi loyalist may help his case, but the fact that Ramesh is now a Rajya Sabha member dents his chances.

The south lacks other prominent Congress leaders — especially those who have pan-India recognition. That argument itself should deflate the supporters of leaders like Siddaramaiah. And if the former Karnataka chief minister can’t make the cut, there is a slim chance that any other top state-level Congress leader from South India will.

(The views expressed are personal.)