Number games: Voting patterns of previous polls tell you what makes Telangana a curious contest

A mass leader from a numerically small but socio-economically and politically dominant Velama community — Chief Minister K Chandrashekar Rao, who enjoys support cutting across caste and community lines — is a big factor in Telangana’s curious political landscape.

Comparisons of the voting patterns of the 2014 and 2018 Assembly elections, and the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections, show how caste votes are almost equally divided between the two primary contenders — the Congress and BRS — in the Assembly polls, with a clear shift in preference in the Parliament elections.

Thirty of the 88 BRS MLAs who won the 2018 Assembly polls hailed from the Reddy community. The party had 10 MLAs from Velama community, five from the Kamma caste and Scheduled Tribes (STs) each, 19 MLAs from the Backward Classes (BCs), and 16 from the Scheduled Castes (SCs), with the rest from other communities.

Nine of the 19 Congress MLAs who won the 2018 Assembly polls belonged to Reddy community. The party had five MLAs from among STs, two MLAs each from the SCs and BCs, with one from another community.

Vote-share analysis

According to an analysis by CSDS-Lokniti, community-wise vote-share preference shows an estimated 27 percent of the upper castes preferred BRS in the 2014 Assembly elections. The number rose to 47 percent in 2018 Assembly polls, but only 14 percent picked BRS in the Lok Sabha polls of 2019.

How Telangana votes.

Among upper castes, 27 percent of the community preferred the Congress in 2014 Assembly polls and 25 percent preferred it in 2018. But 32 percent preferred the Congress in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.

While 46 percent of the upper castes picked the BJP in the 2014 Assembly polls, only 13 percent chose it in 2018; but 41 percent preferred the BJP in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.

The BCs — numerically the largest population of Telangana — have been the BRS’ strength.

In the 2014 Assembly polls, 41 percent of the BCs preferred the BRS, with the number rising to  50 percent in the 2018 polls. But only 41 percent chose the BRS in 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

The Congress has consistently seen an under-30 percent preference among the BCs.

In 2014 Assembly polls, 25 percent of the BCs preferred the Congress, with the number rising to 29 percent in the 2018 state polls. In the 2019 Parliament election, the number again dropped to 25 percent.

The BJP, which has promised a BC chief minister to Telangana this election season, saw 23 percent of the community preferring it in the 2014 Assembly polls, with the number dropping to barely nine percent in the 2018 Assembly polls. But the party was preferred by 25 percent of the BCs in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.

SCs, who form the second-largest voting bloc in Telangana, too, seem divided, but with a preference for the BRS.

In the 2014 Assembly polls, 33 percent SCs preferred the BRS, with the number rising dramatically to 53 percent in the 2018 state polls. In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, 51 percent of the SCs preferred the BRS.

The Congress was picked by 17 percent SC respondents as per the CSDS-Lokniti analysis of the 2014 Assembly polls. In 2018, the number had risen to 30 percent, and in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls to 36 percent.

The BJP was preferred by 19 percent SCs in the 2014 Assembly polls, when it contested in alliance with TDP. In the 2018 Assembly polls, only four percent SCs preferred the BJP, and in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls it was five percent.

Muslims, the X factor

Muslims have come to be an X factor in Telangana elections this time, with Congress working towards consolidating the community’s votes which is currently divided between the grand old party and the ruling BRS.

Data for 2014 Assembly polls voting preference of Muslims wasn’t available.

In the 2018 Assembly polls, 33 percent voters Muslims preferred the BRS while 34 percent preferred Congress, and just 1 percent voted for the BJP.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, 43 percent Muslims preferred the BRS while 42 percent preferred the Congress, and 2 percent chose the BJP.

Among specific caste groups, 52 percent of the Reddys had preferred BRS in the 2014 Assembly elections, while 42 percent picked the party in the 2018 polls. But only 31 percent among the Reddys voted BRS in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.

As far as the Congress is concerned, barely seven percent of Reddys preferred the party in the 2014 Assembly polls, but the number jumped to 43 percent in 2018. In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, however, only 21 percent of the Reddys picked the Congress.

The BJP saw 15 percent of the Reddys voting saffron in the 2014 Assembly polls, with the number dropping to and seven percent in 2018. However, 33 percent preferred the BJP in 2019 Lok Sabha polls.

Voting by economic strata

Going by economic strata, 45 percent of voters from poor backgrounds preferred the BRS in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, and the number had risen to 48 percent in 2019 Lok Sabha polls.

Only 26 percent from this social strata preferred the Congress in 2014 national elections and 28 percent in 2019. Just 19 percent of the poor voters in Telangana preferred the BJP in 2014, with the number dropping to 13 percent in 2019, as per CSDS-Lokniti data,

About 36 percent of voters from the lower middle class preferred the BRS in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, and 44 percent preferred it in 2019.

About 21 percent of the voters from this class preferred Congress in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, and it was 30 percent in 2019. Some 21 percent from the economic background preferred BJP in 2014, and 19 percent picked it in 2019.

Among upper economic class voters, 28 percent preferred BRS in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, while 25 percent preferred it in 2019. While 26 percent in this class preferred the Congress in 2014, the number dropped to 18 percent in 2019. For the BJP, the numbers were 27 percent in 2014, which rose dramatically to 43 percent in 2019.

The message in the numbers

Internal surveys of political parties in Telangana this election, too, show social vote blocs, especially the minority Muslim community, indicating different preferences for the Assembly and the Lok Sabha polls.

In short, absolute consolidation of votes by any community, caste or even economic strata is a challenge for any party in Telangana that has so far seen BRS riding high on the pan-state sentiment of the Telangana statehood movement that cut across castes and communities.

While Velamas, estimated to constitute less than 2 percent of Telangana’s four crore population, are understood to have consolidated in favour of BRS, with KCR — a Velama himself — driving the party’s campaign.

As for Congress, with Revanth Reddy at the helm of affairs, the other socio-economically dominant community — the Reddys, with an estimated population of less than 6 percent — is understood to have consolidated in its favour in the hope of seeing a “Reddy CM”.