Annamalai said his padayatra has two goals: Project Narendra Modi as prime minister for a third term, and expose DMK's corruption.
Tamil Nadu BJP state chief Annnamalai adressing people at the 'En Mann En Makkal' yatra. (annamalai_k/ Twitter)
It has been 20 days since K Annamalai, the state BJP president, started his rally, Enn Mann, Enn Makkal (My Land, My People), to cover 234 Assembly constituencies in Tamil Nadu.
Union Home Minister and senior party leader Amit Shah flagged off the yatra from Rameswaram on 28 July and walked with Annamalai for half a kilometre. The real yatra, however, began on 31 July.
Aiming at the 2024 parliamentary elections, Annamalai said that he was embarking on the padayatra — foot march — for two reasons. One, to project Narendra Modi as the prime minister, and, two, to expose the DMK’s corruption.
The BJP leader started his first phase of the road rally covering the southern part of Tamil Nadu. Unlike other regions, south Tamil Nadu has a unique, diverse socio-communal political landscape.
Dindigul, Theni, Madurai, Virudhunagar, and Sivagangai districts have mixed community-based voters. Mukkulathor, Devendrakula Vellalar, and Nadars are the prominent communities.
The majority of Mukkulathors have been backing the AIADMK.
After the death of AIADMK supremo J Jayalalithaa and the change in the party’s top leadership, the Mukkulathor vote bank split, with a section pledging allegiance to TTV Dhinakaran, who floated the Amma Makkal Munetra Kalagam (AMMK). AIADMK rebel leader O Panneerselvam, too, has significant clout over the community in Theni.
Devendrakula Vellalars, a Scheduled Caste community, are spread over Dindigul, Tirunelveli, and Tenkasi. Over the past few years, the BJP has succeeded in making inroads into the community’s vote bank.
In Kanniyakumari, Rameswaram, and Thoothukudi, fishermen communities and Nadars are dominant.
“Well begun is half done,” goes the proverb. Has Annamalai begun well? Political observers do not think that the BJP has begun well.
Speaking to South First, political observer Sumanth Raman said that the yatra may well help to boost the image and popularity of Annamalai, but whether that image would turn into votes was doubtful.
“Ideologically, DMK voters will not vote for the BJP. I see it is an attempt to eat into the AIADMK vote share,” he said.
“Over the days, there is no such a huge impact as expected, but it will have a small impact on the voters who have anti-incumbency feelings towards the DMK government,” he opined when asked about the possible impact of the yatra.
“In the past, the BJP made efforts to woo the Devendrakula Vellalar community and, through this yatra, Annamalai is trying to build some caste-based platform in southern Tamil Nadu. But it is difficult to say whether the move will succeed or not. We will have to wait and see,” Raman added.
Savukku Shankar, whistle-blower and political analyst, felt Annamalai would not dent the AIADMK vote bank.
“Since the yatra is taken up targeting the 2024 polls, the question of eating into the AIADMK votes doesn’t arise because they both are going to contest together. This yatra will not give any advantage to Annamalai in terms of vote share,” he opined.
Explaining the reasons for his analysis, Shankar said, “Annamalai is making a pitch against the DMK. The AIADMK is already winning a majority of the anti-DMK votes.”
“In case the AIADMK votes go to Annamalai, he should have done something to woo the AIADMK cadres. But Annamalai had failed to do so. He abused the AIADMK leaders and the BJP high command had to intervene to keep the alliance going,” he pointed out.
“Being an ally, Annamalai, in the recent past, has ditched the AIADMK high command. In such a scenario, on what basis would the AIADMK votes shift to Annamalai,” he asked.
Shankar then explained the normal scenario for a shift in voters’ preferences. “The AIADMK voters should have an impression that Annamalai is better at opposing the DMK or he is better than Edappadi Palaniswami. Unfortunately, Annamalai hasn’t proved anything like that to win the AIADMK votes,” he added.
Shankar felt the yatra was unlikely to have a huge impact.
“Annamalai started the yatra by saying that he would expose the DMK’s corruption. But what did he expose other than releasing the second part of DMK Files, which did not gain much traction among the people and the media?”
“In such a yatra, you have to expose such scams at important places. But the BJP leader hasn’t done anything so far,” he pointed out.
“One should not forget that Annamalai’s vote bank is anti-DMK voters. Annamalai, through this yatra, is trying to turn the young voters across communities, who are against the Dravidian parties. Except for boosting his persona, this yatra will not give the desired results for Annamalai,” Shankar said.
Apart from Mukkulathor and Devendrakula Vellalar communities, the Nadar — an intermediate community — is prominent in Virudhunagar, Thoothukudi, and Kanniyakumari districts.
The majority of the Nadar community votes have been shared among the DMK, Congress, and Naam Tamilar party. Except for garlanding the Nadar community leaders’ statue, Annamalai has not delivered any poll assurance.
Dhinakaran’s AMMK has a strong vote base in the southern districts and the party has been a deciding factor in the previous Assembly elections in nearly a dozen constituencies.
Penetrating the AMMK vote bank would be tough for Annamalai since he had failed to bring the party into the BJP-AIADMK alliance. O Panneerselvam (OPS) and Dhinakaran have now joined hands to fight the Lok Sabha elections.
Political analyst Ravindran Duraisamy, however, felt the yatra would boost the BJP’s prospects and help while negotiating for seats with the AIADMK.
“The BJP is likely to raise the TTV Dhinakaran, OPS, and the Patali Makkal Katchi (PMK) factors while negotiating for seats. The BJP will get at least 10 more seats from the AIADMK in the Lok Sabha polls,” he opined.
“As EPS does not want to let BJP out of the alliance, he will agree to Annamalai’s demand since he is using the yatra to consolidate the anti-DMK votes,” Duraisamy said.
However, he added that only the results of the Lok Sabha elections will say whether the padayatra was successful.
May 16, 2024
May 16, 2024
May 16, 2024
May 16, 2024
May 16, 2024
May 16, 2024
