Peninsular India: Expect searing summer early this year with above-normal temperatures

The hot season of March to May is expected to witness above-normal temperatures. As India Meteorological Department (IMD) seasonal forecasts show, sea surface temperatures are also expected to remain high. Last Thursday, temperatures in many parts of Thiruvananthapuram reached 36 degrees Celsius. Weather data says it feels like 43 degrees because of the humidity. That is beyond my comfort zone.

That feeling is because of the heat index. That is what the body feels because of the relative humidity and the ambient air temperature. When the body gets too hot, it perspires to cool off. In a humid environment, this evaporation from the body decreases. That’s why people feel warmer on humid coasts.

Also read: Extreme weather events in 2023

Expect humid weather in peninsular India

As such, the temperatures are higher than usual. IMD reported last Thursday that minimum temperatures were “appreciably above normal (by 3.1 to 5.0 degrees Celsius)” at many places over the Konkan, Goa and Marathwada; at a few places over north and south interior Karnataka and above normal (1.6°C to 3.0 degree Celsius) at most places over Telangana and coastal Karnataka; and isolated places over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal.

Maximum temperatures were appreciably above normal at a few places over Konkan and Goa; above normal at many places over Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam Kerala, Mahe, Coastal Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal and Lakshadweep; and at isolated places over Telangana.

“Hot and humid weather is very likely to prevail over south Peninsular India,” IMD said. Meanwhile, parts of north India had a respite with rain and snowfall due to a western disturbance and high moisture feeding from the Arabian Sea.

Global temperatures are rising due to climate change. This year saw the warmest January globally, with an average surface air temperature of 13.14 degrees Celsius, 0.70 degrees Celsius above the 1991-2020 average for January. It was the eighth month in a row that was the warmest on record for the respective month, Copernicus Climate, a European science initiative, said.

Also read: Need better weather forecasts

Heat waves in some parts of India?

El Niño, denoting the periodic warming of the tropical Eastern Pacific Ocean that drives up temperatures in many parts of the world, began to weaken, but marine air temperatures, in general, remained at an unusually high level, scientists noted. As the ongoing El Niño event is expected to last at least until April 2024, more warm weather is expected in many parts of the world, including India.

Many parts of India might see heat waves, as forecasts indicate. Qualitatively, a heat wave is a condition of air temperature that is harmful or even fatal. Quantitatively, it is defined based on the temperature thresholds over a region in terms of actual temperature or its departure from normal. IMD considers it a heat wave if the maximum temperature of a station reaches at least 40 degrees Celsius or more for plains and at least 30 degrees Celsius or more for hill regions, or it involves 4.5 to 6.4 degrees Celsius departure from normal. A departure of over 6.4 degrees from normal is considered a severe heatwave.

The Minister of Earth Sciences, Kiren Rijiju, recently said: “Over the past several years, India has experienced increasing heat waves affecting the health and livelihood of vulnerable communities across several States. The intensity and frequency of Heat Waves have recently increased, with climate change driving temperatures even higher. The number of States affected by Heat Waves has been increasing.”

That means we urgently need to figure out ways to prevent extreme weather and heat wave impacts.