Published Apr 29, 2026 | 6:30 PM ⚊ Updated Apr 29, 2026 | 6:30 PM
Tamil Nadu has historically witnessed a pattern of alternating governments every five years.
Synopsis: The DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance is projected to retain power in Tamil Nadu with 125–145 seats, well above the majority mark, according to a People’s Pulse exit poll. The AIADMK-led NDA is expected to trail, while Vijay’s TVK is likely to be a significant force, splitting the anti-incumbency vote and benefiting the DMK.
The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)-led Secular Progressive Alliance in Tamil Nadu is projected to retain power for a second consecutive term, securing 125–145 seats, well above the 118 needed for a majority in the 234-member Assembly, according to the People’s Pulse exit poll.
The principal opposition, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), is expected to win 65–80 seats.
Projected seats
Actor Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) is projected to win 18–24 seats, while others are likely to secure 2–6 seats.
Voter participation in the state saw a significant rise, with turnout crossing 84 percent, nearly 11 percentage points higher than in the 2021 Assembly elections.
TVK has had a significant impact on the polls, performing strongly in constituencies that the DMK and AIADMK have allotted to alliance partners.
Also Read: Think 85% turnout in Tamil Nadu polls 2026 means ‘wave election’? Think again
Tamil Nadu has historically witnessed a pattern of alternating governments every five years. However, the exit poll shows the ruling front has retained a structural advantage over its rivals.
The People’s Pulse Research Organisation survey has a margin of error of ±3 percent. The data shows the anti-incumbency vote is split between AIADMK and TVK, which works in favour of DMK.
The DMK bloc is projected at 38.4 percent vote share, followed by the AIADMK bloc at 31.5 percent. The TVK is estimated at 23.6 percent, while others account for 6.5 percent.
The DMK leads among both men and women. Among women, it has 37.8 percent support, compared with 30.2 percent for AIADMK and 26 percent for TVK.
Projected vote share.
Among men, the DMK is at 39.5 percent, AIADMK at 32.6 percent, and TVK at 21.1 percent. In the 18–24 age group, the DMK has 34.9 percent, followed closely by TVK at 32.3 percent, while AIADMK stands at 25.8 percent. This shows youth voters have not consolidated behind a single alternative.
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The AIADMK is losing ground in its traditional support base, according to the People’s Pulse. The influence of former leaders VK Sasikala and O Panneerselvam among Thevar voters, along with the PMK’s hold over Vanniyar voters, has weakened its grassroots strength in several constituencies.
The TVK is attracting Scheduled Caste (SC) youth voters, but the DMK retains its SC base with the backing of VCK.
A section of Christian voters is shifting towards the TVK, while Muslim voters continue to favour the DMK alliance. Women voters also favour the DMK, largely due to welfare schemes implemented by the incumbent government.
Chief Minister MK Stalin is leading in Kolathur, while AIADMK leader Edappadi K Palaniswami is ahead in Edappadi. Former Chief Minister O Panneerselvam, contesting from Bodinayakanur on a DMK ticket after his ouster from the AIADMK, faces stiff competition from the TVK.
Vijay is likely to win from Perambur but trails in East Tiruchirappalli. Deputy Chief Minister Udhayanidhi Stalin faces a tough contest from the TVK in Chepauk. In Sriperumbudur, Congress state president K Selvaperunthagai trails the TVK.
Former Telangana Governor and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leader Tamilisai Soundararajan is likely to lose in Mylapore, while BJP state chief Nainar Nagendran is projected to win in Sathur. Premalatha Vijayakanth is likely to finish third in Virudhachalam.
Veteran DMK leader Durai Murugan is on course for his eleventh victory from Katpadi, while Soumya Anbumani Ramadoss faces strong competition from the TVK in Dharmapuri.
(Edited by Dese Gowda)
