Opposition alliance in Andhra elections: TDP close to sealing deal with the Jana Sena and BJP

There are 175 seats in the Andhra Pradesh Assembly and the state sends 25 MPs to the Lok Sabha. In the 2019 elections, the YSRCP swept the field with 151 seats in the Assembly and 22 in Parliament’s Lower House.

Also Read: Kurnool MP Dr Sanjeev Kumar, who quit YSRCP, says bribe was sought for Yemmiganur MLA ticket

The alliance deal

As previously reported by South First, on 3 January, the first day of an internal meeting of the BJP, a majority of the saffron party’s state unit — including district presidents — opposed an alliance with the TDP.

The meeting, chaired by the Andhra Pradesh BJP chief Daggubati Purandeswari, was attended by National Joint General Secretary Shiv Prakash, National Secretary Satya Kumar, and National Executive Members Kiran Kumar Reddy and Somu Veerraju.

However, on the second day, with National General Secretary Tarun Chugh in attendance, senior leaders, ranging from Rajya Sabha MPs to former chief minister Kiran Kumar Reddy, spoke in favour of an alliance with the TDP.

Sources indicated to South First that the national BJP leaders did want to leave any stone unturned for the forthcoming elections, considering its significance after the party lost elections in the two southern states of Karnataka and Telangana.

A “secret” visit to Delhi was reportedly made by TDP scion Nara Lokesh recently to finalise talks with the BJP leadership. This could not be independently confirmed at the time of writing this report.

The sources added that the TDP offered six Lok Sabha seats and 35 Assembly seats to the BJP-Jana Sena, who are formal allies.

Jana Sena, led by actor-politician Pawan Kalyan, is expected to get a major share in Assembly seats, around 26 to 28, leaving the remaining for the BJP. Of the six Lok Sabha seats offered, the BJP is expected to retain the major share, around four, leaving two for the Jana Sena.

Also Read: EC reviews poll preparedness for concurrent Lok Sabha, Assembly polls in Andhra Pradesh

Concerns over minority vote

Traditionally, the BJP has been a party with a mostly religious ideology, which has distanced minorities in Andhra Pradesh as well.

TDP sources told South First that the party does not believe its alliance with the BJP will significantly impact its minority votes as the minorities are also aware of the soft relationship between the YSRCP and the BJP.

Since assuming power in 2019, the YSRCP has maintained friendly relations with the saffron party and has not voted against any Bill in Parliament, including the controversial citizenship and farm bills.

“The number of seats offered by the TDP is also not amounting to a big number for the party. On the other hand, the TDP seems to benefit from having the BJP in its alliance, as it assumes this alliance will help restrict YS Jagan from effective poll management, which may pose difficulties if the TDP goes alone,” the sources added.

Regarding the BJP’s unfulfilled promises, such as the special status promised for Andhra Pradesh after bifurcation in 2014, Prof Veerraju, the head of the Political Science Department at Andhra University, told South First earlier that no leader will attack the saffron party on these issues.

He also noted that MPs from the business community seek the BJP’s support, and leaders of various parties have wide interests, making them unlikely to confront the BJP.

Also Read: YSRCP, BJP, TDP or Congress – YSR or NTR families are Andhra’s only choices

TDP-BJP alliance history

The BJP was formally established in 1980 and first contested in Andhra Pradesh elections in 1983, the same year the TDP made its electoral debut and secured a massive victory with 198 seats out of 294 total Assembly seats and a vote share of 46 percent.

The BJP won three seats with a vote share of around two percent. This marked the first time a regional force in Andhra Pradesh challenged the dominance of the Congress.

During the years 1985-89, NTR, the leader of TDP, developed a golden era of friendship with non-Congress parties. NTR forged electoral alliances with both the BJP and the Left parties as “mitra pakshalu” (friendly parties). In 1985 and 1989, the BJP won eight and five Assembly seats, respectively.

However, in the 1989 elections, the TDP won only 74 seats, losing the election to the Congress.

In the 1991 parliamentary elections, the BJP made its entry in Andhra Pradesh for the first time, securing nearly 10 percent of the votes. In the 1994 polls, the TDP aligned with the CPI and CPI(M), winning 216, where the Left parties won 34 Assembly seats. The BJP contested solo, winning three seats in the Assembly.

Chandrababu Naidu, who was the convenor for the United Front — a coalition government against the BJP — voted in favour of the saffron party in the no-confidence motion in 1998, and hence remained a key figure in Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s government.

In the 1999 Andhra Assembly elections, the TDP, now led by Naidu, entered into a pre-poll pact with the BJP and won 180 seats, while the BJP won 12 seats. Naidu assumed the role of chief minister for the first time through public mandate.

Naidu and the BJP went to the polls together in 2004 as part of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) but lost power to YS Rajasekhara Reddy of the Congress. In this election, the BJP won two seats, while the TDP secured 47 seats. Naidu later stepped out from the alliance with the BJP.

Ten years later, in 2014, the BJP and TDP joined hands again with campaign support from the newly-launched Jana Sena. While Jana Sena didn’t contest the elections, the TDP won 102 seats and 15 MPs, and the BJP won four Assembly seats and two MPs.

The relations between the three parties soured, leading to the separation of Jana Sena, TDP, and BJP for the 2019 elections. TDP won just 23 seats in the Assembly, the Jana Sena won one seat, and the BJP secured 0.9 percent vote share — less than NOTA.