South First Karnataka final pre-poll survey predicts possible simple majority for Congress

South First-Peoples Pulse final pre-poll survey carried out from 1 to 5 May shows slight edge for Congress with the party possibly crossing halfway mark of 112.

BySouth First Desk

Published May 07, 2023 | 3:06 PMUpdated May 07, 2023 | 3:06 PM

Karnataka '23 Final Pre-Poll Survey by South First

Polling for the Karnataka Assembly election 2023 will be held on 10 May and parties are pulling out all stops in the last leg of campaigning. Between 1 and 5 May, South First-Peoples Pulse carried out a final pre-poll survey, the data of which predicts that Congress could get a simple majority.

South First-Peoples Pulse pre-poll survey also shows that Congress leader Siddaramaiah is the popular choice as chief minister with over 42 percent of the respondents opting for him.

Ground Report: Basavana Bagewadi witnesses a triangular contest

South First-Peoples Pulse final Karnataka pre-poll survey 

Karnataka Assembly election seat forecastThe final pre-poll survey carried out by Peoples Pulse for South First in Karnataka projects the Congress could win 105 to 117 seats out of the total 224 seats in Karnataka.

The data shows that Congress is at a slight advantage and could cross the halfway mark of 112.

The incumbent BJP is projected to win 81 to 93 seats, while the JD(S) is expected to win between 24 and 29 seats. Independent and other party candidates are projected to win one to three seats.

South First-Peoples Pulse final pre-poll survey — carried out between 1 and 5 May — shows that Congress is likely to get a vote share of 41.1 percent while the BJP is set to get 36 percent, which is a minute loss compared to its 2018 vote share number of 36.35 percent.

Karnataka Assembly election vote share

The JD(S), the regional party, is expected to lose considerable vote share and end up with just 16 percent.

3 polls by South First

In the South First tracker poll published in January this year, the Congress was projected to win 101 (+/- 9) seats and the BJP was predicted to win 91 (+/-7) seats.

In April this year, South First published its second pre-poll survey for the Karnataka Assembly election which projected the Congress will win 98 seats within a range of 95 to 105 seats, making it the single-largest party.

Since then, Congress is projected to have further increased its chances of winning a simple majority, inching closer to the magic number.

In the first tracker poll, JD(S) was predicted to win 29 (+/-5) seats and, since then, the party has lost its vote share in some constituencies despite its flagship campaign Pancharathna Yatre striking a chord among voters.

South First-Peoples Pulse final pre-poll survey for Karnataka shows Congress is enjoying a slight edge in all parameters and is leading over the other parties uniformly on development, welfare, community preference,
chief minister choice, party preference, across age and gender.

Congress has an edge over its main rival BJP in all the regions except coastal Karnataka.

Ground Report: Basavaraj Bommai rides popularity wave in Shiggaon

Siddaramaiah remains top choice for CM candidate

In all three pre-poll surveys carried out by South First-Peoples Pulse, Congress leader Siddaramaiah towers over others when it comes to choice of chief minister.

Karnataka Assembly election CM choiceIn the final pre-poll survey carried out from 1 May to 5 May, Siddaramaiah was picked as top choice for chief minister by 42 percent of the respondents.

Incumbent Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai was picked as top choice by 24 percent respondents, while JD(S) leader HD Kumaraswamy was picked by 17 percent respondents.

Former chief minister and Lingayat strongman BS Yediyurappa, although he has declared retirement from electoral politics, was picked by 14 percent of the  respondents as top choice for chief minister.

Karnataka Congress chief DK Shivakumar was picked only by three percent of the respondents as their choice for chief minister.

When asked which party was better for the development of Karnataka, 46 percent said it was the Congress, the BJP was the choice of 34 percent, and JD(S) 14 percent.

Asked if the BJP Government should will be given another, chance 53 percent said No, 41 percent said Yes, and six percent said “can’t say”.

Ground Report: Congress and BJP in a tight race to keep going in Gadag

Methodology and margin of error

The margin of error for South First-Peoples Pulse final pre-poll survey is plus or minus two percent. The survey did not factor the last two days of campaign and therefore could not assess any last-minute swing in favour of or against any of the main parties.

Karnataka Assembly election BJP performanceThe pre-poll survey was conducted from 1 May to 5 May, 2023, by Peoples Pulse Research Organization for South First. The Pre-Poll survey Report was compiled by R Dileep Reddy, director of Peoples Pulse Research Organization.

The survey was carried out in 56 Assembly segments selected on the basis of the Probability Proportional Methodology (PPS). Three polling stations were selected in each Assembly segment. In each polling station, 20 samples were collected.

A total of 3,360 samples were chosen such that the sample reflects the situation on the ground in terms of caste, religion and age. Gender was given equal representation.

It is pertinent to mention that Peoples Pulse conducted the first pre-poll survey in Karnataka from 22 to 31 December, 2022. The second pre-poll survey was conducted form 25 March to 10 April, 2023.

Karnataka Assembly election party for development

The Third and Final Pre-Poll survey was conducted after withdrawl of nomination from 1 May to 5 May, 2023.

Significant changes have taken place in the political landscape of the state since the second pre-poll survey was conducted in March-April.

The three major parties experienced a high level of defections and rebellions after the announcement of tickets.

The release of the parties’ manifestos generated a lot of controversies. Moreover, the official campaign has commenced, star campaigner rallies have taken place, and statements by major parties have led to more controversies and counter-campaigns.