Telangana set for a bipolar contest in Assembly polls, with competition closer than BRS anticipated

Its closest and practically only rival — the Indian National Congress — has been on an upward trajectory with its campaigns, especially in rural areas.

In contrast, the BJP, which had till recently appeared confident of replacing the Congress as the primary contender against the BRS in Telangana, has been on a downward spiral. Even a change in state leadership has done little to help the BJP recuperate, and dissent continues with leaders threatening to shift camps.

In the last few months, the Congress has seen a spike, a slump, and a spike again in its momentum — the latest push coming from its announcement of six guarantees and the continued migration of BRS and BJP leaders to its camp.

Related: Telangana to vote in single phase on 30 Nov; results on 3 Dec

The vote-share gap

The breather for the BRS, however, is the huge vote-share gap that Congress has to cover before it has a shot at replacing KCR’s party as the ruling dispensation in Telangana.

If one were to take an average from the internal estimates of two political parties, the BRS currently could hold some 42-43 percent vote share, the Congress seems to have gained ground, with its vote share hovering around 34-35 percent currently. The loss in vote share for BRS stems from anti-incumbency, and desertions of its leaders.

The numbers indicate that the Telangana Assembly election is set to be a bipolar contest.

With Chandrashekhar Rao as its undisputed mass leader, the BRS is aware that anti-incumbency will hurt its performance, but believes it simply isn’t enough to snatch away victory.

“After nine years in office, there is bound to be anti-incumbency. Sometimes it is simply boredom among people who wish to see change, but that alternative is still absent in Telangana. Neither the BJP nor the Congress have emerged as an alternative to the BRS,” a senior office bearer involved in election strategies for BRS, told South First.

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Congress strategy

The Congress, on the other hand, is said to be focusing on turning the tide in its favour by not just enchasing on the anti-incumbency, but getting its caste and community balance right in ticket distribution and appealing to two specific sections — the economically backward and the minority community.

Unlike in Karnataka, where the Congress announced one guarantees after the other to sustain excitement around the largescale welfare schemes, in Telangana it chose to announce all six of its guarantees at once.

The guarantees are specifically aimed at the economically weaker sections.

“My primary job as a ticket aspirant is to convey to people how much they will benefit in a month out of these guarantees. How much additional cash will be in their hand. With different schemes put together, a household could save up to ₹15,000 a month,” a senior office bearer of Telangana Congress told South First.

While some in the Congress suggest that the move to announce all guarantees at once was to create largescale impact among votes who are already used to big ticket welfare schemes announced by the BRS government, the more pragmatic leaders of the party point to the actual reason — paucity of time.

With BJP still struggling to put its house in order, the contest is clearly between BRS and Congress.

“The cadres still don’t understand why Bandi Sanjay was removed as state president. There is confusion over what is to be done from the state unit level to the booth level, but we hope for these issues to be sorted once candidates are announced,” said a BJP State Executive member.

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Marred by groupism at the state unit level, the Congress has turned to its central leaders — especially the Gandhi family and AICC President Mallikarjun Kharge — to lend credibility to its guarantees.

It is for this reason that the party got Sonia Gandhi — who still enjoys goodwill among the people of Telangana over fulfilling the promise of statehood — to announce its guarantees at a mega rally.

To take on a popular leader like KCR, the Congress is using its status as a national party to assure “accountability” on the delivery of its promises more efficiently; it has also been pointing to its “Karnataka model” of delivering on guarantees.

BJP-BRS together narrative

While the AIMIM, although not in alliance with the BRS but enjoying “friendly ties” with it, is confident of winning around half a dozen seats in and around Hyderabad, Muslim community votes across the state is what Congress is eyeing.

Unlike in Karnataka, where the community consolidated firmly behind Congress in a contest directly with the BJP, in Telangana the community has no discontent against BRS or KCR. The Congress is heavily dependent on Muslim community voters to make a last-minute switch in its favour closer to the elections.

In the meanwhile, its leaders have been consistently trying to push one idea that “a vote for any party other than the Congress, is a vote for BJP”.

The grand old party has been partially successful in building a narrative that the BJP and BRS have a tacit understanding. BJP’s own leaders, like Komatireddy Rajagopal Reddy, questioning the party’s softening stance on BRS MLC and KCR’s daughter K Kavitha in the Delhi liquor license case, has only helped in the narrative-building.

Telangana as a microcosm for 2024 Lok Sabha

“The Muslim community will choose to back Congress because a victory in Telangana will strengthen the Congress at the national level to take on the BJP. The community will look at the larger picture,” a senior member of Congress election strategy team told South First, suggesting that the party hopes the community will look at Telangana Assembly polls as a microcosm of 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

The party is hopeful of Mallikarjun Kharge winning over Dalit community votes while it is banking on its candidate selection process to woo the Backward Classes (BC) communities.

With even its incumbent MLAs deserting the party and its rival closing in faster than anticipated, the BRS is set to pull out all stops to retain power in Telangana going after one narrative after another of the Congress — from “Karnataka model” to the “settler vote bloc”.