Will global surge in natural rubber prices be a blessing in disguise for BJP, CPI(M) in central Kerala?

Last-minute nominal announcements by the Central and Kerala governments targeted rubber farmers and the vote bank they represent. 

ByK A Shaji

Published Mar 18, 2024 | 10:00 AMUpdatedMar 18, 2024 | 10:00 AM

rubber

The global market for natural rubber has been witnessing a significant surge in prices ever since February, ending the years-long slump in demand — at least temporarily.

With this, the BJP at the Centre and CPI(M) in the state have started efforts to win back the lost confidence of largely-Christian rubber cultivators in the central Kerala region.

A confluence of factors that positively affected the supply and demand dynamics of natural rubber in the global situation appears to have come as a blessing in disguise for the two parties in the run-up to the fast-approaching Lok Sabha elections.

Also Read: Falling rubber price may hurt BJP, CPI(M) prospects in Lok Sabha polls

Recent rubber politics

The price and production costs of rubber change according to the form and quality of the rubber sheets. (Rubber Board of India official website)

The price and production costs of rubber change according to the form and quality of the rubber sheets. (Rubber Board of India official website)

Till recently, the parties and their governments were drawing the ire of the rubber farmers, who had been at the receiving end of the plummeting prices, which went far below the production costs.

Experts in the rubber industry claimed that while importing nations like the United States and Germany depend on other rubber-growing nations like India, the export of natural rubber from Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Indonesia steadily declined as a result of lower production due to climate change.

In the case of Kerala, rubber farmers constitute the deciding factor in Kottayam, Ernakulam, Mavelikkara, Idukki, Pathanamthitta, Alappuzha, Kollam, Thrissur, and Chalakudy Lok Sabha constituencies.

The Central and state governments were keen on giving some solace to the rubber farmers before the Election Commission declared the Lok Sabha election schedule.

Thus, the Union government on Friday, 15 March, announced an incentive to stimulate rubber exports, winning positive responses from the rubber growers in Kerala.

A day later, the LDF government in Kerala came out with an order to increase the support price of rubber by ₹10.

This directive aligns with Finance Minister KN Balagopal’s statement when presenting the state’s Budget in February of this year.

Meanwhile, with the Lok Sabha elections approaching, rubber plantations — especially in central Travancore — have garnered wider political attention.

Kerala rubber farmers

Collection of latex from a rubber tree. (Stock)

While the United Democratic Front (UDF) in the Opposition and the Left Democratic Front (LDF) — currently in power — have long oriented their regional political campaigns towards the rubber sector, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) began aligning its election campaign with a focus on rubber cultivators more recently.

The Bharath Dharma Jana Sena, a key BJP ally contesting for the Kottayam seat this time, has gone further by seeking assurance from the Union government to increase the rubber floor price to ₹250 per kg.

Its chief, Thushar Vellapalli, said the increased floor price would be a reality after the Lok Sabha elections, and that the electorate of Kottayam must vote for him.

Related: Kerala’s LDF government rolls out last-minute measures to woo voters

Of prices and incentives

According to representatives of the Union government-controlled Rubber Board in Kottayam, the institution had established an export promotion cell, and the cell had already announced a ₹5-per-kg incentive for the export of sheet rubber.

According to sources on the Rubber Board, the incentive scheme would be in effect from 15 March to 30 June.

Natural rubber exporters with valid registration and membership certificates issued by the board and registration for using the Indian Natural Rubber logo would be eligible for the incentive.

The officials said the cell would also address various issues concerning farmers and handhold exporters.

Meanwhile, under the Rubber Production Incentive Scheme (RPIS), the state government provides growers with the difference between the guaranteed price of ₹180 per kg and the actual market price.

Growers can claim this amount, which can be credited to their bank accounts through the Rubber Board, by submitting bills from dealers to the rubber production societies.

The Rubber Board field officers verify and upload these bills to the state government’s website.

In addition to increasing the stabilisation price, the state government on Saturday sanctioned ₹24.48 crore to disburse dues under the RPIS to clear rubber growers’ arrears.

As per an official statement, more than 1.5 lakh small and marginal rubber farmers would benefit from this move.

Also Read: Kerala farmers welcome weather-based crop insurance for rubber

Nothing in the budget

Rubber

A rubber plantation in Kerala. (Supplied)

These developments are happening at a time when disease, climate change, and plunging global prices are threatening to deliver a mortal blow to the once-thriving rubber plantations in central Kerala.

Farmers’ bodies were thoroughly disappointed with the absence of any concrete relief in the Union and state budgets this year.

Though the state government raised the support price for natural rubber from ₹170 to ₹180 per kg, most planters South First spoke to said the increase was meaningless given skyrocketing costs — especially the rising wages of rubber tappers.

The local price of natural rubber has crossed ₹190 per kg due to global developments, which has rendered the nominal increase in support price meaningless.

This is why Congress leader and Kottayam MLA Thiruvanchoor Radhakrishnan described the ₹10 increase as “humiliation to the suffering farmers”, adding that it would do little to bring back those who had already quit rubber farming — or even help revive the sector.

How the disappointment of the planters — mostly affluent Christians — will influence the “rubber politics” of the region and impact the upcoming Lok Sabha election remains to be seen at a time when both the BJP and the CPI(M), which leads the LDF, are seeking to wean them away from their preferred party, the Congress.

In the last Assembly election, the LDF wrested several seats in the Kottayam, Ernakulam, Idukki, Pathanamthitta, Kannur, and Kollam districts from the Congress by promising the plantation owners a minimum support price of ₹250 per kg of procured rubber.

The state unit of the BJP, keen on opening its account in Kerala in the Lok Sabha elections by wooing Christian voters, had raised expectations of a set of announcements in the Union budget — including a drastic cut in the import of natural rubber and an MSP of ₹300 per kg.

These steps, it said, would infuse new life into the ailing rubber cultivation sector.

This had found resonance among the rubber planters, and several Christian leaders — including bishops like Joseph Pamplany of Thalassery — welcomed the move, saying that the followers of the Church would not mind voting for the BJP if it delivered on its promises.

However, on 1 February, the farmers were left deeply disappointed as Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s budget speech did not even mention their grievances, let alone any concrete steps.

So far, the BJP and the CPI (M) have gotten away by holding the earlier Congress-led Union governments responsible for falling rubber prices, claiming they entered into trade agreements allowing “discriminatory imports” that impacted the local growers.

Now, both the BJP-led Union government and the CPI(M) at the state level are targets of the rubber cultivators’ wrath. And the simmering discontent will likely influence voting patterns in the April-May Lok Sabha elections.

Also Read: Will Kerala’s rubber politics take Christian community closer to BJP?

More disappointment

According to the official data, Kerala has over 18 lakh rubber-cultivating families, and over 14.5 lakh of them — mostly Catholic Christians — are solely dependent on rubber plantations.

Kerala farmers crop insurance for rubber coconut

A woman drying rubber sheets in Central Kerala. Photo: Supplied.

Peter Abraham, a farmer in Muvattupuzha in central Kerala’s Ernakulam district, told South First the entire rubber-grower community was feeling dejected despite the cosmetic reliefs as it had hoped at least the recommendations of the MS Swaminathan Committee, which studied the sector, would be implemented.

The Swaminathan Committee wanted the support price to be calculated based on a combination of the exact production cost and half of the production cost.

The Rubber Board has affirmed that the production cost per kg was ₹210; if so, the support price should be ₹315 per kg.

“They can at least ensure ₹250 per kg. What is now happening is sheer humiliation,” Abraham said.

The farmers are also angry with the state government’s lack of progress in establishing the long-awaited Kerala Rubber Limited, which was expected to commercially process rubber to make value-added products.

The budget allocated a mere ₹9 crore to the project against an expected expenditure of ₹250 crore.

Also Read: Kerala producers say Rubber Board partisan to tyre manufacturers

The political tussle

Along with the BJP and the CPI(M), the regional outfit Kerala Congress (Mani) is also facing the heat of the anger of rubber farmers.

The third-largest constituent in the ruling LDF, the KC(M) has Christians as its mass base, who are mostly rubber planters and agriculturists in central Kerala.

Thomas Chazhikadan, a senior KC(M) leader and a Lok Sabha member from Kottayam, raised the issue of a support price of ₹250 per keg for rubber at the recently-concluded Nava Kerala Sadas, the Kerala government’s mass outreach programme at Kottayam, and was instantly admonished by Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan.

While delivering the welcome address, the MP mentioned the worsening financial condition of rubber farmers and reminded the chief minister about the promise to institute a support price.

The promise of a ₹250-per-kg support price had persuaded the KC(M), who was a member of the UDF, to switch sides just before the Assembly election in 2021.

The chief minister did not like the MP raising the issue. To the surprise of those present on the occasion, Vijayan admonished Chazhikadan in his speech, saying the speaker before him lacked any idea of the objectives of the outreach programme.

Though the senior Lok Sabha member remained silent, the issue created differences between the CPI(M) and the KC(M), with a section of leaders demanding that the smaller party’s chairman Jose K Mani rethink continuing with the LDF.

Mar Joseph Pamplany, the Archbishop of Thalassery, wearing the traditional farmers' cap. (Supplied).

Mar Joseph Pamplany, the Archbishop of Thalassery, wearing the traditional farmers’ cap. (Supplied).

Several bishops across the state, too, have raised concerns about the LDF government disregarding the “genuine worries” of the rubber cultivators — among the more affluent farmers of the state.

However, those bishops who supported the BJP, hoping the Union budget would extend help to rubber farmers, have landed themselves in trouble.

Now, Vijayan seems to have sorted out the issue, and Chazhikadan is contesting again in the Kottayam constituency.

Another Christian party — the Kerala Congress (J), a key constituent of the Opposition Congress-led UDF — has started efforts to utilise the prevailing displeasure among rubber cultivators by highlighting how the Union and state governments have ignored them.

Lapses in the implementation of the RPIS have been another tool for the KC(J) to mount attacks on the KC(M) in particular and the LDF in general.

Under the RPIS, the government is supposed to provide rubber growers with ₹170 per kg.

Farmers said it involved complex procedures, and there was a delay in releasing the approved amount.

“Policies of the Union government have negatively impacted rubber prices,” Jose K Mani, a Rajya Sabha member and KC(M) chairman, told South First.

“The country receives ₹7,800 crore from rubber imports annually, but the authorities refuse to allocate ₹500 crore towards a Rubber Price Stabilisation Fund. We will highlight this to the people,” he added.

Meanwhile, Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan said in a recent statement: “The Union government has not been paying the subsidy meant for rubber farmers for the past several months. The Central government has also not considered increasing import duties to restrict the import of natural rubber, citing global trade agreements.”

He added: “It is also not ready to consider rubber as an agricultural product, and it continues to be treated as an industrial raw material.”

Vijayan also accused the Union government of keeping rubber prices low to benefit the country’s tyre manufacturing monopolies.

The rubber cultivators contribute 2.5 percent to the state GST while setting aside the same quantum of GST for the Union government.

Among the crops in the state, rubber is the only one that pays tax and is second only to coconut in terms of cultivation area.