Published May 04, 2026 | 7:30 PM ⚊ Updated May 04, 2026 | 7:30 PM
Kerala went to the polls on 9 April.
Synopsis: Counting day for the 2026 assembly polls has once again put the credibility of exit polls in doubt, with almost all failing to capture the voters’ mood. In Tamil Nadu, most polls missed the scale of support for the TVK, and in West Bengal some even projected a TMC return. In Kerala, they got the outcome right but underestimated the UDF’s support, while Assam was the only state where projections closely matched the result.
The results of the assembly elections in Tamil Nadu and West Bengal have once again put the credibility of exit polls in question. Except in Assam—and to some extent Kerala—most polls got the voters’ mood badly wrong.
As of 6 pm on 4 May, counting was still underway, but a pattern was already clear. The TVK in Tamil Nadu was the biggest surprise, winning 33 seats and leading in 77 more at the last count, emerging as the single largest party. Only one exit poll – Axis My India predicted TVK would be the single largest party. However, the same agency was woefully wrong about DMK and AIADMK’s seat and vote share predictions.
As of 6 PM on Monday, in Kerala, as expected, the UDF had crossed the majority mark of 71 by a wide margin, winning 95 seats and leading in two more. In West Bengal, the TMC was set to lose to the BJP for the first time in 16 years, while the NDA was headed for a clean sweep in Assam.
Here is how the tentative results compare with the exit poll averages released immediately after voting ended on 29 April.
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Most exit polls projected a clear advantage for the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) in the 234-member Assembly, with estimates ranging from about 110 to 150 seats. The All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) was placed between 60 and 120 seats.
Actor Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) was cast as the wildcard. Projections swung wildly, from as few as five seats to over 100 in some estimates.
Several pollsters clustered around a DMK lead. People’s Pulse put the DMK at 125–145 seats, AIADMK at 65–80, and TVK at 18–24, with others at 2–6. Matrize estimated DMK at 122–132, AIADMK at 87–100, TVK at 10–12, and Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK) at 0–6. P-Marq projected DMK at 125–145, AIADMK at 65–85, and TVK at 16–26.
Others went further, projecting a stronger DMK mandate. AGNI gave it 169 seats, Minnambalam 155, and Chanakya 145–160, with AIADMK at 50–65 and TVK at 13–18.
A smaller set of polls pointed to a tighter—or even inverted—contest. SPICK Media projected AIADMK at 124–127 against DMK’s 89–101. Vote Vibe put AIADMK at 114–124 and DMK at 103–113, and gave vote shares of 39.9 percent for AIADMK, 38.9 percent for DMK, 15.8 percent for TVK, and 3.5 percent for NTK. JVC Exit Poll placed AIADMK at 128–147 and DMK at 75–90.
Only a few polls seriously accounted for a TVK breakthrough. Axis My India projected TVK at 98–120 seats, ahead of DMK (92–110) and AIADMK (22–32), though it still fell short of the final scale. Kamakhya Analytics projected a three-way contest—DMK at 78–95, AIADMK at 68–84, and TVK at 67–81—and said TVK could cross 60 seats. People’s Insight gave TVK 30–40 seats, with DMK at 120–140 and AIADMK at 60–70. Satta Bazaar, by contrast, kept TVK to 7–9 seats while projecting DMK at 145–155 and AIADMK at 45–65.
Results (as of 6 pm, 4 May; 234/234 leads, majority 118):
TVK: 30 won, 78 leads – total 108
DMK+: 14 won, 60 leads – total 74
AIADMK+: 7 won, 45 leads – total 52
NTK: 0
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Most exit polls correctly projected that the United Democratic Front (UDF) would return to power after 10 years with 70 to 85 seats in the 140-member Assembly.
The ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) was placed at about 55 to 70 seats, while the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) was expected to remain marginal at 0 to 5.
Pollsters broadly clustered in that range. People’s Pulse projected UDF at 75–85 and LDF at 55–65, with NDA at 0–3. CNN-News18 estimated UDF at 70–80 and LDF at 58–68, with NDA at 0–4. P-Marq put UDF at 71–79 and LDF at 62–69. Axis My India gave UDF 78–90 and LDF 49–62. Phalodi Satta Bazaar estimated UDF at 78–85 and LDF at 56–66, with NDA at 2–3.
The JVC Exit Poll placed UDF at 72–84 and LDF at 52–61, with NDA at 3–7. Matrize broke from the trend, putting the LDF ahead at 70–75, with UDF at 60–65 and NDA at 3–5.
Results (as of 6 pm, 4 May; 140/140 leads, majority 71):
UDF: 94 won, 3 leads – total 97
LDF: 33 won, 2 leads – total 35
NDA: 3
Others: 5
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Exit polls in West Bengal spanned the spectrum. Some projected an outright majority for the All India Trinamool Congress (TMC), while others gave the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) the edge.
People’s Pulse placed the TMC well ahead at 185 seats, with the BJP at 104 and others at six. P-Marq projected BJP at 162 and TMC at 128, while Chanakya gave BJP 155 and TMC 135.
JVC put BJP at 150 and TMC at 142, and Matrize at 154 and 133 respectively. Today’s Chanakya projected a stronger BJP lead at 192 seats against TMC’s 100.
The poll of polls pointed to a BJP lead at 153 seats, with the TMC at 138 and others at three.
Results (as of 6 pm, 4 May; 293/294 leads, majority 148):
BJP: 40 won, 165 leads – total 205
TMC+: 15 won, 67 leads – total 82
Congress: 2
Left: 1
Others: 3
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Exit polls in Assam projected a decisive win for the BJP-led NDA in the 126-member Assembly, with most projections placing the alliance at or above 90 seats.
Estimates clustered tightly around that mark. P-Marq gave the NDA 88 seats, with the UPA at 35 and others at three. Matrize projected NDA at 90, UPA at 29, and others at seven. JVC and Axis My India both put the NDA at 94 seats, with the UPA at 28 and 30 respectively.
The poll of polls placed the NDA at 92 seats, with the UPA at 30 and others at four.
Results (as of 6 pm, 4 May; 126/126 leads, majority 64):
NDA: 61 won, 31 leads – total 92
Congress+: 4 won, 17 leads – total 21
AIUDF: 2
Others: 11
(Edited by Dese Gowda)
