Peoples Pulse Exit Polls: It’s 2-1 in favour of Congress in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan

The survey predicts that in Chhattisgarh, the Congress may return to power without much ado. However, the BJP is predicted to bounce back in the vital state of Rajasthan where it is projected to trounce the Congress.

The incumbent Mizo National Front (MNF) is slated to end up as the single-largest party in Mizoram where the survey does not predict a clear winner but gives the Front the edge.

The South First–Peoples Pulse Exit Poll for Telangana will come later in the day.

Here are the detailed projections:

Pre-poll Survey: Edge to Congress in Telangana

Congress return in MP, banking on SC/ST vote shift

MP projected vote share.

The Congress is expected to return to power in Madhya Pradesh, ending the BJP’s rule with a simple majority of 117 seats in the just-concluded Assembly elections, according to an exit poll by Peoples Pulse.

The People Pulse Exit Poll finds a “mood for change” in the state, projecting 43 percent votes for the Congress and 39 percent for the incumbent BJP (with a margin of error of +/- 2 percent). The vote share translates into a simple majority for the challenger Congress. In the 230-member House, the simple majority comes to 116 seats.

Based on a conservative estimate, the survey found that the Congress is expected to get 117 seats, which is just above the majority mark.

Seat predictions for Madhya Pradesh

The Congress may get in the range of 117-139 seats and the BJP is expected to win 91-113 seats with others projected to get eight seats.

The survey says that “approximately, a four percent vote share gap between these two rival parties in the state as per the survey indicates a simple majority for the Congress which has not been able to touch this magic number after the 1998 Assembly election in the state”.

MP projected seats.

Across the seven regions in Madhya Pradesh, the BJP is expected to perform well in Bundelkhand, Mahakoushal, and Vindhya. In contrast, the Congress is expected to do well in Chambal, Malwa North, and Malwa-Timar-Nimar. A close contest is expected in Madhya Bharat.

The survey shows that as opposed to the BJP’s performance in its strongholds, the Congress may get a near clean-sweep of seats in the three regions where it is expected to do well. The projection is that the Congress would be getting 79-97 of the 100 seats.

In terms of the social break-up of the vote, the BJP is expected to get a larger chunk of the vote from the “general” castes (upper castes), though the difference between the BJP and the Congress vote may not be more than 3.8 percentage points.

On the other hand, both the Scheduled Caste and Scheduled Tribe (SC/ST) voters may choose the Congress over the BJP. Of the total SC/ST voters, while 44.5 percent of votes go to the Congress, 33.4 percent are predicted for the BJP, with a percentage point difference of 11. The Other Backward Classes (OBC) vote may be equally divided between the two parties.

The clear preference of the SC/ST for the Congress is expected to tilt the scales decisively in favour of the grand old party.

In Rajasthan, BJP wrests power from Congress

Rajasthan projected seats

The Peoples Pulse Exit Poll for Rajasthan anoints the BJP as the winner in the Assembly elections with a clear majority, predicting seats in the range of 95-115 in the 200-seat House. A simple majority requires 101 seats.

For the BJP, that is a major victory considering it managed only 63 seats in 2018 with a vote share of 38 percent. This time the vote share may go up to 41 percent.

Even though the Congress would lose the election, it is expected to win anywhere between a wider of 73-95 seats. It may manage to increase its vote share from 39 percent in 2018 to 40 percent — not much of a difference from the BJP’s.

Pre-poll Survey: KCR remains top preference as Telangana chief minister

In Chhattisgarh, Congress returns to power

The Peoples Pulse Exit Poll for Chhattisgarh predicts the return of the Congress to power though with reduced seats while the challenger BJP is expected to double its number.

Chhattisgarh projected seats.

The prediction for the Congress is to win 59 seats in the 90-seat Assembly but within the range of 54-64 seats. The BJP is expected to raise its previous tally of 15 to 36 seats but within the range of 29-39 seats.

The Congress vote share may increase by a moderate four percent from 43 percent in 2018 to 47 percent. However, the BJP is expected to see a major increase of nine percent from 33 percent to 42 percent.

According to the survey, while the BJP and the Congress indulged in competitive welfarism, the Congress played one step ahead in this game and announced higher paddy procurement prices and more per month grants to women than the BJP.

The most important announcement of the Congress was a 2018-like loan waiver which got immense traction among the voters and for which BJP did not make a counter promise.

As the main Opposition party, the BJP may have failed to create a state-wide narrative against the incumbent Congress government. Its previous campaigns around religious conversion, allegations of liquor scam or scam in PSC, etc, failed to pick up steam, the survey says.

MNF may be single largest party in Mizoram

Mizoram projected seats.

The Peoples Pulse Exit Poll for the north-eastern state of Mizoram predicts the incumbent Mizo National Front to emerge as the single largest party in the 2023 Assembly election,

The survey does not predict a clear winner, with the MNF coming closest to the magical figure of 21 in the 40-member House by winning 16-20 seats with a 33 percent vote share.

The Zoram People’s Movement (ZPM) may get 10-14 seats as against eight in the last election, with its vote share increasing from 22 percent to 24 percent.

The Congress is expected to come third with 6-10 seats with a 29 percent vote share — bettering its previous performance. The BJP is expected to bring up the rear with 2-3 seats.