With TDP not contesting, the political parties in Telangana - BRS, INC, and BJP - are trying to woo its vote bank. But whose side does the TDP vote bank align with?
Multiple factors will decide on who get most of the TDP votes.
N Chandrababu Naidu’s decision not to field party candidates in the Telangana electoral battlefield has other parties in the poll-bound state vying for the TDP’s vote share.
TDP supremo Naidu, who was granted bail for 28 days in the Andhra Pradesh State Skill Development Corporation (APSSDC) scam case on 31 October, opted out of the 30 November Assembly polls since he has to focus more on the legal battles ahead and the elections in Andhra Pradesh in the first half of 2024.
The realisation that a debacle in Telangana would dent the party’s image in Andhra Pradesh also made the septuagenarian leader keep out of the Assembly elections.
The TDP has not missed an election on Telugu soil ever since its inception in 1983.
Notably, Naidu has not declared support to either the BRS or the Congress, since he has been walking a tightrope to rekindle his relationship with the BJP. The TDP had snapped ties with the BJP in 2018, and of late, has been trying to re-establish the alliance.
Naidu’s decision to skip the Telangana Assembly poll did not go down well with the Telangana TDP (TTDP). The instant response was the resignation of TTDP chief Kasani Gnaneshar.
Against this backdrop, the BRS, the Congress, and the BJP are now in the race to woo the TDP voters. But which side with the voters take?
Despite the Telangana wave favouring the BRS (then TRS), the TDP surprisingly won 15 out of the 74 seats it contested in the 2014 Assembly election, while its ally, the BJP, romped home in seven of the contested 45 constituencies.
The TDP then garnered a vote share of 14.7 percent.
TDP voter share in Telangana. Click on the image to enlarge.
By 2018, most of the TDP leaders had shifted allegiance to the BRS. Still, the TDP fought valiantly in the company of the Congress, and emerged victorious in two out of the only 14 seats it contested, with a reduced vote share of 3.5 percent.
The Congress, meanwhile, recorded a three percent increase in its vote share to 28.8 percent by winning 19 out of the 94 seats it contested.
While several non-BJP chief ministers condemned Naidu’s 9 September arrest, Telangana Chief Minister and BRS chief K Chandrashekar Rao was conspicuously silent. Additionally, his Cabinet colleague and son KT Rama Rao denied the TDP permission to take out a protest rally in Hyderabad.
These two instances did not go down well with the Kamma community. The TDP founder, NT Rama Rao, and Naidu, belong to the Kamma community, which comprise around four percent of Telangana’s population.
In an apparent firefighting bid, Minister Rama Rao — popularly known as KTR — later clarified that his sympathies were with Naidu, but the protests were not allowed due to law and order issues, and the IT sector should not be disturbed.
Yet, the TDP sympathisers were not convinced.
Speaking to South First, Tejaswini Pagadala, a Hyderabad-based political consultant and author of Naidu’s biography — India’s Glocal Leader — said the context in which KTR’s made the statement should be noted.
“It’s not about the arrest. It’s about the context. There is a significant Kamma population who are into various businesses. They were initially aligned with the BRS,” she said.
“However, with the BRS according priority to rival communities — the Reddys and Velamas (the community from which BRS leader KCR hails) — the Kammas withdrew their support because they have been sidelined on all fronts,” Padagala added.
The BRS has fielded six candidates from the Kamma community in the upcoming polls — the same number as in the 2018 Assembly elections.
Meanwhile, TDP sympathisers and the Kamma community leaders have developed a soft spot for the Congress, specifically Telangana state chief A Revanth Reddy, who began his political career with the TDP. He was among the first to condemn Naidu’s arrest, as well as KTR’s response to the TDP leaders’ planned protest in Hyderabad.
Chandrababu Naidu with his family. (Facebook)
Reddy’s comments have been viewed as attempts to capitalise on the Kamma resentment towards the BRS and the BJP in favour of the Congress.
Unlike in 2018, when the Congress did not offer a ticket to a Kamma candidate and relied heavily on the TDP alliance factor, it has now roped in Thummala Nageshwar. A former BRS leader and a Kamma strongman, Nageshwar has considerable clout in the Hyderabad region, which has an estimated 30 to 40 lakh Andhra settlers.
Former journalist and political analyst Telakapalli Ravi felt that the TDP votes would split between the BRS and the Congress.
“After the 2014 Telangana elections, most TDP leaders joined the BRS, so it has some portion of the TDP votes as well. Additionally, ministers like Harish Rao and Talasani Srinivas Yadav have commented on Naidu’s arrest,” he pointed out
“Interestingly, after coming out of jail, Chandrababu Naidu thanked the BRS along with the other parties for their support. If you look at the TDP, it seeks tactical support from the ruling government for its business community in Hyderabad,” he told South First.
“As for the Congress, the Revanth Reddy and Thummala Nageshwar factors could work, but I believe that all votes would not go to only one party. In areas like Serilingampally and Jubilee Hills, BRS MLA Arekapudi Gandhi and Maganti Gopinath rely on ground-level campaigns and individual charisma. But one thing is true: The BJP is out of the fray,” Ravi added.
Andhra Pradesh BJP president Daggubati Purandeshwari was the only leader from the saffron party to condemn Naidu’s arrest. However, it has been seen as a family concern since Purandeshwari is Naidu’s sister-in-law.
Pawan Kalyan and Chandrababu Naidu at the latter’s residence in Hyderabad on Sunday, 8 January, 2023. (Supplied)
TTDP general secretary GVG Naidu said the BJP’s silence had made the party cadre believe that the saffron party had a role in Naidu’s arrest.
“This silence of the top leaders in Delhi, including Union Home Minister Amit Shah and party president JP Nadda — especially when there is a buzz about alliance talks — is seen as BJP’s role in his arrest by the cadre. This is evident to the public and will affect them (the BJP) in the elections,” the party in charge of Jubilee Hills told South First.
He further cited an example. “When the cops towed away YSRTP chief Ms Sharmila while she was seated in her car and was arrested later, Prime Minister Modi called her and conveyed his sympathies. But look at Naidu’s arrest. To date he has not received a call. The public understand these easily,” he added.
The BJP has other plans. It is roping in Pawan Kalyan. Despite being an NDA ally, Kalyan’s Jana Sena party has announced its first list of 32 candidates in Telangana, leaving out the BJP. The BJP later got in touch with the JSP and is now on cards to announce the alliance with Pawan Kalyan.
Political pundits see the move of aligning with the Jana Sena as an effort to woo the TDP vote bank indirectly, as the TDP cadre has a soft corner towards Kalyan ever since he came out in support of Naidu, despite being in the NDA.
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