Published Apr 29, 2026 | 9:33 PM ⚊ Updated Apr 29, 2026 | 9:34 PM
Actor Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam is the biggest wild card in Tamil Nadu.
Synopsis: Exit polls for the 2026 Assembly elections project a return to power for the ruling DMK in Tamil Nadu and a victory for the Congress-led UDF in Kerala, marking its return to power after a decade.
Several exit polls released on Wednesday, 29 April predict the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) will return to power in Tamil Nadu and a victory for the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) in Kerala after 10 years out of power.
In Tamil Nadu, most projections put the DMK at about 110 to 150 seats in the 234-member Assembly. The principal opposition, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), trails with about 60 to 120 seats.
Actor Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) is the biggest wild card. Some polls give it as few as five seats, while others put it at over 100.
In Kerala, most exit polls say the UDF is set to win between 70 and 85 seats in the 140-member Assembly. The ruling CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) is set to win about 55 to 70 seats. The BJP-led NDA is a distant third, with 0 to 5 seats in most surveys.
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People’s Pulse projects the DMK at 125–145 seats in the 234-member Assembly, while the AIADMK is at 65–80. The TVK is at 18–24 seats, with others at 2–6.
Matrize puts the DMK at 122–132 seats and the AIADMK at 87–100, with TVK at 10–12 and Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK) at 0–6.
P-Marq puts the DMK at 125–145 and the AIADMK at 65–85, with TVK at 16–26.
Some projections give the DMK a stronger mandate. AGNI puts the party at 169 seats, while Minnambalam puts it at 155. Chanakya projects 145–160 seats for the DMK, with the AIADMK at 50–65 and TVK at 13–18.
A few exit polls suggest a tighter contest between the AIADMK and the DMK. SPICK Media puts the AIADMK at 124–127 seats against the DMK’s 89–101, while Vote Vibe puts the AIADMK at 114–124 and the DMK at 103–113.
JVC Exit Poll gives the AIADMK 128–147 seats and the DMK 75–90.
Some projections put TVK ahead of the two Dravidian parties. Axis My India puts TVK at 98–120 seats, ahead of the DMK (92–110) and the AIADMK (22–32). Kamakhya Analytics projects a three-way contest, with the DMK at 78–95, the AIADMK at 68–84, and TVK at 67–81.
Satta Bazaar puts the DMK at 145–155 seats, the AIADMK at 45–65, and TVK at 7–9. People’s Insight projects the DMK at 120–140, the AIADMK at 60–70, and TVK at 30–40.
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People’s Pulse projects the UDF at 75–85 seats and the LDF at 55–65, with the NDA at 0–3. Similarly, CNN-News18 estimates UDF at 70–80 and LDF at 58–68, with NDA at 0–4.
P-Marq projects UDF at 71–79 and LDF at 62–69, while Axis My India gives the UDF a wider margin at 78–90 seats, compared to LDF’s 49–62. Phalodi Satta Bazaar estimates UDF at 78–85 and LDF at 56–66, with NDA at 2–3.
The JVC Exit Poll places UDF at 72–84 and LDF at 52–61, with NDA at 3–7 seats.
In contrast, Matrize places the LDF ahead at 70–75 seats, with UDF at 60–65 and NDA at 3–5.
(Edited by Dese Gowda with inputs from Subash Chandra Bose and Dileep V Kumar)
