Published Sep 01, 2026 | 9:00 AM ⚊ Updated Sep 01, 2026 | 9:00 AM
TN CM Vijay and Rahul Gandhi share a close bond. But is that in danger of fraying? (Special Arrangement)
Synopsis: There is a clear effort to present Vijay as a national leader. But the Tamil Nadu Chief Minister may not need to become Prime Minister for the campaign to benefit him. If TVK wins a substantial number of Lok Sabha seats, the party could become important to the formation of the next government. Along with giving Vijay the leverage he is possibly aiming for, that could indirectly help Rahul Gandhi too…
A new political question is emerging in Tamil Nadu: Is Vijay’s campaign for the Prime Minister’s post in 2029 a serious ambition, a bargaining strategy, or something that could ultimately help Rahul Gandhi?
The question may appear premature. The next Lok Sabha election is nearly three years away, and Vijay has been Chief Minister for only a little over 100 days. However, the effort to present him as a national leader is already visible.
This is not limited to speeches by leaders of Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK). Hindi-language social media influencers in several states have been posting videos praising Vijay and attributing achievements and decisions to him. Some claims are false.
India Today, for instance, found Hindi influencers repeating identical claims that Vijay had ordered the execution of rapists and that private hospitals could not collect bills if a patient died. Videos from places such as Varanasi and Mumbai feature supposed street interviews asking whether Vijay should become Prime Minister. Some compare him favourably with Narendra Modi or Yogi Adityanath.
An investigation by The Commune alleged that some influencers were seeking payment, with one reportedly quoting ₹75,000 for a reel and a story. The allegation does not establish that the money came directly from TVK. But the coordinated-looking content and false claims suggest an effort to build an image of Vijay as a national figure.
The sequence is important. The social media content initially suggests that people outside Tamil Nadu admire Vijay. TVK leaders then begin discussing him as a possible national leader.
Minister Aadhav Arjuna, who is also the TVK’s general secretary for election campaign management, has argued that the next Prime Minister should come from the South. Arjuna’s party colleague and fellow minister D Sarathkumar has openly backed Vijay for the 2029 race. The campaign has therefore moved from social media to political discourse.
However, can Vijay realistically become Prime Minister in 2029?
At present, the numbers do not support it. Tamil Nadu has only 39 Lok Sabha seats. Even a sweep would not give TVK anything close to the numbers required to form a government at the Centre. Vijay would therefore need a large national coalition willing to accept him as its leader.
TVK also has no political organisation outside Tamil Nadu. This is why the PM campaign may have another purpose.
Vijay may not need to become Prime Minister for the campaign to benefit him. If TVK wins a substantial number of Lok Sabha seats, the party could become important to the formation of the next government. Vijay could then use the PM claim to strengthen his negotiating position with larger national parties.
The development creates a difficult situation for the Congress. The party has supported the formation of the TVK government after the Assembly election. TVK had won 108 seats, ten short of the majority mark. The Congress was the first party to join hands with them back then.
The Tamil Nadu Congress Committee president Manickam Tagore has since reminded everyone that Vijay had called Rahul Gandhi after the election seeking Congress support to form the government. Tagore has also criticised TVK leaders for projecting Vijay as Prime Minister while remaining in what he described as “fan-club mode”.
But there remains an inherent problem for the Congress. It needs TVK in Tamil Nadu, where its own independent strength is limited. It may also need an electoral understanding with Vijay in the 2029 Lok Sabha election. The TVK becoming a Congress-led national ally cannot be taken for granted.
The distinction is important. The Congress and TVK are partners in the Tamil Nadu government. They may also have electoral reasons to cooperate in the Lok Sabha election. But their long-term national alignment is still uncertain.
Rahul Gandhi remains the Congress’ principal national face and a possible Prime Ministerial candidate. Vijay is now being presented by his own party as a possible alternative. The Congress therefore has to consider whether its support is helping create a future political competitor.
The BJP adds another element to this uncertainty. The TVK has described the BJP as an ideological opponent and has ruled out an alliance with it. Yet TVK’s position cannot simply be assumed to be identical to the Congress’ position on every issue. This was visible during the recent Assembly debate on delimitation.
VCK minister Vanni Arasu criticised Amit Shah and the Centre. Aadhav Arjuna objected to the remarks and sought the removal of references to Modi and Shah from the Assembly record. While this does not establish that TVK is moving towards the BJP, it underscores subtle differences in approach.
The intervention came even as the BJP continued to criticise Vijay and his government. It shows that TVK may want to maintain its own political position rather than follow the Congress on every national issue. For the Congress, this raises an important question: if TVK wins a significant number of Lok Sabha seats, will it join a Congress-led national coalition, remain independent, or negotiate with different parties depending on the numbers?
The answer could depend on the result of the 2029 election.
If there is a hung Parliament and TVK wins a substantial number of seats in Tamil Nadu, Vijay could have considerable bargaining power. He would not need enough seats to form a government on his own. All he would need are enough seats to become difficult to ignore.
In that situation, the Congress could still benefit. Vijay has a political base in Tamil Nadu but lacks the Congress’s national organisation. The Congress has a national organisation but has limited independent strength in Tamil Nadu. A Rahul Gandhi-led coalition supported by a strong TVK could therefore be more realistic than a Vijay-led national coalition.
This is why the ‘Vijay for PM’ campaign could ultimately help Rahul Gandhi as well. If Vijay uses the campaign mainly to increase TVK’s importance, he may eventually conclude that becoming the leader of a national coalition is less practical than becoming a powerful coalition partner. The Congress could then provide the national structure, while Vijay provides a significant bloc of seats from Tamil Nadu.
But Congress cannot assume that outcome. By helping TVK govern Tamil Nadu and expand its political legitimacy, Congress may also be helping a party that could compete with it in the future. The question is therefore not simply whether Congress can use Vijay. Vijay may also be using the Congress to consolidate his own political position.
The delimitation debate gives Vijay an issue with national relevance. His emphasis on protecting Tamil Nadu’s parliamentary representation and the political voice of the southern states allows him to address concerns beyond his state. The Congress supports these concerns, but Vijay can also use them to establish an independent national position.
The real question then is not whether Vijay can become Prime Minister in 2029. It is whether the PM campaign can give him enough political weight to negotiate from a position of strength after the election. If it does, the Congress will have to decide whether to work with that strength or compete with it.
Also Read:
N Marie Wilson’s faith and the test of secularism in Tamil Nadu
Can Tamil Nadu become a $1.5 trillion economy with less government spending?
The BJP’s great South India challenge—and why it matters
(P John J Kennedy is an educator, columnist, and political analyst. Edited by R Rajesh Kumar.)
