The Congress victory in Karnataka has fascinated the Muslim community, but an absolute consolidation is unlikely in Telangana.
Published Nov 25, 2023 | 5:46 PM ⚊ Updated Nov 26, 2023 | 7:59 AM
Muslims are divided between the BRS and the Congress.
Are the Muslims subtly shifting their loyalty away from the BRS in Telangana? Often deemed “strategic voters”, the Muslim community, which makes up nearly 13 percent of the state’s population, is a crucial deciding factor in over 40 out of the 119 Assembly seats.
Though there is no empirical evidence that the Muslims will forsake the BRS — which, along with the AIMIM, attracted an overwhelming 80 percent of the community’s vote in the 2018 Assembly election — the voter fatigue stemming from supporting the same party in repeated elections appears to have set in.
This, coupled with the fact that some influential and not-so-influential organisations openly calling for supprt to the Congress, could see the community looking for a change in the upcoming elections to the Telangana Assembly on 30 November.
The Friday prayers on 24 November, the last Friday before polling day, were something all political parties attempting to woo the community were keeping a watch on.
In many Telangana districts, mosques have appealed to the faithful to prefer a “secular” party this time, implying the Congress.
For instance, in Adilabad, attendance was unusually high at mosques for the namaz on Friday. Hushed tones campaigned for the Congress. In several mosques in the district, animated discussions took place on which party the community should support.
However, in Hyderabad, messages through word of mouth or sometimes even broadcast over the public address systems, favoured the AIMIM.
A devout Muslim, who attended prayers at a mosque in Tolichowki on Friday, told South First that he was surprised to hear an announcement that “Asad bhai wants Muslims to vote for MIM candidate in Karavan Kausar Mohiuddin”, and added that it was possible that such messages were being sent to Muslims at other mosques too.
In some parts of Telangana, where local factors come into play, the Muslims have veered towards the BRS.
Tanjamul Masjid Committee Siddipet District President and Gajwel Masjid Committee Chairman Sayyad Yousufuddin said that in Gajwel — Chief Minister K Chandrashekar Rao’s constituency — the committee passed a resolution during the Friday gathering to support the BRS.
“The reason is the allocation of development funds to renovate the masjid and its complex, along with fostering communal harmony under KCR’s leadership,” he said.
The message from the mosques apart, the Congress could take heart from the fact that the influential Jamat-e-Islami Hind has clearly asked the community to back the party in as many as 69 seats. The Joint Action Committee (JAC) of Muslim organisations, though not considered to have any great sway over the community, too, has called for the community to back the Congress.
In Karimnagar, where BJP MP Bandi Sanjay Kumar is contesting, the mosques seemed divided between the BRS and the Congress, the latter having an edge.
Of the 10 main masjids, six have reportedly held meetings and passed resolutions, with two supporting the BRS and the remaining four siding with the Congress.
In Sirpur, on the other hand, Mohammed Amjadullah said: “We need a proper bus stand and proper roads. There are four parties before us to choose from. We will support the BRS because the Congress will not win this seat. The BSP’s Praveen Kumar is there, but we suspect the anti-BJP credentials of the BSP at the national level and we will not vote for the BJP anyway.”
Muslims are such an important constituency that no political party can ignore them. The BRS has been straining its every sinew to retain their support, even as the Congress is making all-out efforts to win them over with the goodwill that it earned in Karnataka by fighting the hijab ban.
According to one estimate, 60 percent of Muslim voters in the state are in 24 Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation (GHMC) Assembly segments, while the remaining 40 percent are spread across the state.
A growing narrative has it that the Muslims might prefer the Congress to the BRS this time.
In the Dharmapuri Constituency, 64-year-old Chand Pasha, a supporter of the BRS since 2006, was contemplating shifting his allegiance to the Congress as KCR could not get reservations hiked to 11 percent as promised. “Both the BRS and the BJP are together. The BRS chief is trying to save his daughter Kavitha from the Delhi liquor scam,” he said.
In the Warangal East constituency, with about 40,000 Muslims, voters were divided between the BRS and the Congress.
Rizwan, a Muslim shopkeeper in Warangal, said: “Both parties are good. The BRS has not done anything detrimental to our community. At the same time, the Congress candidate, Konda Surekha, is well-known to us and is accessible. We will back the party which has winning prospects, whether it is the BRS or the Congress.”
More than any other community, the Muslims have been most influenced by the Karnataka Assembly election outcome. Ever since the grand old party pulled off a sensational victory over the BJP by fighting against the hijab ban and countering the saffron party’s provocative statements in Karnataka, the Muslims are apparently having a rethink.
Since the beginning, the Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM has been limited to seven segments in Hyderabad and has been extending support to the BRS in other parts of the state. This time, it has fielded candidates in nine Hyderabad seats and is supporting the BRS in the remaining constituencies.
There were instances of both KCR and AIMIM chief Asaduddin Owaisi calling each other “best friend” and the BRS has even rewarded AIMIM with berths in the Legislative Council.
Meanwhile, the BJP has toned down its attacks on the BRS, and, moreover, the Enforcement Directorate (ED) and CBI have not “touched” KCR’s daughter Kavitha in the Delhi liquor scam after making noises initially. This has given rise to speculation that a covert understanding has been reached between the BRS and the BJP.
Interestingly, the timing of this “understanding” was significant as it came after the Karnataka elections. The BJP, which was very aggressive against KCR, hit a speed bump in Telangana, and KCR began going slow on the saffron party.
The ED and CBI were kept away from Kavitha. The die was cast after Bandi Sanjay was eased out as president of BJP Telangana and a more soft-spoken Union Minister G Kishan Reddy was brought in, ostensibly to fight the Reddy-dominated Congress.
Senior journalist and political analyst S Nagesh Kumar said that there was no empirical evidence that the BJP and the BRS were working hand in glove, yet the narrative that has been built on this premise was being pushed among Muslims, especially by the Congress.
“The Muslims might look at the Congress this time as the latter had earned goodwill by fighting the hijab ban in Karnataka,” he told South First, and pointed out that there was no contradicting the fact the people want change, but he said he cannot guess the percentage of defection.
Another senior journalist and political analyst D Ratna Kumar said that a change of guard was imminent in Telangana and the Muslims would play their part in it.
In the GHMC area, the AIMIM has a sway over Muslims. But factors like dropping sitting MLA Mumtaz Khan in the Charminar segment may upset the AIMIM applecart.
Mumtaz Khan might queer the pitch in other constituencies for the BRS in his attempt to vent his ire on the AIMIM. In electoral terms, he cannot do much to the AIMIM’s interests in the Charminar segment..
With the Congress trying to establish itself as the only party that could fight the BJP, the political discourse has shifted from “why Congress” to “why not Congress”.
The Muslims per se do not have anything against the Congress, but they were not supporting it as it remained an underdog in the 2014 and 2018 elections. Now that it appears to be challenging the BRS and is already smelling victory, a significant chunk of Muslim voters might back the Congress.
Another senior journalist, Syed Aminul Hasan Jaffri, disputed the discourse that since the Congress fought against the BJP in Karnataka and brought it down, the Muslims in Telangana would support it.
The fact those who put forth this hypothesis ignore is that, in Karnataka, the BJP was in power and not in Telangana. In the neighbouring state, the BJP was the tormentor of the Muslims which united them and brought it down.
“In Telangana, the situation is entirely different. The Muslim community in Telangana does not have any issues with the BRS government and they are beneficiaries of the state’s welfare schemes. This apart, there is no anti-incumbency wave against KCR though there might be some local problems,” he told South First.
He said if the Congress won in Karnataka, apart from Muslims, there were several other factors and these were missing in Telangana. In the neighbouring state, other communities too were not happy with the BJP dispensation. “The Lingayats were a divided lot. Vokkaligas were looking for an alternative and found a leader in DK Shivakumar,” he said.
Most Muslims in Telangana live in towns and villages and a large percentage of them are poor and they are beneficiaries of the welfare schemes of the state government. This may make them support the BRS this time too.
He said the Muslims would not be carried away by the talk that the both BJP and the BRS were hand in glove. On the other hand, they think it was the Congress and the BJP which had entered into a tacit understanding.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP won Nizamabad, Secunderabad, and Karimnagar, apparently with the help of the Congress.
He dismissed the call of the JAC of Muslim organisations in Hyderabad as one given by a paper organisation which may not have any impact.
He, however, felt that the call by the Jamat-e-Islami Hind to Muslims to support the Congress in 69 seats may have some impact.
But he was clear that there was no way the entire Muslim community vote would shift to the Congress, although a greater number may favour the grand old party this time, compared to the 2018 election.
