Kerala, Tamil Nadu under Central scanner as Covid-19 cases surge

According to the ministry official, the dominant variant in all the southern states continues to be a sublineage of Omicron variant BA.2. However, Karnataka has reported finding another sublineage of the same variant, BA.5.

The BA.5 variant

According to reports, the BA.5 variant has recently been causing havoc in several countries, including the US, where scientists and epidemiologists have even taken to Twitter to warn of a surge in hospitalisations and ICU admissions due to Covid.

“It’s not #BA5 alone which is resulting in the #reinfection wave. New sublineages will evolve and will infect those who are at the risk will get infected,” tweeted Dr Giridhara R Babu, epidemiologist and a member of the Technical Advisory Committee from Karnataka, on Thursday.

It’s not #BA5 alone which is resulting in the #reinfection wave.
New sublineages will evolve and will infect those who are at the risk will get infected.

— Dr Giridhar Babu (@epigiri) July 14, 2022

#CovidIsNotOver

Recently, American Public health scientist and epidemiologist Dr Eric Feigl Ding took to Twitter and said: Minimizers: “COVID is over / ignore the new variants.” Epidemiologist who are precautionary: “No, #BA5 is surging. #monkeypox is coming.”

Minimizers: “COVID is over / ignore the new variants.”

Epidemiologist who are precautionary: “No, #BA5 is surging. #monkeypox is coming.”#CovidIsNotOver pic.twitter.com/DhT2SViNhi

— Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) July 14, 2022

With the hashtag CovidIsNotOver he tweeted, “Hospitalisations and ICU admissions for #covid19 are both rising due to #BA5. And these are exponential surges. #CovidIsNotOver.”

?Hospitalizations and ICU admissions for #COVID19 are both rising due to #BA5. And these are exponential surges (log axis). #CovidIsNotOver

HT @DrWilliamKu pic.twitter.com/2ZWMD0R3jG

— Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) July 13, 2022

What do virologists say?

Speaking to South First, Dr Babu warned states to be wary of the BA.5 variant. He said, “It is only a matter of time that other states will also see the R number going up.”

He explained that a greater number of Omicron variants are circulating in India, and in each state is getting affected at different times.

“While the rise in the R value was initially seen in Maharashtra and then Delhi, it spread to Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu. In other states, if the cases are less, the reason could be that the infection is not currently spreading to more and more people. But it can occur in the future,” Babu said.

“Other reasons could be that the background testing rate within that state is not sufficient enough, and, most importantly, the surveillance mechanism for detecting cases actively is not completely efficient in these states.”

BA.5 can replace other variants

Dr Rakesh Mishra, former director of CSIR-Centre for Cellular and Molecular Biology (CCMB), Hyderabad, and current director at the Tata Institute for Genetics and Society (TIGS), said that the US experience suggests that the BA.5 variant can replace another variant.

“Looking at the trends, BA.5 has taken advantage over other variants, though much of the sequencing has to be done,” he told South First.

According to Mishra, all these variants are now better than the previous ones although they are very similar; the BA.5, however, looks like it is better in immune escape.

Surveillance is the key

According to Dr Babu, the BA.4 and BA.5 have been detected in most countries only through what is known as wastewater surveillance.

As infected individuals shed viral RNA in sewer systems, analysis of SARS-CoV-2 in sewage networks provides information about Covid-19 infection within the community. Wastewater-based epidemiology has been carried out in several countries.

“In the future, BA.4 and BA.5 — mostly BA.5 — is definitely going to be the major sublineage in India as well. Because we cannot be immune to one particular lineage when every other country is reporting it,” Babu said.

Former CMC Vellore professor and virologist Dr Jacob John told South First, “Vaccination will help prevent serious illness in any individual. Reinfections can happen with any new variant, or even with the same variant. However, vaccination and surveillance are the keys to managing Covid-19.”