With seats being allocated based on the 2026 Census, states with larger populations will gain more seats, while those with slower growth will either retain or lose seats.
Published Feb 27, 2025 | 6:00 PM ⚊ Updated Feb 27, 2025 | 6:00 PM
Lok Sabha chamber of the new Parliament building. (Creative Commons)
Synopsis: Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin initiated a call for political parties in his state to unite against the delimitation, based on the 2026 Census. The primary concern expressed by Stalin is that delimitation would diminish the political weight of South India, as seat allocation would now favour states with larger populations. Union Home Minister Amit Shah said that “not a single seat will be reduced in any Southern state.
With the Union government’s proposed delimitation exercise based on the 2026 Census data looming large, Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin on Tuesday, 25 February, initiated a call for political parties in his state to unite in formal opposition to the plan. Stalin warned that the process posed an existential threat to South India’s political future.
Addressing reporters in Chennai, Stalin stated: “Tamil Nadu is compelled to wage a major battle for its rights. An all-party meeting is being convened on 5 March, and we are going to send invitations to over 40 political parties from Tamil Nadu registered with the Election Commission of India (ECI).
“The threat of delimitation is hanging over the southern states like the sword of Damocles. Tamil Nadu, a leader in all HDIs, faces a serious danger.”
The Delimitation Commission of India is responsible for redrawing the boundaries of parliamentary and assembly constituencies based on the latest Census data. It ensures that each constituency has roughly equal population representation, preventing distortions where some MPs represent vastly larger electorates than others.
However, since 1976, seat reallocation has been frozen, meaning that the current distribution of Lok Sabha seats is still based on the 1971 Census. The 84th Amendment (2002) under the Vajpayee Government extended this freeze until after 2026, ensuring that states with lower population growth were not penalised for their family planning efforts.
Now, with the freeze set to lift, the next delimitation exercise will be based on the 2026 Census, drastically altering the distribution of parliamentary seats.
The primary concern expressed by Stalin is that delimitation would diminish the political weight of South India, as seat allocation would now favour states with larger populations – primarily those in the North.
South Indian states of Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Telangana have significantly reduced fertility rates over the past decades through effective family planning, healthcare, and education policies.
According to a 2019 report by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Tamil Nadu’s fertility rate dropped below 2.0 as early as 2001, meaning it has achieved population stabilisation.
Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, in contrast, had fertility rates above 4.0 until as recently as 2015, leading to rapid population growth.
“The Union government plans to conduct the delimitation exercise based on the 2026 Census. Population has been a key national objective, and Tamil Nadu has successfully achieved it through effective family planning, prioritising women’s education, and advancements in healthcare,” Stalin stated in his address to media persons in Chennai on 25 February.
“Delimitation will reduce Tamil Nadu’s representation in the Indian Parliament, while states with larger populations will gain more seats. Tamil Nadu’s voice will be suppressed. This is not just about the number of MPs, this is about Tamil Nadu’s rights.”
In a post on X later the same day, the chief minister further emphasised that the issue was relevant to the whole of South India, not just Tamil Nadu.
“A democratic process should not penalise states that have successfully managed population growth, led in development, and made significant contributions to national progress,” he wrote.
“We need a fair, transparent, and equitable approach that upholds true federalism.”
With seats being allocated based on the 2026 Census, states with larger populations will gain more seats, while those with slower growth will either retain or lose seats.
A report from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace based on 2026 projection suggests:
Stalin’s concern that Tamil Nadu’s voice would be “suppressed” is largely supported by these figures, which show a clear shift in parliamentary representation towards North India.
Meanwhile, Southern states also fear that despite their economic contributions, they will have a lesser say in national policies under the new delimitations.
BRS Working President KT Rama Rao responded positively to Stalin’s words in a post on X, potentially the first of other South Indian leaders joining Stalin’s call.
“I totally agree with Thiru Stalin and strongly support him on this. You cannot penalize the Southern states for religiously implementing family planning when the nation needed it the most,” KTR wrote.
“To execute delimitation without considering the efforts of the southern states is not in the spirit of democracy or federalism. If the center is keen on implementing delimitation- I propose delimitation basing on the fiscal contributions to the Nation.
“None can ignore the contributions of Telangana and Southern states towards nation building. As a case in point, while Telangana constitutes only 2.8 percent of the country’s population, it contributes to more than 5.2 percent of the nation’s GDP.”
Similarly, states like Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, and Kerala contribute disproportionately to India’s economy and tax revenues, yet stand to lose political influence under the new system.
Amidst this growing threat, Union Home Minister Amit Shah sought to allay anti-delimitation sentiment, asserting that “not a single seat will be reduced in any Southern state on a pro-rata basis” and that South India would receive its “fair share” of new seats.
“The CM of Tamil Nadu always talks about the injustice that the Modi Government has done to them. Today a meeting is being held where they are saying they will not let the South suffer on account of delimitation,” Shah said during an address to BJP party workers at an inauguration of party offices in Tamil Nadu.
“Mr Stalin ji, the Modi government has made it clear in Lok Sabha that after delimitation, on a pro-rata basis, not a single seat will be reduced in any Southern state. And I want to reassure the public of South India that Modi ji has kept all your interests in mind to make sure that not even one seat is reduced pro-rata. And whatever increase is there, Southern states will get a fair share, there is no reason to doubt this.”
He then proceeded to attack the DMK government, alleging the call against delimitation was more about the party distracting from its own governance failures in the state.
Shah’s reference to pro rata allocation potentially indicates that the Union government may consider expanding the total number of Lok Sabha seats rather than redistributing them within the current 545-seat framework.
A larger Lok Sabha, possibly up to 848 seats, as projected by the Carnegie report, would allow UP, Bihar, and Rajasthan to gain seats without reducing Tamil Nadu or Kerala’s representation.
Regardless, the BJP stands to gain the most from the process.
As per Carnegie’s simulation of the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, if seats were allocated proportionally, the BJP would have won 299 seats instead of 282.
Uttar Pradesh alone would have gained 11 seats, strengthening BJP’s dominance in the state.
Bihar, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh, largely BJP strongholds, would have seen seat increases.
Regional parties from South India, as well as Congress, would have lost representation, in contrast.
The 5 March all-party meeting in Tamil Nadu, called by Stalin, is expected to be a major flashpoint in the delimitation debate.
The DMK said it has sent invitations to over 40 regional parties, and based on the success of the meet, potentially other Southern parties may seek to form a formal political coalition against the exercise, escalating already brewing tensions between the Centre and Southern states.
“This meeting is the first step towards uniting all parties and leaders in the state to address this critical issue. I urge everyone to rise above party differences and raise a united voice for Tamil Nadu,” Stalin said.
In the past, the proposed delimitation has found opposition from all South Indian parties, but it has been sporadic.
Nevertheless, the underlying impact of delimitation, under the current proposal remains clear: States in North India are set to gain significantly from the delimitation, while Southern states risk losing political leverage.
(Compiled by Dese Gowda; Edited by Muhammed Fazil.)
