Sources tell South First that CM Jagan's moves will depend on what the BJP central leadership decides vis-a-vis the Lok Sabha elections.
Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister YS Jagan Mohan Reddy interacting with school children. (Twitter)
Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister YS Jagan Mohan Reddy is unlikely to advance elections to the Assembly — unless the BJP, ruling at the Centre, decides to do so in regard to the Lok Sabha.
Over the past few months, speculation has been rife that Jagan might call for polls a few months ahead of schedule — May next year, along with the Lok Sabha. Every visit of his to Delhi for meetings with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah fuels discussion around it in the political corridors.
Highly placed sources confirmed to South First that this thought process in YSRCP is not independent and, on the contrary, dependent on the political moves of the BJP’s central leadership.
That brings us to the larger question: Is the BJP planning to advance Lok Sabha elections?
At this point, it’s not a definite Yes or No. After the humiliating defeat in Karnataka, the top brass of the BJP is seriously engaged in evaluating the party prospects in the five states scheduled to go to polls by the end of this year — Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, and Mizoram.
Going by the current trends, the Congress appears confident of retaining Chhattisgarh and regaining Madhya Pradesh. In Rajasthan, too, where the Congress is currently in power, the path to victory is still not clear to the BJP given its own internal problems, which are no less than the Ashok Gehlot-Sachin Pilot headache for the Congress.
In Telangana, where the Congress appeared to be on the ascendancy post-Karnataka, the BJP took a tactical step back by easing up on its attacks on the ruling BRS, though it never had any chance of coming to power.
The sudden shift in stance has led to widespread speculation that the BJP is hand in glove with BRS and Chief Minister K Chandrashekar Rao to prevent the Congress from coming to power.
The question before the BJP central leadership is: What if the party fares poorly in the upcoming Assembly polls?
In such an event, will it lead to a complete change of perception about the invincibility of Modi-Shah and, thereby, severely impact their bid to return to power for a third time in 2024?
The BJP leaders, conscious that the Assembly polls results, will set the tone for 2024, are, therefore, said to be mulling if they should go for early polls by pushing the dates to early next year.
In other words, the Assembly polls will be postponed by a couple of months and the Lok Sabha advanced by a few months.
The thinking seems to be this will prevent the outcome of Assembly polls having an impact on the national election. The flip side, though, is there will be no scope for BJP to test the waters before the big battle.
With no clarity still on what the final call would be, Jagan is doing what he should: Hitting the ground in preparation for the polls — irrespective of when they will be finally held.
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