Pawan Kalyan argues that the allocation of 24 seats is justified, citing his party's past performance of securing only one seat.
Pawan Kalyan and Chandrababu Naidu
The politics in Andhra Pradesh currently revolves around the number “24”. It represents the seats secured by the Jana Sena in its alliance with the TDP, as the much-anticipated seat-sharing was announced on Saurday, 24 February.
TDP chief N Chandrababu Naidu stated that his party would contest 151 out of the 175 Assembly seats in the state in the upcoming election, and he has kept a window open for the BJP to discuss seat distribution if the saffron leaders decide to forge an alliance.
But here is the twist. Pawan Kalyan has expressed satisfaction with the seat-sharing pact, and even his arch-rival — the YSRCP — is expectedly not pleased. But that sentiment resonates with his cadre and fans as well!
Why? The number 24 looks too “small” for a “big” leader like Pawan Kalyan, who has been sailing on the aspirations of his supporters of becoming a chief minister from the Kapu clan!
The primary focus on the issue of the “low number of seats” lies in the caste and — by some extension, not to forget — his fandom.
Pawan Kalyan, who has a huge fanbase in the Telugu states following his almost three-decade-long film career, belongs to the Kapu community — a peasant caste estimated to constitute around 20 percent of the Andhra Pradesh’s population.
The community plays a decisive role in elections, particularly in the coastal region of Andhra Pradesh.
For the last four decades following the assassination of Kapu icon and former MLA Vangaveeti Ranga, the community has been on the lookout for a strong leader to represent it.
It has been at odds with the “Kamma” community primarily due to the alleged involvement of Devineni Nehru — a prominent Kamma leader from the Krishna district — in the murder of Ranga.
Nehru had a close association with the then TDP government, led by matinee idol-turned-politician NT Rama Rao (NTR), who also hails from the same community.
The Kapu community has long held the grievance of being politically marginalised during the Reddy-dominated Congress rule.
The community has since then aspired to claim the chief minister’s seat, seeking alternative politics in the state and a Backward Class (BC) reservation category from their current Open Category (OC) status.
Pawan Kalyan, who shares a bitter political experience with his brother Konidela Siva Sankara Vara Prasad, popularly known as Mega Star Chiranjeevi, is perceived as a ray of hope for the community in realising its demands.
Chiranjeevi once floated the Praja Rajyam — a party that merged with the Congress after its 2009 election debacle.
While Pawan Kalyan’s silver-screen charisma is dominant over others, the vigour has not been reflected in his electoral prowess.
Despite campaigning for the TDP-BJP alliance in the 2014 elections, he chose not to contest and later had a fallout with both parties over the “Special Status” issue.
In the 2019 elections, Pawan Kalyan contested with the Left parties and the BSP. Out of 141 Assembly seats, he secured just one, with an overall vote share of approximately 6.8 percent.
Notably, he lost in two significant places — Bhimavaram and Gajuwaka — where the party membership and Kapu community votes are substantial.
The only other seat that saw the Jana Sena securing the runner-up position was Narsapuram; in all other places, it was placed third.
The eventual lone MLA, Rapaka Vara Prasada Rao of the Razole constituency, has already shifted his loyalties to the YSRCP.
Seven months after the humiliating defeat, the BJP and Pawan Kalyan announced a patch-up. This move faced backlash from the cadre due to his popular Che Guevara references in films.
The allusion to the Leftist icon seemed at odds with his alliance with the BJP — a firmly right-wing outfit.
While Pawan Kalyan justified the alliance as being necessary for the state’s progress, he also approached the TDP to form an alliance to consolidate Opposition votes.
When Pawan Kalyan initiated negotiations and announced the pact with the TDP, coinciding with Naidu’s arrest by the AP CID, demands arose from Kapu leaders and his cadre for a “respectable” alliance with the local party.
The prevailing demand was for more than 40 Assembly seats out of the 175 in the alliance and the chief minister’s post being shared between Naidu and Kalyan.
Former MP Chegondi Harirama Jogaiah, the founder of the Kapu Samkshema Sena, explained in an earlier report to South First, “Most Kapus support Pawan Kalyan due to Jagan’s alleged neglect of the community, including the removal of reservation from EWC and lack of discussion on BC reservation status.”
He added: “Considering the historical feud between the Kapus and the Kamma-dominated TDP, the vote transfer without power-sharing for Pawan Kalyan in the alliance is difficult as many Kapus aspire to see him as the chief minister would be disappointed.”
The Kapu leader swiftly expressed his disagreement with Pawan’s acceptance of 24 seats and urged Naidu to announce the power-sharing arrangement between them.
In a letter, he outlined that out of the 94 seats announced by the TDP so far, Kammas secured 24 seats, Reddys got 17 seats, Kapus got 15, and BCs got 25.
He argued that, based on principles of social justice and population, Kapus should be entitled to 25 percent of the seats, while Kammas and Reddy’s should receive only 4-6 percent.
He questioned the basis on which the Jana Sena accepted the 24 seats, expressing doubt that the vote transfer to the TDP might not occur.
Here, vote transfer refers to the possibility that Jana Sena supporters might not vote for the TDP candidate but choose someone else.
In many places, the cadre protested, and leaders of the Jana Sena expressed concerns, stating that vote transfer was unlikely to happen if the TDP didn’t increase the number of seats allotted to Jana Sena.
This is despite Kalyan’s explanation, on the same day while announcing the candidates, “If we had won at least ten seats in the 2019 elections, I would have asked for more seats. Since we didn’t have that opportunity, we agreed to 24 Assembly seats and three parliamentary seats with the aim of achieving a 98 percent strike rate.”
A user on platform X shared, “Despite standing with them in their darkest hour, this seat allocation by the TDP only shows how things will be post-winning. Thank you, Pawan Kalyan; being your fan is the worst nightmare.”
Giving 24 seats to #pawankalyan is only going to backfire @JaiTDP @ncbn
As many @PawanKalyan fans like us will not vote for the TDP party contests as our vote will go to Independent candidates who support PK or Janasena candidate
Despite staying with them at the darkest hour…
— Telugu Box office (@TCinemaFun) February 25, 2024
Another user on X posted, “Some fans feel they deserve more than 24 seats. In reality, they need to focus on maximising wins in these seats. Remember, JSP had 0 seats in 2019. Even Pawan Kalyan wasn’t supported in his seat by these people. First vote, then ask for more seats.”
Some argue that Jana Sena initially responded to ‘fan buzz’ by releasing a list of 32 candidates for the December 2023 Telangana elections, only to later adjust and contest in alliance with the BJP for eight seats. However, the party failed to secure any seats and lost deposits.
Some #JSP & #Pawankalyan fans feel that they deserve more than 24 seats, in reality they need to focus on maximising the win in these seats…
Remember JSP had 0 seats in 2019.
Even #Pawankalyan wasn’t supported in his seat by these peopleFirst vote, then ask for more seats…
— Vineeth K (@DealsDhamaka) February 24, 2024
Bolisetty Satyanarayana, a key Jana Sena leader and official spokesperson, posted, “For votes to be transferred, the Jana Sena Party should get respectable positions, and Pawan Kalyan should have a share in power.”
Seeing an opportunity to woo the Kapu community and disgruntled cadre, the YSRCP too joined in the seat-sharing row and alleged that Pawan Kalyan betrayed the trust of his cadre, and as well as his Kapu community.
Prof DAR Subrahmanyam, the chairman of Navyandhra Intellectual Forum, finds the arithmetic to be correct but believes there is a slight emotional deficit over ‘less seat sharing’.
He pointed out that in comparison with the TDP securing 39.18 percent of votes in 2019 and retaining 151 seats now, the Jana Sena received only 6.8 percent, which is 1/6th of the TDP vote share, yet it secured 24 seats. While arithmetically the TDP and JSP seat-sharing appears fine, emotionally it seems a bit insufficient.
Subrahmanyam highlighted that in around 20-25 Assembly segments in 2019, Jana Sena candidates garnered approximately 20 percent vote share, a crucial factor in determining victory.
To better reflect the vote transfer and emotional aspect of the Jana Sena, Subrahmanyam suggested that the TDP could have offered five more seats, making a total of around 30 Assembly seats, which he considers a more reasonable allocation.
Regarding the impact of vote transfer, Subrahmanyam expressed that it might not have a significant effect due to the psychological preparation by Pawan Kalyan, encouraging the cadre to follow his decisions.
However, he emphasised that a more substantial number of seats could have facilitated a more impactful vote transfer.
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