Lok Sabha polls: Eedina pre-poll survey predicts 17 seats to Congress in Karnataka, 11 to BJP-JD(S)

Regarding vote share, the 2024 survey says the Congress share may surge by nearly 12 percent compared to the 2019 Lok Sabha Polls. It is expected to get 43.77 percent of the votes.

It grossed 31.88 percent in 2019. The grand old party may also increase its vote tally compared to the last Assembly polls.

In contrast, the BJP-JD(S) vote share is predicted to decline by 18.7 percent compared to the previous parliament election.

The alliance partners are expected to gross 42.35 percent of the votes in 2024. This is much less than in 2019 when the BJP alone secured a record 51.38 percent of the vote.

The JD(S), then in alliance with Congress, got 9.67 percent. Together, they cornered 61.05 percent of the total vote. It is over nine percent less than Edina’s prediction for the alliance in 2024.

Going by the Edina survey, the BJP is likely to witness a decline in its voter share for the first time since the 1996 polls in Karnataka.

The pre-poll survey, which has a sample size of 52,678, highlights that 45.19 percent of respondents felt Narendra Modi should get a third term as prime minister. At the same time, only 33.06 percent felt that Modi’s work was excellent.

The survey was conducted from 15 February to 5 March 2024, before the political parties announced their candidates.

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Seat share projection

Regarding seats, in Karnataka, the JD(S) has an alliance with the BJP-led NDA. The BJP will likely contest in 25 seats, and the JD(S) will contest in three seats. The Congress is going it alone.

The survey predicts that the Congress tally may go up from one seat to a whopping 17, while—despite the alliance—the BJP-JD(S) is expected to get only 11 seats.

In the 2019 polls, the BJP won a record 25 seats, while the Congress, the JD(S), and an independent each won one seat.

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Public opinion on issues

The Eedina survey also collected public opinion on various issues affecting people in the last decade, including prices of essential goods, employment opportunities, corruption and welfare schemes.

According to the survey report, “76.55 percent voters felt that the prices of essential goods have increased, 53.18 percent felt employment opportunities have reduced, and 45.75 percent opined that corruption has increased.”

It said that “42.02 percent felt that gap between rich and poor has increased and 37.63 percent voters felt that welfare schemes have reduced”.

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Political perception

Despite the BJP performing Ayodhya’s Ram Mandir consecration ceremony, the Eedina survey emphasised that merely 33.06 percent of respondents felt that Modi’s work was excellent.

The survey collected voters’ perceptions on various issues, including Congress guarantee schemes, India’s fame on the global stage, Union government schemes, the prime minister’s performance, and Modi’s getting the third term.

According to the survey, 35.8 percent of the surveyed voters felt Narendra Modi’s work was satisfactory, 33.06 percent felt Modi did excellent work, and 45.19 percent wanted to see Modi as the Prime Minister for a third successive term.

A total of 47.64 percent felt that India’s position and fame have surged on global platforms, and 56.14 percent of voters expressed keen interest in voting for Congress’ guarantee schemes. Among the surveyed, 59.28 percent of women favoured “guarantees.”

Among the respondents, 39.67 percent felt that state government guarantee schemes were more helpful than Union government schemes, whereas only 20.31 percent felt otherwise.

A total of 26.31 percent expressed that the Union government and state schemes were helpful for them.

(Edited by Muhammed Fazil)