The final round of discussions between the Jana Sena, the TDP, and the BJP is expected to happen soon after the budget sessions, which conclude on 9 February.
A snap from the video of PM Modi, former CM Chandra babu and JSP chief Pawan Kalyan campaigning in 2014. (Supplied)
A lot is going on in the YSRCP as part of its preparation for the upcoming elections. The TDP-Jana Sena alliance, on the other hand, seemed wobbly over the last two weeks.
On Sunday, however, Pawan Kalyan met Chandrababu Naidu indicating that things are moving along just fine in the TDP-JSP alliance. Despite the meeting between two leaders, there has been little talk of BJP in the equation. The delay in the BJP’s entry into the fray has many reasons.
According to sources, though Pawan Kalyan was pushing the TDP and the BJP to come together, neither was interested in the reunion.
Only recently did Prime Minister Narendra Modi, despite initially rejecting Pawan Kalyan’s request for an alliance with TDP, accepted it but subject to further discussions.
The final round of discussions between the three leaders is expected to happen soon after the budget session, which concludes on 9 February.
The TDP, led by Chandrababu Naidu, who parted ways with the BJP and the NDA in 2018, is reportedly not interested in rejoining the coalition.
Traditionally, the BJP has been a party with a mostly religious ideology, which has alienated minorities in Andhra Pradesh as well.
According to internal reports, details of which are available with South First, the TDP is expected to lose around eight Assembly seats, especially from the Rayalaseema zone, where the Muslim population is high.
However, Naidu wants a pact with the Jana Sena, which is in the NDA. Despite this, Pawan Kalyan has been pushing for an alliance with the BJP.
Naidu has agreed to the pact with the BJP to ensure that the alliance with Pawan Kalyan remains intact.
Pawan Kalyan, in the 2019 elections, got around 6 percent of the vote share, and he still holds sway in the Kapu community in coastal districts, which Naidu feels is necessary to win the elections.
The TDP has arrived at the consensus that effective poll management would be challenging without involving the BJP in the alliance being cobbled together to oust the ruling YSRCP, led by Chief Minister YS Jagan Mohan Reddy.
According to sources to whom South First reached out, Pawan Kalyan is expected to secure only the Kakinada and Machilipatnam Lok Sabha seats in the event of no alliance with the BJP.
However, Pawan Kalyan is also pushing for one more seat from the alliance, namely the Anakapalle parliamentary seat, to accommodate former Congress minister and two-time MP Konathala Ramakrishna, who recently joined the Jana Sena.
If the BJP joins the alliance, it is expected to secure four to five Lok Sabha seats and offer only one to the Jana Sena.
Additionally, aside from the state BJP chief Daggubati Purandeswari, former chief minister Kiran Kumar Reddy is set to contest from the Rajampet parliamentary seat. There is still no clarity regarding the BJP chief contesting a seat.
For now, it appears that the alliance is confined, but seat-sharing with the BJP is subject to further discussion.
Earlier, sources informed South First that the TDP offered around six Lok Sabha and 35 Assembly seats for the Jana Sena and the BJP.
While the Jana Sena is expected to receive a significant share of Assembly seats, the BJP is poised to take a major chunk of the Lok Sabha seats.
As Chandrababu Naidu was reluctant in the earlier days, PM Modi was keen on the alliance, but it is in the pursuance of Pawan Kalyan that PM Modi has okayed the alliance.
As previously reported by South First, on the first day of an internal meeting of the BJP on 3 January, a majority of the saffron party’s state unit — including district presidents — opposed an alliance with the TDP.
However, with national general secretary Tarun Chugh in attendance on the second day, senior leaders — ranging from Rajya Sabha members to former chief minister Kiran Kumar Reddy — spoke in favour of an alliance with the regional party.
Those who opposed the alliance echoed the general sentiment of the party workers on the first day of the meeting. The majority of the district presidents are not in favour of the alliance.
The cadre at the party office on 3 January recalled the TDP breaking away from the NDA in March 2018 and the protests it organised against Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah.
Such actions, including waving black flags and abusing leaders, humiliated workers of the entire party, they said.
Furthermore, they believe that in the alliances in 1998 and 2014, the saffron party was not given a fair chance to emerge as a key party.
Other leaders cited trust issues with Naidu, suggesting he might leave the BJP if he gained a majority in the Assembly.
However, on the second day, senior leaders spoke in favour of an alliance with the TDP.
Then, the sources indicated to South First that the national-level BJP leaders did not want to leave any stone unturned for the forthcoming elections, considering its significance after the party lost elections in the two southern states of Karnataka and Telangana.
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