His decision to contest, the choice of seats, unsaid emphasis on settler votes, and his silence on BRS/KCR are parts of a well-knit script.
Published Nov 09, 2023 | 1:52 PM ⚊ Updated Nov 09, 2023 | 1:52 PM
Pawan Kalyan. (Screengrab)
It’s a simple poll poser in Telangana. Who gains by actor Pawan Kalyan’s entry into the fray in alliance with the BJP?
His Jana Sena Party is contesting only eight seats in the state. What is more, it is the party’s electoral debut. And nobody expects a tremendous performance from his party.
The answer is not too complicated. At best, Pawan Kalyan expects to vie for a segment of the anti-incumbency votes, especially of the Andhra “settlers” in the state.
This means he will want to split the anti-BRS vote, which might have otherwise gone to the Congress. That’s helping the BRS indirectly.
All the actor’s moves appear to fall in sync with this electoral logic.
The seats he is contesting fall within the Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation (GHMC), and Khammam and Nalgonda districts.
The constituencies are Kukatpally, Tandur, Kodad, Nagarkurnool, Khammam, Kothagudem, Wyra (ST), and Aswaraopet (ST) — the last four fall in the undivided Khammam district.
These constituencies have a sizeable number of the “settler” votes — Andhra voters settled in Telangana.
Khammam is a settler stronghold. The role of the settler vote may be pretty intense here.
The incumbent legislator is Puvvada Ajay Kumar, also the minister for transport. The Congress has fielded an influential Kamma leader — the same caste as Puvvada’s — Thummala Nageswara Rao.
Once a close friend of Chief Minister K Chandrashekar Rao till they fell out, Thummala left the BRS to join the Congress. Jana Sena makes it a three-cornered contest, hoping to wean away some anti-BRS votes.
Kukatpally, in the heart of Hyderabad, is also dominated by settlers. So much so, the political parties try to ensure that the candidates belong to the Kamma caste, powerful in Andhra, or those who hail from Andhra but have settled in Telangana.
Kodad has a natural settler population, being on the Telangana-Andhra Pradesh border. Even in the two seats reserved for Scheduled Tribes (STs), the going is tough for the BRS.
Thus, there is a case for any amount of anti-BRS votes, which otherwise might have gone to the Congress, going to the Jana Sena is expected to help the BRS.
The role of the Jana Sena must also be viewed from the settlers’ point of view. Apart from anti-incumbency, what has agitated the settlers in Telangana is the attitude of the BRS and KCR towards TDP chief Chandrababu Naidu after he was arrested in the skill development scam case.
They were unhappy that the BRS did not condemn the arrest. Moreover, pro-Naidu rallies and protest meets in Telangana were disallowed and, in some instances, police forcibly dispersed the protesters.
The settlers’ poll mood has changed. It was too late when the BRS leadership realised what happened. Some, like Finance Minister T Harish Rao, eventually admitted that “it is unfortunate that he was arrested at this age”. However, KCR has remained silent to date.
Like the Congress, Pawan Kalyan, too, possibly sensed the change in the settler mood. After all, they play a significant role in at least 20 Assembly constituencies in the state.
The strategy unfolded quickly. For a party that has never contested elections, the Jana Sena was seen in quick talks with the BJP. The “seat-sharing” was finalised without hiccups.
Incidentally, though the Jana Sena campaigned for the BJP in 2014, it parted ways with the right-wing party by 2018. However, it refrained from participating in the Assembly elections due to time constraints for fielding candidates.
The Jana Sena contested the 2019 Lok Sabha elections in seven seats with the BSP and Left parties but scored nil and got just 0.5 percent votes.
By the time of the latest GHMC elections, the Jana Sena had renewed its ties with the BJP, but Pawan Kalyan did not field candidates. Instead, he asked the people to support the BJP.
And now, all of a sudden, the party is in the poll fray. Pawan Kalyan announced the seats, selected with the settler vote in mind, hours after sharing the dais with Prime Minister Narendra Modi at a public rally in Hyderabad.
Another indicator of Pawan Kalyan’s train of thought is his silence on BRS. It came as no surprise the actor-politician expressed admiration for Modi’s achievements.
However, what caught the attention of political circles was his presence at the prime minister’s inaugural public meeting in Telangana and that he did not refer to BRS or KCR.
Pawan Kalyan never once mentioned them in his nine-minute speech.
His sudden jump into the fray, his choice of seats, his unsaid emphasis on the Andhra settler vote, and his silence on BRS and KCR tell a different story.
Some analysts go beyond the obvious implication that the Jana Sena’s presence could lead to a split in the anti-BRS votes to suggest that the Andhra actor-politician might also have some long-term objectives.
Speaking to South First, Professor Nageshwar, a former MLC and political analyst, opines that “Pawan Kalyan refraining from referring to Telangana Chief Minister and BRS supremo KCR could be because he is aware that he has no stakes in Telangana.
“With eight MLAs contesting in alliance with the BJP, it doesn’t make him the chief minister or his party the principal opponent in Telangana. So, I believe he wants to avoid taking on KCR because he knows it won’t yield any results. He also didn’t directly comment on the Congress; he simply appeased Modi.”
When asked why he is still with the BJP if he doesn’t want to confront KCR, Nageshwar saw three reasons: Firstly, he knows his stakes are in Andhra, and he wants the BJP to join the anti-Jagan forces.
Secondly, he wants to signal to the TDP that he still has the option to leave, which helps him win seat-sharing and alliance talks in Andhra Pradesh politically. Lastly, campaigning alongside Modi enhances his stature and keeps him politically relevant.
