Realignment of constituencies along a North-South divide will threaten the country’s peaceful co-existence and cross-cultural relations.
India's skewed population growth has implications for the South when it comes to delimitation. (iStock.jpg)
The proposed national delimitation exercise that can alter how many seats each state gets in the Lower House of Parliament has already raised concerns about the unequal representation it may create, especially in the case of the Southern states.
Though the process to fulfil the constitutional obligation would begin only after 2026, some experts who researched it pointed out that the North Indian states would gain more than 32 seats at the expense of the southern states, which would lose at least 24 seats.
If such a situation arose, it would have far-reaching effects on India’s federal system, and the North-South divide would be wider.
North Indian politicians and officials might decide the priorities and concerns of the South. There is a possibility of a belief crisis among the Indian people in the face of an aggressive North-South divide.
The concepts of co-existence and cross-cultural relations would also suffer a beating. National integration would be the first and foremost victim of such a realignment of Lok Sabha constituencies.
In all likelihood, the political interests of the present ruling dispensation at the Centre would be reflected in the exercise if they continued to win the fast-approaching elections and preside over the delimitation in 2026. The key issue related to the existing delimitation procedure is related to demography.
South Indian states have a lower population density than their northern counterparts. So, North India would get more seats in the Lok Sabha than the Southern states. It’s a cruel injustice to the latter, which has effectively implemented the Union government’s population control measures.
Suppose the South had adopted a negative attitude towards the population policy of the Union government. In that case, they might not have faced the present threat of losing seats during the next delimitation.
If the country is going ahead with the present yardsticks of delimitation, that would be a mockery of the population control measures successfully implemented by the states in response to the call from the national government.
It is a proven fact that Southern states have vigorously implemented most of the progressive policies and projects of the Union government compared with their northern counterparts. That’s why the living standards in the South are phenomenal.
They fare exceptionally well in all developmental indices and parameters. So, the hour needs to evolve better scientific parameters to redesign the Lok Sabha seats, and demography must not be the sole criterion.
Consultations must be held with experts and policymakers on the possible perils of the population-based exercise, and the South Indian states must not be punished for their achievements in effectively implementing the Union government’s policies and programmes.
The 2026 delimitation would be crucial to the fate and destiny of the country, as it would decide whether it would be continued as a secular and democratic republic, or a Hindu Rashtra, where religious and regional feelings would outsmart the pluralistic and inclusive values.
As reported, the Election Commission has initiated the delimitation process in Assam’s Assembly and Lok Sabha constituencies. It may be noted that during the last Assembly election in the state, the BJP promised to initiate that exercise to protect the “political interests” of the people.
If initiated nationally, the biggest challenge is resisting so-called political interests. There are conflicts between the Centre and the states on allocations based on population. In recent weeks, DMK members in the Rajya Sabha have raised severe objections against delegating central funds to the states based on population.
In the case of independent India, delimitations had taken place on four occasions: 1952, 1963, 1973, and 2002, and they considerably changed the political landscape of the nation.
In all those delimitation processes, the redrawing of boundaries of Assembly and Parliament constituencies depended on the population figures from the most recent census. In India, delimitation is a constitutional obligation.
Article 82 of the Constitution mandates that after every census is completed, the allocation of Lok Sabha seats to each state must be reconfirmed based on demographic changes.
But at the same time, Article 81 of the Constitution states that it prevents the Election Commission from creating Lok Sabha seats of not more than 550 — 530 from states and 20 from Union Territories.
It also wants to maintain the same population in all constituencies. So, each constituency across the country should ideally have the same population.
The independence and transparency of the Delimitation Commission, along with its commitment to federal values, are also causes for concern.
Appointed by the President of India, the commission comprises a retired Supreme Court or a high court judge, the Chief Election Commissioner, and the State Election Commissioner.
After going through the census reports, the Commission redraws constituencies or creates new ones in consultation with state election commissions. The commission’s draft report will be published in the Gazette, and the final report will be published after going through the feedback.
Once the final report gets published, it will be binding and final as per the Delimitation Commission Act, 1952, and Article 329A of the Constitution. It would be classified as “full force of law and shall not be called into question in any court”.
Another concern is the representation of Scheduled Castes (SCs) and Scheduled Tribes (STs) in the Lok Sabha and state Assemblies. There are possibilities of delimitation affecting the number of seats set apart for SCs and STs, which are typically chosen state-by-state depending on the spread of these communities. The last such update was in 2008.
Among the 545 members of the Lok Sabha, 543 were directly elected, and two were nominated for posts in the Anglo-Indian community until a 2019 Constitutional Amendment removed this provision. So, the Lok Sabha strength is now 543.
In 1976, the 42nd Amendment to the Constitution froze the number of Lok Sabha seats and put off delimitation for 25 years until the 2001 Census under Article 82.
The Indira Gandhi-led Congress government at the time, during the Emergency era, cited “family planning policies” as the reason for this suspension, saying it did not want to punish states with effective population control measures, as their representation in the Lok Sabha would fall compared to states with high populations.
The same situation is prevailing now.
North Indian states could not reduce their fertility rates and ensure parity with their southern counterparts despite long years of implementation.
In 2002, constituency boundaries were redrawn in tune with the population changes from the previous year’s census. Still, the number of Lok Sabha seats and seats in state Assemblies remained unchanged.
Delimitation for Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, and Manipur was deferred separately owing to “security concerns” in those regions. After splitting it into two UTs in 2019, Jammu and Kashmir was also the subject of a reconstituted Delimitation Commission in 2020.
The delimitation exercise was completed in Assam last month. Though no new Parliamentary or Assembly constituencies were added, 19 Assembly seats and one Lok Sabha seat were renamed or redrawn. The state now has four additional SC and ST Assembly seats and one reserved Lok Sabha seat.
Most notably, delimitation in Assam was based on the 2001 Census rather than the latest 2011 Census. That means, despite delimitation, Assembly seats are unlikely to each have roughly the same population or account accurately for population growth, particularly for the minority Muslim community.
In the Supreme Court earlier this week, the Union government said it is considering delimitation in Arunachal Pradesh and Nagaland. However, given the ongoing ethnic conflict in Manipur, the state will unlikely see delimitation soon.
Delimitation for Assembly seats in Jammu and Kashmir was completed last May based on the 2011 Census. The Assembly is set to have 90 seats over the previous 83, with 43 seats in Jammu and 47 in Kashmir. Six of the seven new seats went to Jammu, the Hindu-dominated region of the erstwhile state.
With the total number of Lok Sabha seats remaining frozen for too long, experts say there are discrepancies between states on the average number of electors each MP represents.
For example, a Lok Sabha member in Delhi presently represents 20.5 lakh voters, while the Lakshadweep constituency has hardly 55,000 voters.
Once demography becomes the sole criterion, delimitation would be unfair to the people of areas like Lakshadweep, who are facing backwardness due to various reasons ranging from geography to social conditioning.
While Uttar Pradesh and Bihar had failed to achieve results in family planning, Tamil Nadu and Kerala could limit population growth to six percent. If the delimitation goes by demography, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh will get 21 new seats, while Kerala and Tamil Nadu collectively lose 16 seats.
And if the government decides to increase the number in the lower house to 848, Uttar Pradesh will have 143 Lok Sabha seats in place of the existing 80.
In the case of Kerala, there will not be any additional seats.
Other than the Southern states losing seats in the Lok Sabha, the delimitation would help parties with considerable clout in the North, like the BJP, create new strongholds.
No state must lose its seats, even if the delimitation is based on demography. Increasing the number of seats in Lok Sabha based solely on demography is also not viable.
The SC/ST representation must not be affected by the process, and their existing representation is minimal.
There must be fair balance, and the larger unity of the nation and co-existence should be the sole parameters while altering the scope and character of people’s representation.
A situation in which the political party that wins the Hindi heartland ignores the vibrant Southern states must be avoided, as that would ignite clashes.
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