According to IMD’s long-term forecast, the week from 23 to 29 June is also likely to receive more rains than normal.
The Southwest monsoon has intensified its spell after a brief gap in widespread rains in Kerala.
Kerala is likely to witness widespread rain with thunder and lightning for four days starting Sunday, 18 June, as the Southwest Monsoon well and truly sets in after a halting start.
Heavy rains are predicted when the expected rainfall in 24 hours is between 64.5 mm and 115.5 mm. According to the forecast by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Saturday, 17 June, there was a possibility of heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places in the state over the next few days.
Meanwhile, according to the Met department, Cyclone Biparjoy has weakened into a deep depression over southwest Rajasthan. The cyclone will move in the east-northeast direction and weaken again into a deep depression by Sunday.
For the four days starting Sunday, the IMD has announced a yellow alert for various districts in Kerala. the list of districts is as follows:
Fisherfolk have also been advised against venturing into the in the Kerala-Lakshadweep region as the IMD has predicted strong winds with speeds of up to 55 kmph in some places
According to IMD’s long-term forecast, the week from June 23 to 29 is likely to receive more rains than normal..
“There was an upper air circulation in areas near Tamil Nadu yesterday. The IMD forecast may be based on that,” Abhilash S, associate professor at the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at the Cochin University of Science and Technology (CUSAT) told South First on Saturday.
According to Abhilash, Kerala might experience an intense monsoon this year, but he did not believe it would be as intense as in 2018 — the year of the devastating floods.
Abhilash did not, however, rule out the chances of cloudbursts, which according to him could worsen the situation.
“The situation can get worse if there is a cloudburst, but this cannot be predicted before. As there is a forecast for intense rain for the next five days, people should be careful as we cannot ascertain which areas will have isolated heavy rainfall,” said Abhilash.
“If there are cloudbursts, the chances of landslides are higher. Each area will have a different threshold, but those living in areas prone to landslides must be careful,” he added
Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan is the chairman of Kerala’s State Disaster Management Authority (KSDMA).
Ahead of the arrival of the monsoon, Vijayan on 31 May had given the KSDMA a slew of directives so that it was prepared for the monsoon.
In a statement, the Chief Minister’s Office stated that Vijayan directed officials that basic facilities be ensured at the relief camps, and that people living in hilly areas prone to landslides be made aware of the risks and trained to reach the camps on their own.
The chief minister also emphasised procuring and storing rescue equipment locally to help civil defence and other volunteers to initiate rescue operations quickly.
Since 2019, Kerala publishes a book called the Orange Book of Disaster Management, which issues directives to each department on how to prepare for the monsoon. This includes training for officers as well as relief and rehabilitation details in an emergency.
The state also collaborates and takes lessons from disaster management models from various agencies, including those in the Netherlands and Germany.
In August 2018, floods wreaked havoc in Kerala, submerging large areas. Apart from unprecedented rains, the reason cited for that flood was the rising water levels in Kerala’s dams.
As shutters of the major dams were opened, a large number of people downstream had to be evacuated from their homes.
Also, due to the rampant encroachments near the rivers, the water-carrying capacity of Kerala’s rivers was reduced. This, in turn, resulted in river water flowing into residential areas.
Following a petition filed by Foundation for Restoration of National Value president E Sreedharan — popularly known as “Metro Man” — the Kerala High Court appointed advocate Jacob P Alex as an amicus curiae to study the reasons for the flood and dam management.
The report, submitted to the court in 2019, stated: “None of the 79 dams in Kerala was operated or used for the purpose of flood control/moderation despite the obligations to utilise dams for flood control/moderation as per stipulations under National Water Policy, NDMA Guidelines on Flood, RTIOR, and similar directives.”
However, the water levels in Kerala dams are currently in a stable condition and the government systems have learned from the experiences of the 2018 and 2019 floods.
The state disaster management authority is said to be keeping a constant check on the water levels in Kerala dams.
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