All the exit polls for Lok Sabha elections turned out to be wrong as the BJP-led NDA's performance was far below the forecast of exit polls.
India Today-Axis My India had forecast 361-401 seats for the BJP-led alliance and 131-166 seats for the opposition INDIA bloc.
Exit polls, surveys conducted immediately after voters leave the polling stations, are supposed to offer immediate insight into the outcome of elections. These polls, crucial to elections in India because of the preliminary insights they provide into voters’ sentiments, turned out to be significantly off for 2024 Lok Sabha election results.
The performance of the BJP-led NDA was far below the forecast of exit polls, which had predicted over 350 seats for the ruling alliance. The NDA secured 294 seats, while the INDIA bloc achieved 234 seats.
After being routed in the 2019 polls, the Congress made a dramatic comeback in states like Rajasthan and Haryana, while its tally improved considerably in Uttar Pradesh, thanks to its ally, the Samajwadi Party.
In the 2019 polls, the BJP won 303 seats, and the NDA tally was 353. The Congress had bagged 53 seats, with its allies securing 38. The INDIA bloc was formed by opposition parties to challenge the BJP in the Lok Sabha elections.
South First takes a look at the states where exit polls were way off the truth.
Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party has surprised and shocked everyone by winning 37 seats, making it the only party in the state to send the highest number of MPs to the Lok Sabha. The Congress, which joined forces with the SP, won six seats as part of the INDIA bloc. Altogether, the opposition group INDIA won 43 seats in Uttar Pradesh. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which was in a tough race with the SP, only got 33 seats, a significant drop from the 63 seats they won in 2019.
Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) won two seats, while Apna Dal (Soneylal) won one seat. One seat went to Chandrashekhar Azad of the Azad Samaj Party.
For Uttar Pradesh, Today’s Chanakya predicted that the BJP and its allies would get 68 (± 7) seats, while the SP and Congress would get 12 (± 6) seats, and others would get zero.
Axis My India, one of the reliable agencies, also got it wrong. The agency predicted 67-72 seats for the NDA, 8-12 for INDIA, and 0-2 for others.
ETG Research had predicted 66-70 seats for the NDA, 10-13 for INDIA, and 0-1 for others, while Republic TV-P Marq predicted 71 seats for the NDA and 9 seats for INDIA.
In West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress (TMC) won 29 seats, while the BJP secured 12 seats, and the Congress won one seat. Today’s Chanakya had predicted that the BJP would win 24 (± 5) seats, the TMC would win 17 (± 5) seats, and the Congress would win 1 (± 1) seat.
ETG Research had predicted that the NDA would win 20-22 seats, the TMC would win 21-24 seats, and the Congress would win 1-2 seats. The prediction went haywire.
Axis My India had predicted 26-31 seats for the BJP, 0-2 seats for the Congress, and 11-14 seats for the TMC. Republic TV-P Marq had predicted 22 seats for the BJP, 19 seats for the TMC, and one seat for the Congress.
In Maharashtra, the INDIA alliance, which comprises Shiv Sena (UBT), NCP (SCP), and Congress, fought together, while the NDA partners —Shiv Sena, NCP, and BJP —also contested together.
As per the results, INDIA partners won 30 seats: SS (UBT) – 9, NCP (SCP) – 8, Congress – 13, while the NDA secured 17 seats: BJP – 9, SS – 7, and NCP – 1. One independent candidate also won the election from the state.
Today’s Chanakya had predicted that the NDA would get 33 (± 5) seats, while INDIA would get 15 (± 5) seats, with no other candidates winning. Axis My India predicted that the NDA would get 28-32 seats, while INDIA would get 16-20 seats, and others would get 0-2 seats.
ETG Research predicted 24-28 seats for the NDA, 20-24 seats for INDIA, and zero seats for any other party. Meanwhile, Republic TV had predicted 31 seats for the NDA, 17 seats for INDIA, and zero for others.
In Karnataka, the NDA – comprising BJP and JD(S) – secured 19 seats – 17 for BJP and 2 for JD(S) – while the Congress won nine seats.
Axis My India had predicted 23-25 seats for the NDA and 3-5 seats for Congress. Today’s Chanakya had predicted that the NDA would get 24 (± 4) seats, while Congress would secure 4 (± 4) seats in the state.
ETG Research predicted that the NDA would get 21-22 seats, Congress would get 4-6 seats, and others would secure 1-2 seats. Republic TV predicted 22 seats for the NDA and six seats for Congress.
In Tamil Nadu, the story unfolded in a singular direction. The INDIA alliance, led by DMK in the state, secured all 39 seats, contrary to the predictions in the Exit Polls.
ETG Research had forecasted 34-35 seats for the INDIA alliance, 2-3 seats for the NDA alliance, and two seats for the AIADMK alliance.
Today’s Chanakya had predicted that the AIADMK alliance would secure zero (± 2) seats, while INDIA would claim 29 (± 5) seats, and the NDA would secure 10 (± 4) seats.
Axis My India had anticipated 33-37 seats for the INDIA alliance, 02-04 seats for the NDA alliance, and 02-04 seats for others.
Published on 1 June after the last phase of Lok Sabha elections came to an end, all exit polls forecast a victory with over 350 seats for the BJP-led NDA government, with News 24-Today’s Chanakya predicting even 400 seats for the alliance.
While India Today-Axis My India had forecast 361-401 seats for the BJP-led alliance and 131-166 seats for the opposition INDIA bloc in the 543-member Lok Sabha, the ABP-C Voter predicted 353-383 seats for the ruling alliance and 152-182 seats for the rival bloc.
Today’s Chanakya predicted 335 seats to the BJP and 400 to the NDA, with a margin of 15 seats either way. It gave 107 seats to the opposition alliance with a possibility of its tally going up or down by 11 seats.
The Times Now-ETG Research’s exit poll gave 358 and 152 seats to the NDA and the INDIA bloc, respectively.
The Republic TV-P Marq poll claimed that the ruling alliance will win up to 359 seats and the opposition INDIA bloc will bag 154 seats. The Republic TV-Matrize poll gave 353-368 seats to the NDA and 118-133 seats to the opposition.
The Jan Ki Baat poll gave 362-392 seats to the ruling NDA and 141-161 to the opposition alliance. The India TV-CNX gave them 371-401 and 109-139 seats respectively, while the corresponding tally predicted by News Nation was 342-378 and 153-169.
News 18 predicted that the BJP, on its own, will get 306-315 seats while its alliance will bag 355-370 seats.
(Edited by Neena)
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