Hyderabad LS seat: Would it be a cake walk for Owaisi as BJP, Congress help indirectly?

However, she is new to politics. Questions about whether she had a primary party membership followed the floating of her name.

This image of the BJP candidate might help Owaisi consolidate his position among the Muslim voters, who are a clear majority in the constituency.

Also read: Congress will be in power for ten years

Revanth-Owaisi bonhomie

On the other hand, the ruling Congress chief minister A Revanth Reddy and Hyderabad MP Asaduddin Owaisi have praised each other to the hilt.

Owaisi wished a smooth and uneventful five-year term for Telangana Chief Minister Revanth Reddy and described him as tenacious and stubborn when pursuing a goal. He said, “This trait of tenacity had made him the state’s chief minister.”

Revanth reciprocated by praising Owaisi sky-high, describing him as an indomitable leader in his constituency. He confessed that he tried to defeat Owaisi but could not and finally gave up the efforts. “Owaisi speaks on behalf of 140 crore people of the country in Parliament and not just Muslim minorities,” Reddy pointed out.

These encomiums were at a function after laying the foundation in Old City for the Hyderabad Airport Metro Project on Friday, 8 March. As both the leaders shook hands warmly and wished each other the best, one felt that the political kaleidoscope in Old City was slowly altering.

The Revanth Reddy–Owaisi overtures are mutually helpful. Reddy is keen to be in the saddle for the next ten years. He made no secret of his ambition and kept saying that the Congress should be in power for the next decade, like his predecessor, K Chandrashekar Rao.

Also read: Warming up to AIMIM

Vulnerability of Congress

But his government is positioned precariously with a wafer-thin majority in the Assembly, vulnerable to attack from within and without. The Congress won only 64 seats and its ally CPI, one, taking the alliance’s strength to 65 in a house of 119 members.

The BRS is strong with 38 seats (one legislator died in a road accident recently). The BJP has eight members, and the AIMIM has seven. For the last ten years, the MIM has been a trusted friend of the BRS. On several occasions, KCR and Owaisi said they regarded themselves as each other’s alter egos.

Given the constant rumour that the BRS has the covert support of the BJP and the AIMIM, which has seven members in its kitty, it is understandable that Revanth Reddy always remains on edge. If six MLAs defect to the opposition camp, the government slips into a minority. In such an eventuality, the Governor could ask the BRS, the second largest party, to explore the possibility of forming a government. He might even give enough time for it to spirit away as many Congress MLAs as possible.

The Governor, a BJP-led Union government appointee, would always want to see the last of the Congress government. When the opportune time comes, the Governor may strike based on instructions from Delhi bosses.

To preclude the possibility of such attempts, Revanth Reddy has been trying to woo the MIM to his side so that he can pre-empt the BRS from any such moves. From the first day of assuming office as chief minister, he has been overly nice to the AIMIM.

The chief minister has been taking the MIM legislators into confidence for all the work he intends to do in Old City. He tried to win the people’s hearts when he called Old City the original city and said he would remain focused on developing it. He said these words while laying the foundation for a Metro link to the Airport from Old City. He also referred to how he intended to develop the Musi River Front on the lines of the Thames River Front in London, mainly to please the Muslims.

Related: Sparks fly in Andhra Assembly

The Musi-Thames connection

In January, Revanth and Akbaruddin Owaisi studied the Thames River Front together. The pictures of the two leaders visiting the London Shard, a 309-metre-high skyscraper from where they studied the project, went viral on social media platforms. It fuelled speculation that the distance between the two parties was fast narrowing after the Congress victory in the Assembly elections. Ahead of the elections, the Congress had attacked the AIMIM that it was the B-Team of the BJP, always trying to help it win elections in the North by splitting the Muslim votes.

There is speculation now that it would be a win-win situation for Owaisi and Revanth to join forces. The MIM would have more bargaining power, and Revanth could benefit from the AIMIM not splitting Muslim votes in the rest of Telangana. One factor that led to the Congress victory was a significant chunk of Muslim votes going to Congress, with the narrative that the BRS and BJP were in league and gaining traction.

Congress might revert to its pre-2014 policy of not fielding any powerful candidates in any of the AIMIM’s seven segments in the old city in return for the latter not contesting the rest of the seats in Telangana. After the state’s formation in 2014, the MIM and BRS had a similar relationship, which continued for ten years. Now, the indication is that Congress and AIMIM would have the same modus vivendi in the LS elections.

The key takeaway from the changed approach of AIMIM and Congress signals a return to pre-2014 days, when Owaisi, contesting from the Hyderabad constituency, could count on Congress to field a weak candidate.

Also read: BJP wants to wrest Hyderabad

Unintended polarisation

Though unintended, the BJP’s choice of the candidate also might lead to the consolidation of Owaisi’s position. In 2019, Owaisi won the seat, defeating Bhagavath Rao of BJP by a margin of 2.82 lakh votes.

The BJP now wants to end the grip of Owaisi and felt that Madhavi Latha would be a better rabble-rouser with her strong Hindutva credentials. Bhagavanth Rao polled 2.35 lakh votes, coming second, but BJP wanted a bigger consolidation, so it fielded Madhavi Latha.

In the process, the MIM might benefit as the very presence of Madhavi Latha in the fray might turn most Muslims towards Owaisi as she looks more like a Sadhvi or religious teacher than a political combatant seeking to win elections. She recently said that, like Satyabhama, who killed Narakasura, she wants to slay Owaisi politically. She profusely quotes from the Bhagavad Gita and says the Gita is more important to politicians than the Indian Constitution.

From the BJP’s perspective, fielding Madhavi Latha might be the only way in which it might attempt to end the dominance of Owaisi in the Hyderabad constituency, but it might end up helping the AIMIM.

With Congress already showing a willingness to help Owaisi, half of the war has already been won even before it has begun.