Ready reckoner: Key Lok Sabha contests in 102 seats going to polls on 19 April

The phase will decide the fate of many personalities, from Kanimozhi to Annamalai, Tamilisai Soundararajan to O Panneerselvam, Nitin Gadkari to Kiren Rijiju, and Gaurav Gogoi to Nakul Nath.

This phase will fully cover 10 states and UTs, while 11 will be partially covered.

Also Read: PM Modi may huff and puff, but Tamil Nadu remains lukewarm

BJP’s ‘South Push’

A phalanx of top politicians is in the fray in Tamil Nadu for 2024. BJP has made the state its threshold into the Dravidian region. Its leaders, spearheaded by Narendra Modi, have canvassed in every district. Modi visited nearly all significant temples.

The saffron party sought to entice the Tamil people by claiming the existence of friendly northern and Dravidian cultures from ancient times. They initiated the Kashi Tamil Samagam, a cross-cultural initiative. Then came the travel of the religious symbol, the Sengol, to the new Parliament building.

The electoral rhetoric of the BJP leaders sought to target the ruling DMK for its “ills” and “dynastic corruption”, taking care to treat the people of the state as innocent victims.

The crunch time has now arrived. BJP state president K Annamalai is responsible for winning Coimbatore. Former Telangana Governor Tamilisai Soundararajan is in Chennai South. They form the fulcrum of BJP’s Tamil push.

DMK has its usual list of luminaries in this phase, led by Chief Minister MK Stalin’s sister Kanimozhi in Thoothukudi. Other notables include Dayanidhi Maran from Chennai Central.

Karti Chidambaram, son of senior Congress leader P Chidambaram, tests his fate from Sivaganga, which he plans to retain in 2024.

Former chief minister O Paneerselvam and TTV Dhinakaran, nephew of VK Sasikala, a confidante of the late J Jayalalithaa, round up the well-known contestants.

Also Read: Race for the second spot in TN, Telangana in Lok Sabha

Several dynasties at stake across India

Among the prominent faces in the rest of the country in this phase is Union Road Transport and Highways Minister Nitin Gadkari. He is seeking a hat-trick of wins from the Nagpur seat, which he retained in 2019 by defeating current Maharashtra Congress chief Nana Patole by 2.16 lakh votes.

His Cabinet colleague Kiren Rijiju is in Arunachal West. Others in the fray from the Modi ministry are Arjun Ram Meghwal (Bikaner), Jitendra Singh (Udhampur), Sarbananda Sonowal (Dibrugarh), and Nisith Pramanik (Cooch Behar).

Members of two dynasties of Congress leaders with links to the Nehru-Gandhi family are also trying their luck in this phase. They are Gaurav Gogoi from Jorhat in Assam and Nakul Nath from Chhindwara in Madhya Pradesh.

Gaurav is the son of former Assam chief minister Tarun Gogoi. The senior Gogoi, his brother Dip, and now Gaurav have a stranglehold over the Jorhat “family” seat.

The youngest Gogoi faces a serious contest this time because one person intends to defeat him and, by extension, his dynasty. And that is Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma. The latter has left no stone unturned to cause an upset.

Meanwhile, Nakul is the son of Kamal Nath. The senior Congress leader, his wife Alka, and Nakul have won this seat 11 times between them. That’s a family bastion, for sure. Even in the middle of the Modi wave in 2019 and 2023, Chhindwara stood firmly behind the Nath family.

However, Kamal Nath’s close aides’ departure from Congress to BJP in the last couple of months has severely affected the ageing leader. Madhya Pradesh asks: Can he get his son a victory in 2024?

Kamal Nath may be ruing the absence of a strong patron to ensure Nakul’s smooth victory. All those days ago, when Kamal Nath was contesting from Chhindwara for the first time in the 1980 elections, Indira Gandhi came to the town, addressed a rally, and told the people, “He is my third son. Please take care of him.” The people made her a promise, which they have kept to date.

There is another semi-dynasty in this phase: The Sanjay Gandhi branch. At least 10 times have mother and son Maneka Gandhi and Feroze Varun Gandhi represented Pilibhit and Sultanpur in Uttar Pradesh.

This time, BJP ignored Varun, perhaps irritated by his plain-speak. The mother is contesting from Sultanpur. Strangely, while Maneka has won the last few elections with forgettable margins, Varun always returned with thumping victories.

Reality check: No bar on nepotism in BJP for elections, turncoats

Paswan legacy in Bihar

The late Ram Bilas Paswan used to tell those who had heard this before that he was the tallest Dalit leader Bihar had ever produced. He had a Guinness record for winning by the biggest margin. He nurtured Hajipur as his constituency for decades.

After his death, his son Chirag Kumar Paswan staked claim to the Dalit leadership. That led to a split between him and his father’s brother, Pashupati Paras.

Chirag wants to use the 2024 opportunity to wrest the mantle from his uncle, for which he has come up with a strategy.

He decided not to retain his Jamui seat, instead giving it to his brother-in-law Arun Bharti, who is the Lok Janshakti Party candidate from there.

It is said that Chirag wants to contest from Hajipur, his father’s seat, which his uncle Paras currently holds. He is willing to make any kind of adjustments or alliance with BJP to this end. He even recently held detailed talks with BJP national president JP Nadda.

The issue now is how to placate Paras if he is willing to be persuaded to leave Hajipur for some consideration.

Also Read: LS election a fight between 3 ideologies, says Rahul Gandhi

The most sensitive of elections 

Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently said that Assembly elections would be held in Jammu and Kashmir at the right time. In the first phase of 2024, only the Udhampur Lok Sabha constituency in the state will go to polls.

Manipur is the second-most sensitive state after Kashmir. Of this state, which has been witnessing civil turmoil for over a year, Modi said in an interview in early April: “Because of the timely intervention of the Government of India and efforts made by the Government of Manipur, there has been a marked improvement in the situation of the state.”

Reality seems to differ. The Election Commission decided that the only two Lok Sabha seats in Manipur could not go to polls simultaneously. The reasons are the brewing social tension, lack of political intervention, and security issues.

So, it split polling into two phases. The Inner Manipur constituency goes to polls on 19 April, and the Outer Manipur seat will see a two-phase polling on 19 and 26 April.

Inner Manipur, with substantial Meitei voters, is held by BJP. Outer Manipur is reserved for Scheduled Tribes. Naga and Kuki leaders have represented this constituency. However, most of the candidates are reportedly Nagas this time.

That is because the Kukis have decided not to contest. News reports in the last couple of days said that civil society organisations from the Kuki-zo community wrote to the Chief Election Commissioner about their desire not to take part in polling because of recurring violence.

(Edited by Arkadev Ghoshal)