Published May 29, 2026 | 7:00 AM ⚊ Updated May 29, 2026 | 7:00 AM
Kerala and Tamil Nadu continue to show a striking preference for second children. (iStock)
Synopsis: Despite having some of India’s lowest fertility rates, Kerala and Tamil Nadu continue to show strong preference for second children, unlike Telangana’s rising single-child trend. SRS 2024 data reveals South India’s demographic transition is diverging, with large families nearly disappearing while the two-child norm still persists in parts of the region.
Despite recording some of India’s lowest fertility rates, Kerala and Tamil Nadu continue to show a striking preference for second children, a pattern that persists even as both states move deeper into sub-replacement fertility territory.
The SRS Statistical Report 2024 places Kerala’s total fertility rate (TFR) at 1.3, with Tamil Nadu recording the same figure. Yet birth-order data from the report reveals that Kerala leads all bigger states and union territories in the share of second-order births, while Tamil Nadu ranks among the highest.
Kerala records 34.9 percent of all live births as second-order births, the highest in the country. Tamil Nadu follows at 33.2 percent. Both states remain far above the national average of 22.7 percent, suggesting that even with sharply declining fertility, the two-child family continues to dominate reproductive behaviour in much of the south.
At the other end of the spectrum lies Telangana, which records the lowest share of second-order births among bigger states at just 13.4 percent. The state is driven by an extraordinarily high first-order birth share of 82.7 percent, the highest in India. In demographic terms, Telangana appears closer to Delhi than to its southern neighbours, with families increasingly stopping after one child.
Nationally, 66.4 percent of current live births in 2024 are first-order births, 22.7 percent second-order, 7.3 percent third-order, and 3.5 percent fourth-order or higher. Southern states, however, sit at opposite ends of this spectrum, with Telangana recording the country’s highest concentration of first-order births and Kerala the lowest.
Kerala records the lowest proportion of first-order births among all bigger states at just 47.9 percent, far below the national average of 66.4 percent and nearly 35 percentage points lower than Telangana. Second-order births account for 34.9 percent of Kerala’s live births, while third-order births stand at 13.3 percent and fourth-order or higher births at 3.9 percent. Kerala also records the highest third-order birth share in southern India, reflecting a more distributed family structure compared to neighbouring states.
Tamil Nadu presents a more tightly compressed fertility profile. The state records 60.6 percent first-order births, 33.2 percent second-order births, 5.6 percent third-order births, and only 0.6 percent fourth-order or higher births. Only Andhra Pradesh, at 0.5 percent, reports a lower fourth-order share.
Andhra Pradesh records 72.1 percent first-order births, 23.7 percent second-order births, 3.8 percent third-order births, and 0.5 percent fourth-order or higher births, the lowest such share in the country. Karnataka follows a similar pattern, with 69.8 percent first-order births, 23.3 percent second-order births, 5.7 percent third-order births, and 1.2 percent fourth-order or higher births.
Telangana presents the starkest demographic profile in the region: 82.7 percent first-order births, 13.4 percent second-order births, 2.9 percent third-order births, and 0.9 percent fourth-order or higher births. It also records the country’s lowest share of third-order births. The data suggests that one-child families are becoming increasingly common in the state.
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The sharp decline in higher-order births across southern India offers perhaps the clearest evidence of the region’s demographic transition. Andhra Pradesh’s 0.5 percent fourth-order birth share and Tamil Nadu’s 0.6 percent indicate the near disappearance of large families. Even Kerala, despite recording a comparatively high share of third-order births, keeps fourth-order births below 4 percent.
This stands in sharp contrast to several northern states. Madhya Pradesh records 6.5 percent fourth-order births, Bihar 5.9 percent, Uttar Pradesh 5 percent, and Rajasthan 3.5 percent. Bihar, for instance, records only 62.5 percent first-order births, but significantly higher shares of third-order and fourth-order births, indicating a very different family formation pattern from the south.
Delhi provides another contrast. The national capital records 78.4 percent first-order births and only 16.2 percent second-order births, suggesting a stronger shift towards single-child households. Jammu and Kashmir follows with 77.1 percent first-order births.
Madhya Pradesh, meanwhile, records one of the country’s lowest first-order birth shares at 55.8 percent, second only to Kerala. But unlike Kerala, where low first-order births reflect families stopping after two children, Madhya Pradesh’s figures reflect a wider spread into third and fourth births.
That distinction is central to understanding the southern fertility transition. In Kerala and Tamil Nadu, low fertility does not necessarily mean a collapse into one-child families. Instead, births remain concentrated around the first and second child, sustaining a two-child equilibrium even as overall fertility falls well below replacement level.
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The rural-urban divide adds another layer to the picture. In Kerala, urban areas actually record a slightly higher share of second-order births at 36 percent, compared to 33.7 percent in rural areas. The pattern suggests that urban families in Kerala remain strongly committed to the two-child norm.
Tamil Nadu shows a similar trend. Rural areas record a higher second-order birth share at 34.8 percent compared to 31.8 percent in urban areas, while fourth-order births remain extremely low across both geographies.
Telangana’s urban profile reinforces its distinct demographic trajectory. Urban areas in the state record 80.9 percent first-order births and just 13.9 percent second-order births, confirming that the shift towards smaller families cuts across rural and urban populations alike.
Nationally, rural India records 65.4 percent first-order births, 22.8 percent second-order births, 7.7 percent third-order births, and 4 percent fourth-order or higher births. Urban India records 69 percent first-order births and just 2.3 percent fourth-order or higher births, highlighting how geography continues to shape family size in regions where the fertility transition remains incomplete.
(Edited by Sumavarsha)
