Kerala can expect some relief by the second week of March when thundershowers are likely and then the temperatures will drop drastically.
Heat wave in Kerala. (iStock)
The Regional Meteorological Centre in Thiruvananthapuram forecast on Thursday, 29 February, that Kerala will continue to experience hot days for another two days, with the situation expected to improve slightly thereafter.
The southern state, which has been experiencing intense heat for the last week, can expect some relief by the second week of March when thundershowers are likely and then the temperatures will drop drastically, IMD director K Santhosh told PTI.
Kerala has been experiencing temperatures that are three to four degrees higher than normal in many places and the IMD has been issuing regular warnings with advisories to the public to prevent sunstroke.
An international study by James Painter from the University of Oxford, a report which was released by NGO Climate Trends, analysed the reportage on heatwaves in India by the Indian media and said the conditions are only going to get more intense due to climate change.
“Kerala has been recording high temperatures for the last one week or so. It is mainly because of light winds and clear skies. Naturally, the temperature will rise. The northern portion and eastern side of the state have been very hot. The wind is also coming from that side.
“There is no mixing, and the wind direction is not favourable. If mixing happens with the sea breeze, then the temperature will drop,” Santhosh said.
He said that at present, the wind pattern is not favourable and the peninsular region has been insulated from the sea breeze.
“This situation will continue for another two days, then the temperature will reduce from the third or fourth day,” he added.
Due to climate change, a small shift in the seasons has happened, with spring getting reduced and the onset of summer being advanced, he said.
Naresh Kumar, Senior Scientist at the IMD said, “The heat hazard warning conditions are being introduced from this year by IMD. The summer forecast is likely to be issued on 1 March instead of 1 April, like it used to be earlier.
“Heat wave days are increasing across all parts of India. For March, the temperature is higher in South Peninsular India. We are issuing high temperature and humidity warnings for Kerala and Rayalaseema. The maximum temperature could go up to 38 degrees and humidity on the higher side,” Kumar said.
Santhosh said that as per their climate change projections, both the maximum and minimum temperatures have been on the rise in Kerala.
“There is a 0.2 to 0.3 degree increase in the maximum temperature and a 0.2 percent rise in the minimum temperature in Kerala when we compare the long-term average. This can be attributed to climate change,” Santhosh said.
He said such a scenario used to be prevalent during the peak summer season in Kerala in the month of April, but now it is prevailing in February itself.
However, the IMD predicts thundershowers in Kerala by the second week of March, a relief for people in the state.
“As our extended rain forecast indicates, Kerala will get thundershowers by the second week of March, between 7 and 14 March, and then the temperature will drop drastically. Kerala is like that,” Santhosh added.
Both the IMD and Kerala State Disaster Management Authority (KSDMA) have been issuing regular public warnings, and even Kerala schools introduced a ‘Water bell’ at 2.30 pm every day, allowing students to break for drinking water during school hours.
Workers are also encouraged to discontinue their work in the open during peak sun hours.
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