Is Narendra Modi melting in the scorching Indian summer election?

After multiple conversations with BJP leaders, here is what seems to have changed between 2019 and now.

1) Back then, the party got an alarm following the defeat in three states and quickly got down to the task of correcting the situation on the ground.

2) Borrowing from the “Rytu Bandhu” scheme, brought by K Chandrashekar Rao in Telangana, the launch of PM Kisaan Samman scheme, under which income support was given to all those who have land registered in their name, worked in favour of the party.

3) And, then happened Phulwama/Balakot which gave rise to “nationalistic passion” and the consequent conversion into votes.

Now, let us look at what happened between then and now:

1) Narendra Modi has since become a phenomenon, tsunami, Vishwa guru and even Avatar. The entire strategy and architecture of the party’s campaign is built around this. There is no Plan B or C because there is no scope for a contrarian view.

2) The recent victory in three states–Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chattisgarh–has numbed the leadership as everything appeared hunky dory.

3) This is reflected in the BJP manifesto, where there is hardly any mention of any new welfare initiative despite rising unemployment and price levels. All that we are told is to wait for 2047, when India will become a global leader. By then, how many of those who are voting now will be alive is anybody’s guess. As a BJP leader put it, it is a “dead promise.”

Related: BJP’s 400-plus to scrap quotas, says Revanth

Brazen attack on Muslims unacceptable

4) This aspect is crucial – the state of mind of the “ethical voter” among BJP supporters. Unlike the Congress supporters, it is a “school of thought” for those who align with the BJP, as the party often claims. Whether they come via RSS, VHP, ABVP or just plain supporters, the “washing machine actions” are difficult to digest. All such supporters have become passive or unenthusiastic and are unlikely to drive voters to the booths, though they may not yet support the rival parties. Read the drop in voting percentage in the first two phases in this context. For the educated first-time voter, the BJP is no longer attractive on an “idealism scale”.

5) Party leaders confess that the ‘400 paar’ slogan has caused enough damage before it was abandoned. Dalits are worried about the continuance of reservations if the BJP indeed secures 400 plus. That this slogan could hurt instead of creating a positive narrative was something that no one who matters in the party has visualized.

6) For all the brainwashing that happened in the last decade, the unabashed hate being spewed also does not seem to be going down well. According to a BJP leader, an average Hindu (not counting the bigots), who is an inclusive person, is okay with a “calculated and measured communal usage.” What is not acceptable is a brazen attack wherein a Muslim is treated as an enemy. Such Hindus would like the country to be run by “handling” Muslims but not precipitate a situation which foments trouble.

Therefore, is it the end of the road for Modi? It doesn’t appear so, going by the current situation. Notwithstanding everything said above, it is more than likely that BJP plus allies may still end up close to the halfway mark, thanks to multiple weaknesses in the Opposition camp. What happens to Modi and Amit Shah if the BJP on its own doesn’t cross 270, and will the allies remain with them or look for options are questions for another day.