Southern States may contribute 129 seats to Parliament, but its electoral arena is fraught with complexities of caste, language and regionalism.
Indian Voter hand with voting sign after casting vote in election
The Indian south is already in the thick of electoral strategising by the political parties. The Election Commission is expected to announce the schedule for the 2024 general election sometime in March. The parties are into striking alliances, assessing the winnability of prospective candidates and digesting people’s concerns for their manifestoes.
The national leaders have already completed a round of campaigning in the five southern states.
The South contributes 129 seats to the Lok Sabha out of the total 543. Here is the state-wise break-up:
The region has a unique standing in the contemporary political history of India in the sense that it is where the Bharatiya Janata Party tries its best to have a solid southern foothold but has yet to succeed fully.
It formed a government in Karnataka but has yet to open its account in Andhra Pradesh (It won one seat in the Kerala Assembly in 2016, but lost it in 2021). The party has won seats in just one state, Telangana, in parliamentary elections.
On the other hand, the Congress has seen a reversal of fortunes in the South, winning Assembly elections decisively and forming governments in Karnataka and Telangana. It has a decent presence in Kerala and Tamil Nadu (in alliance with the DMK), though it seeks to restore its bruised dignity in Andhra Pradesh.
Being national parties, the stakes of the Congress and the BJP are understandably high. The Congress, which seems to believe the South is its stronghold, wants that assumption to translate into Lok Sabha seats this time. The South is the BJP’s so-called Holy Grail, as it claims to be on its way to capturing 400 parliamentary seats in 2024.
The South has 129 Lok Sabha seats. Of them, the Congress has 20, and the BJP has 29. The latter’s surge is due to winning 25 of the 28 seats in Karnataka in 2019. The Congress comes second thanks to 15 of the 20 seats it got in Kerala.
The seats in the five state Assemblies total 892. The BJP has 78 seats, a whopping 66 coming from the single state of Karnataka. The Congress fares much better, with 238 seats thanks to 135 seats in Karnataka and 64 in Telangana.
Interestingly, Andhra Pradesh was an unachievable summit for both parties last time. They ended up with double ducks in the Assembly and Lok Sabha elections held simultaneously in 2019. They couldn’t open their accounts in that state.
Of the regional parties, the DMK holds sway over Tamil Nadu. In Kerala, the ruling Left Front, LDF, intends to wrest as many Lok Sabha seats as possible from the Congress. It has even launched a campaign to ask Rahul Gandhi to vacate the Wayanad seat. It is aware the parliamentary results will impact the Assembly results two years later.
In Telangana, the Bharatiya Rashtra Samiti is licking its wounds and hopes to stand its ground in the general elections as a first step to revive itself in the state. In Karnataka, the Janata Dal (Secular) exists in alliance with the BJP.
It is Andhra Pradesh that will test all political mettle in 2024. The Congress hopes to avoid a repeat of the previous miserable result, buoyed by winning neighbouring Telangana. The Telugu Desam Party feels a tie-up with the Jana Sena Party, and possibly, the BJP will be a formidable opponent to the ruling YSRCP.
Friends, foes and even family arraigned against the YSRCP; the regional party is leaving no stone unturned. Having won 22 out of 25 Lok Sabha seats and 151 out of 175 seats in 2019, it has an electoral legacy to live up to.
Here is a state-wise ready reckoner on how various political parties performed in the five states in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections and the last round of Assembly elections, along with a brief on respective political standings.
The simultaneous elections to the Assembly and Lok Sabha in April-May 2019 are all set to generate a lot of heat. The ruling YSRCP, led by Chief Minister YS Jagan Mohan Reddy, and the TDP, headed by N Chandrababu Naidu, are locking horns.
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With pure hatred for each other coursing through their veins, the elections would most likely resemble a Hollywood action-thriller. Naidu flexes his muscles, riding shotgun with Pawan Kalyan of Jana Sena.
In the Lok Sabha elections 2019, the YSRCP made a clean sweep of 22 of the 25 Lok Sabha seats. The TDP, which was the ruling party in the state till then, had to contend with just three seats. The BJP and the INC were obliterated in the elections.
The results of the Lok Sabha elections were seen as people’s expression of anger at Chandrababu Nadu’s dispensation. The anti-incumbency, primarily on account of the people’s opposition to the ruling party MLAs becoming constituency-level satraps, was exploited by YS Jagan Mohan Reddy.
In the Assembly elections held simultaneously with the Lok Sabha polls in 2019, the people voted overwhelmingly for the YSRCP in both the Assembly and Lok Sabha elections, ending the rule of the TDP, which had come to represent the Kamma community in the state.
The YSRCP bagged 151 of the 175 seats in the assembly, and the TDP had to contend with 23 seats. Jana Sena won only one seat, and its founder and film actor Pawan Kalyan lost the two seats from where he contested – Gajuwaka and Bhimavaram. Jana Sena candidate Rapaka Vara Prasada Rao won from Razole (SC) constituency.
Though the CPM, CPI, and the BSP fought the elections in alliance with the JSP, they also drew a blank in the election.
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The Assembly elections also saw the emergence of Reddy-raj in the State, which has, ever since its inception, been baying for the blood of the TDP and its chief, N Chandrababu Naidu.
The people did not forgive the INC for dividing the state and denying Hyderabad to the truncated state of Andhra Pradesh. They relegated it to the dustbin for the second consecutive term. The BJP, which is not a major player, could not influence the voters as expected despite Narendra Modi having emerged as some supernova at the national level.
After losing the Assembly election in 2014 to the TDP, YSRCP chief YS Jagan Mohan Reddy kicked off his 3,648-km-long Praja Sankalpa Yatra on 6 November 2017. Jagan Mohan Reddy, in his padayatra, kept attacking Chandrababu Naidu for aligning with the BJP and compromising on the special category status for the truncated state of Andhra Pradesh.
As his campaign became more intensive, Chandrababu Naidu feared losing out to Jagan Mohan Reddy, stepped out of the NDA in March 2018 and took up cudgels against the BJP. As Jagan Mohan Reddy targeted Naidu for backing out on fighting for special category status, the TDP supremo began slamming the former for corruption. Jagan Mohan Reddy travelled through 130 of the 175 Assembly segments. He began his padayatra at Idupulapaya in the Kadapa district and ended it at Itchapuram in Srikakulam district.
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The Congress wants to repeat the magic of its Assembly elections in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls. It aims for at least 20 of the total 28 seats in the state. The party, full of energy after its victory in the Assembly elections, is preparing earnestly to drive the BJP away from its soil.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the Congress suffered humiliation as it could win only one seat. The BJP walked away with the cake, winning 25 seats and claiming a 51.75 percent vote share. Now an NDA partner – Sumalatha – won one seat (Mandya). She had contested as an Independent candidate creating history with her victory in the Vokkaliga heartland.
The Congress’ tragedy was that though it had claimed a vote share of 32.11 percent, it could win only one seat. Its ally Janata Dal(S) picked up one seat, with a vote share of 9.74 percent.
Ananta Kumar Hegde of BJP won from Uttar Kannada with a record majority of about 4.79 lakh votes, the highest in the state. The huge margin surprised even the BJP leaders. Modi’s mojo seemed to have worked in his favour in his constituency.
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The Congress’s decisive victory in the May 2023 Assembly election is now a catalyst for the Lok Sabha polls. Driven by the five ‘Guarantees’, Congress rode to success in Karnataka and now hopes the delivery of these guarantees will give dividends in the Lok Sabha elections.
The party won 135 of the total 224 seats in the 2023 Assembly polls. The election ended the BJP rule in the state. It saw Siddaramaiah becoming the chief minister for the second time. He was chief minister from 2013-18.
The alliances have now changed. JD(S) that was an ally of Congress in the 2019 Lok Sabha election is now a partner in BJP-led NDA. Bruised with the assembly election debacle, former Prime Minister HD Deve Gowda’s party joined hands with the BJP. The BJP-JDS combine has suffered two electoral setbacks in Karnataka since the assembly elections. The partners, however, are confident of winning over 24 seats in Lok Sabha elections 2024.
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Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan leads the LDF-led government in the state. Pinarayi Vijayan (CPM), the incumbent chief minister, won from Dharmadam in the Kannur district with a vote share of 59.61 percent.
The coalition won the 2021 assembly elections with an unassailable majority with 99 seats of the total strength of 140.
The UDF, which is the main opposition alliance, has 41 members. The BJP, which has been trying to get a toe hold in the state, drew a blank.
The voters gave K Shailaja of CPM a massive victory margin of 67,013 votes from Mattanur in Kannur district in appreciation of how she handled Covid-19.
The UPA, headed by the Congress, made a clean sweep of 19 of the total 20 Lok Sabha seats in the state. The LDF, now in power in the state, bit the dust in the elections by winning only one seat. The NDA was decimated but surprisingly claimed a vote share of 15 percent.
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The fact that Rahul Gandhi was contesting from Wayanad, which he won, was believed to have positively impacted the party’s prospects in all the other constituencies.
Rajya Sabha member (BJP) V Muralidharan was taken into the Union cabinet, though the party or its NDA partners could not win even one seat in the Lok Sabha elections.
The UDF in the state struck an alliance with the UPA at the centre and contested the election.
It reaped a rich harvest of seats. The LDF, whose main partners are CPM and CPI, won one seat while the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) was wiped out. Now Left parties and Congress – both partners in Opposition’s INDIA bloc, continue to be rivals in Kerala.
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The state is currently ruled by the DMK-led Secular Progressive alliance bloc, led by Chief Minister M K Stalin. The DMK-led alliance came to power in the 2021 assembly elections by defeating the AIADMK-BJP alliance.
The DMK has a comfortable majority in the assembly, with 133 of the 234 seats. With its alliance partners, the ruling bloc has 159 seats in the assembly.
The AIADMK was in power for ten years and is now the main opposition party with 66 seats. The BJP has been trying to increase its footprint and has only four seats. The BJP’s vote share and seats are also a result of its alliance with AIADMK.
This Lok Sabha election, the BJP is on its own in Tamil Nadu with AIADMK breaking off from the alliance. The primary reason for AIADMK’s decision to leave NDA is touted to be BJP’s Tamil Nadu State President, former IPS officer-turned-politician K Annamalai.
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In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections too the DMK-led alliance front swept Tamil Nadu. It was as if the 2019 Lok Sabha election was an indicator of what was to come in the 2021 assembly elections. DMK led alliance won 38 of the 39 seats in Tamil Nadu in 2019 despite a BJP-AIADMK alliance.
The AIADMK and BJP have been criticising the DMK for its lapses in performance for the flaming row he has with the state governor.
In recent times, however, BJP has positioned itself as a stronger Opposition voice than the AIADMK.
While the BJP was hoping to ride piggyback on its dominant partner AIADMK, the regional party faced internal turmoil eventually leading to a split.
While O Paneerselvam was ousted from the AIADMK, Edapaddi Palaniswami took over the reigns of what is still remembered as J Jayalalithaa’s party. Both AIADMK and BJP are now going to polls by themselves, sans an alliance.
Ending a decade-long rule by BRS, the Congress rode to power in the Assembly elections held in November last year. TPCC president A Revanth Reddy became the first Congress chief minister of the state after its creation in 2014.
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Though there were three other powerful contenders for the top post in the state- Mallu Bhatti Vikramarka, N Uttam Kumar Reddy, and Komatireddy Venkatareddy, the high command chose him for the top post for leading the party to victory in the elections.
Vikramarka, a Dalit, became the deputy chief minister, Uttam Kumar Reddy, Irrigation Minister, and Komatireddy, Roads and Buildings Minister.
Of the 119 assembly seats, the Congress bagged 64 and its ally CPI one seat, defeating the BRS decisively in the election. The main factor for the BRS’ defeat is attributed to the “dictatorship” of KCR and for not being accessible to the people. Also, the anti-incumbency built over the last ten years helped the Congress.
This apart, the BRS had the misfortune of facing the ire of students when question papers for examinations conducted by the TSPSC leaked. This apart, the BRS’s manifesto was not up to the people’s expectations.
The welfare schemes, including the double bedroom houses and Dalit Bandhu, had recoiled on the BRS as those left out outnumbered those who got the benefit.
Another factor that worked against the BRS was the anti-incumbency against the BRS legislators, who became a “law unto themselves” back in their constituencies. Yet, they were all fielded in the elections, barring a few.
There was an alleged assassination attempt on BRS Medak Lok Sabha member K Prabhakar Reddy in the run-up to the election. He won from Dubbak, defeating sitting BJP MLA M Raghunandan Rao by a huge margin.
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On the other hand, the Congress manifesto was a hit with the people. It offered, among others, six guarantees, including free travel to women on RTC buses, ₹2,500 cash transfer to housewives, 200 units of free power for domestic use, provision of LPG cylinder for ₹500, and old age pensions of ₹4,000 per month among others.
In the election, the BJP emerged stronger by winning eight seats. They had only one seat in the last assembly, but the number grew to three after the saffron party won two by-elections – Huzurabad and Dubbak.
Interestingly, all the three MPs who fought the election for Assembly were defeated, and non-descript personalities won eight seats, one of them being K Venkataramana Reddy, who defeated both KCR and Revanth Reddy in Kamareddy. The AIMIM retained its seven seats, again proving its vice-like grip on old city Assembly segments.
In the Lok Sabha elections 2019, the BRS won nine of the 17 seats, the first sign that KCR’s charism was dimming. The BJP bounced back from its ignominious showing in the 2018 Assembly elections when it won only one seat and grabbed four Lok Sabha seats.
The Congress, too, showed promise by picking up three seats. The AIMIM’s stranglehold on the Hyderabad Lok Sabha seat continued with MIM chief Asaduddin Owaisi emerging victorious.
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