Multidimensional poverty has declined from 29.17% in 2013-14 to 11.28% in 2022-23; about 24.82 crore people escaped poverty.
Poor Indian Family on the Street in Allahabad, Uttar Pradesh. (iStock)
The South Indian states chug along at a steady rate of poverty alleviation, even as the latest discussion paper of the Niti Ayog on multidimensional poverty in the nine years since 2013-14 praises the North Indian states for a massive reduction in poverty figures.
The poverty gap between the southern and northern states is discerningly high, with the former’s poverty levels no longer in double figures.
The latest paper, “Multidimensional poverty in India since 2005-06”, claims the share of multidimensional poverty in India fell to 11.28 percent in 2022-23 from 29.17 percent in 2013-14.
In terms of numbers, it says 24.82 crore Indians are estimated to have “escaped multidimensional poverty during the last nine years”.
This paper is written by Prof Ramesh Chand, Member, NITI Aayog, and Dr Yogesh Suri, Senior Adviser, NITI Aayog, with technical inputs from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), and Oxford Policy and Human Development Initiative (OPHI).
The report emphasises the performance of the northern states, mainly from the Hindi heartland.
It says: “The fastest reduction in the proportion of multidimensional poor was observed in the states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, and Rajasthan. Bihar, the state with the highest MPI [Multidimensional Poverty Index] value in NFHS-4 (2015-16), experienced the largest decline in the headcount ratio.”
Concerning the headcount ratio, the report says: “Following closely, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh demonstrated the next largest reductions in the headcount ratio. In terms of the number of MPI-poor individuals, Uttar Pradesh topped the list with 3.43 crore people escaping multidimensional poverty over the past five years, followed by Bihar (2.25 crore) and Madhya Pradesh (1.36 crore).”
Here are the critical figures accessed from the report: The extrapolated percentage of the population who are multidimensionally poor in 2022-23 in the southern states are:
Karnataka 5.67 (16.55 percent in 2013-14)
Andhra Pradesh 4.19 (NA)
Telangana 3.76 (21.92 percent in 2013-14 as tweeted by former IT minister KT Rama Rao)
Tamil Nadu 1.43 (7.16 percent in 2013-14)
Kerala 0.48 (1.24 percent in 2013-14)
Puducherry 0.58 (NA)
In contrast, the Hindi heartland states have the following projections for 2022-23:
Bihar 26.59 (56.34 percent in 2013-14)
Jharkhand 23.34 (47.13 percent in 2013-14)
Uttar Pradesh 17.40 (42.59 percent in 2013-14)
Madhya Pradesh 15.01 (41.57 percent in 2013-14)
Chhattisgarh 11.71 (35.42 percent in 2013-14)
Rajasthan 10.77 (33.86 percent in 2013-14)
Uttarakhand 6.92 ((20.85 percent in 2013-14)
It can be noted that while the lowest poverty projection in the northern list is 6.92 for Uttarakhand, the highest figure in the southern list is for Karnataka, which is under six. Of course, it must be noted that the disparities in populations of states have to be factored in while comparing the projection figures.
Uttar Pradesh registered the largest decline in the poor, with 5.94 crore people escaping multidimensional poverty during the last nine years, followed by Bihar at 3.77 crore, and Madhya Pradesh at 2.30 crore.
In comparison, 73.64 lakh people escaped multidimensional poverty in Karnataka between 2013-14 and 2022-23. The figure for Kerala is 2.72 lakh. Close to 44 lakh people rose above poverty levels in Tamil Nadu. The figures for Andhra Pradesh and Telangana were unavailable in the Niti Ayog report.
The discussion paper claims that in states like Uttar Pradesh or Bihar, where the poverty figures are high, the rate of decline has been faster; the converse is true for states in South India. The reasons are not mentioned, though.
The paper credits the Union Government’s welfare schemes for making significant dents in poverty figures in the last nine years.
At one point, it says: “Government of India has made significant strides in enhancing the quality of life for millions of individuals, with a focus on the [UN’s Sustainable Development Goals] SDG 1.2 target of halving poverty in all its dimensions. Initiatives such as Poshan Abhiyan and Anaemia Mukt Bharat have played a crucial role in addressing reach to health facilities, resulting in a substantial reduction in deprivation.
“The Government of India operates one of the largest food security programmes in the world in the form of a Targeted Public Distribution System through 5.4 lakh fair-price shops. Under the National Food Security Act (NFSA), food grains are provided to 81.35 crore beneficiaries, covering 75 percent of the population in rural areas and 50 percent of the population in urban areas.
“Recently, the Government has decided to continue providing free food grains to NFSA beneficiaries under Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana for five years w.e.f. 1st January, 2024.”
The performance of the welfare schemes of individual states is not mentioned. Also, the paper does not say to what extent poverty reduction is directly linked to the free distribution of food grains to BPL families and what would be the impact as and when the free distribution is stopped.
Another essential facet of the multidimensional poverty figure is the performance of the 12 indicators, which include housing, nutrition, education, cooking fuel, drinking water, electricity, housing, assets, bank accounts, maternal health, and child and adolescent mortality.
Take nutrition, for example, which is directly related to the availability — free or paid — of food grain and other food materials.
According to the discussion paper, in 2005-06, 57.47 percent of the population was deprived of nutrition. The figure reduced to 37.60 percent in 2015-16. In 2019-21, it stood at 31.52 percent, barely six percent lower than the previous figure.
A clarification on the impact of nearly a third of the population continuing to be deprived of nutrition on the multidimensional poverty index would have been illuminating.
The same is the case with cooking fuel, whose deprivation figure stood at 43.90 percent in 2019-21 compared to 58.47 percent in 2015-16 and 74.4 percent in 2005-06.
In contrast, only 3.27 percent of the population was deprived of electricity in 2019-21, against 12.16 percent and 32.95 percent, respectively, in 2015-16 and 2005-06.
Child and adolescent mortality, too, has reduced to 2.06 percent.
Questions, however, remain — like the accuracy of the country’s population between the census years. The last Indian census is of 2011 vintage, the 2021 census being delayed by various factors.
Using the 2011 census to estimate poverty figures in 2013-14, 2015-16, 2019-21, and 2022-23 will leave a margin of error that may skew the final figures.
