Andhra Pradesh tracker poll: NDA may bag 19 of 29 SC Assembly seats; but YSRCP has edge in ST seats

YSRCP, which can get a vote share of around 42.83 percent, will likely win the remaining 10 seats.

The difference in vote share between NDA and YSRCP is 8.98 percentage points.

Meanwhile, YSRCP is expected to win five seats reserved for STs, with a vote share of 48.16 percent. The remaining two might go to NDA with a vote share of 46.49 percent.

The difference in the vote share between the YSRCP and the TDP-led alliance is just 1.67 percentage points.

This is a sharp reversal compared to 2019, when YSRCP won 27 SC segments, with just one seat going to TDP and the other to JSP.

Incidentally, Razole (SC) was the only seat that the Pawan Kalyan-led Jana Sena won in the 2019 Andhra Pradesh Assembly elections.

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Voting patterns

Interestingly, in all the three previous Assembly elections since delimitation in 2009, the party that bagged the majority of the SC seats was the one that came to power.

Meanwhile, the ST-reserved seats almost always remained outside the TDP’s reach, with Congress winning a majority of them till 2009 and YSRCP in the 2014 and 2019 Assembly elections.

The tracker poll’s patterns of community votes are along predictable in the SC Assembly seats.

YSRCP gets a whopping 74.68 percent of the Reddy votes, followed by 69.93 percent of the Christian votes. A majority of Madigas (59.85 percent) and Muslims (55 percent) may support it. However, only 35 percent of BC votes and 42 percent of other SC votes may go YSRCP’s way.

On the other hand, the TDP-BJP-JSP combine gets a massive 89 percent of the Kamma vote followed by 73 percent of the Kapu votes. It may get 67.93 percent of other OC votes, 68.85 percent of the Vysya votes, 60 percent of the BC votes, and 54.81 percent of Madiga votes. It is expected to get 40 percent of the Muslim votes.

Interestingly, the Brahmin vote may split more or less equally, with 47 percent going to YSRCP and 45 percent to the TDP-JSP-BJP alliance.

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TDP alliance most preferred next govt

In the Peoples Pulse tracker poll for Andhra Pradesh SC and ST seats, Chief Minister YS Jagan Mohan Reddy trails TDP chief N Chandrababu Naidu by 6 percentage points as the preferred chief minister after the Assembly elections.

Naidu gets the backing of 44 percent of respondents to the tracker poll to Reddy’s 38 percent. Pawan Kalyan has the support of 11 percent of the electorate.

How do these respondents see the TDP-BJP-JSP tie-up in the state? As much as 46 percent are fine with it, 42 percent say it is “bad”, while 12 percent are “undecided”.

If elections were to be held today, 53 percent said the TDP-BJP-PSP combine would likely form the next government in Andhra Pradesh. In contrast, 40 percent would choose to go with the incumbent YSRCP.

A mere 1 percent would choose Congress, while 6 percent constitute the ones who would choose “others” or “can’t say”.

A total of 48 percent feel YSRCP should not get a second chance as against 43 percent who prefer the party to return to power. Strangely, these feelings do not gel with the respondents’ opinion on the performance of the YSRCP government.

Around 16 percent feel the performance is “very good”. For 22 percent, it is merely “good”, while 19 percent say it is “okay”. In sum, 57 percent have varying degrees of positive perceptions.

In contrast, 14 percent say the performance is “bad” followed by 29 percent who say it has been “very bad”. The negative perception totals 43 percent.

The respondents have different opinions about which party is better for developing Andhra Pradesh: 45 percent prefer TDP compared to 41 percent for YSRCP. Around 8 percent favour JSP.

Also read: ‘Lesser evil’ for Andhra Muslims

Methodology

Peoples Pulse conducted the tracker poll from 30 March to 3 April across 36 Assembly segments in Andhra Pradesh reserved for SCs and STs. Five polling stations were selected from each Assembly segment using a Random Sampling method.

In each polling station, 20-25 randomly selected samples were taken from the electoral rolls. A total of 3,960 samples were chosen to reflect the situation on the ground regarding caste, religion, and age. Gender was given equal representation.

The tracker poll consisted of a structured questionnaire and face-to-face interviews. The survey comprised both qualitative and quantitative data analysis.

Peoples Pulse also conducted a tracker poll in SC and ST Assembly segments in Andhra Pradesh before the 2019 Assembly Elections.