DMK, AIADMK, Vijay factor, INDIA bloc: Congress is a divided house over Tamil Nadu Assembly polls 2026

While Tamil Nadu state unit leaders want to part ways with DMK in the ‘best interest of party’s growth’, central leadership thinks differently.

Published Jul 26, 2024 | 8:00 AMUpdated Jul 26, 2024 | 8:00 AM

Notwithstanding the camaraderie between AICC senior leader Rahul Gandhi and MK Stalin, Congress leaders in Tamil Nadu wants to part ways with DMK for the sake of the party's growth. Pictured, Stalin launching Gandhi's Bharat Jodo Yatra in Kanniyakumari on 7 September 2022 (Supplied)

The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) is perhaps the strongest ally of the Indian National Congress in the Opposition’s INDIA bloc.

Despite delivering 40 out of 40 combined seats in Tamil Nadu and Puducherry in the Lok Sabha elections 2024, all is not well between DMK and Congress’ state unit.

With sights set on the Tamil Nadu Assembly elections 2026, several Congress leaders in the state no longer want to be an ally of the DMK.

Other than the anti-incumbency factor playing against Chief Minister MK Stalin, the leaders cite several reasons for the party to part ways with the DMK.

Stalin’s health concerns, uncertainty over DMK’s future if Udhayanidhi Stalin is made the deputy chief minister, the possibility of a rainbow coalition of Opposition parties, and more importantly, the growing popularity of actor Vijay, who is set to make his political debut ahead of the Assembly polls in 2026, have compelled the Congress leaders to push for a split.

The Congress’s central leadership isn’t convinced and DMK is confident that the alliance will continue.

B-team of DMK?

While key leaders in Tamil Nadu Congress had made up their minds to quit the party post-Lok Sabha polls, the results numbed their plans.

Given the popularity ratings of Rahul Gandhi — the Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha — in Tamil Nadu in the run-up to the Lok Sabha polls, the leaders now see a chance for the party’s revival.

“We have been reduced to being the B-team of DMK in Tamil Nadu. Congress no longer is recognised as a national party. As long as we are part of this alliance, we will never be able to criticise the DMK for its flawed policies and governance,” said an AICC office-bearer from Tamil Nadu.

“The only way for the Congress to grow in Tamil Nadu is to part ways with the DMK,” he added.

The inability to assert itself on the ground — or even present honest opinions on issues — has left several Congress leaders in Tamil Nadu disappointed. The differences were visible during recent incidents such as the Kallakurichi hooch tragedy (which claimed at least 65 lives), BSP state chief K Armstrong’s murder on 5 July, and the arrest of DMK’s critics.

Related: Arrest me, Seeman dares DMK after YouTuber Duraimurugan’s arrest

Push for AIADMK as an ally

A section of Congress leaders believes that AIADMK is a better-suited ally for Congress in Tamil Nadu Assembly elections.

“The Congress and DMK cadres are always at loggerheads at the district level. We get along well with the AIADMK cadre,” said another Tamil Nadu Congress leader.

Many in the party’s state unit are convinced that an AIADMK-led coalition government will come to power in Tamil Nadu in 2026.

“If the Congress wants to be in the ruling coalition, it should ally with the AIADMK. Tamil Nadu will create history in 2026 with its first coalition government,” said an AICC functionary, who is convinced that the state will throw up a broken mandate in the Assembly polls.

Tamil Nadu has had a trend of voting out incumbent parties since 1984 with the sole exception in 2016, when the AIADMK was re-elected.

Following the death of J Jayalalithaa, AIADMK  has been on a downward spiral. Yet, Congress leaders believe that the AIADMK — given its strong cadre base and caste backing — can put together a rainbow coalition. Congress leaders in Tamil Nadu believe AIADMK may even be open to aligning with BJP once again despite the rivalry between K Annamalai and Edappadi Palaniswamy.

Related: ‘Annamalai is the reason for AIADMK severing ties with BJP’

The INDIA bloc conundrum

One of the strongest partners in the INDIA bloc, Stalin has been a rock-solid supporter of Rahul Gandhi.

It was at Stalin’s 70th birthday celebrations in March 2023 that a call for Opposition unity was made by leaders of parties that are now INDIA bloc partners.

One of the reasons for the Congress’s central leadership to ignore the pleas of state leadership is over the implications the split may have on the INDIA bloc.

“INDIA bloc has served its purpose,” said an AICC office bearer, who bats for splitting from DMK and aligning with AIADMK in Tamil Nadu. “If the Congress were to split from the alliance, the DMK cannot partner with the BJP. It will only further weaken its position in Tamil Nadu,” a Congress leader opined.

It may, however, not be a simple decision for the Lok Sabha’s tenure of five more years. The DMK will be crucial for the Opposition bloc to resist the ruling BJP inside and outside parliament. Other than the strength in parliament, Congress is dependent on INDIA bloc partners in upcoming assembly elections for states like Maharashtra and Bihar.

State Congress leaders believe that the longer they remain in alliance with the DMK, the more ground they will lose as a national party and a viable alternative to DMK — a space that the BJP, another national party — is gaining.

“The central leadership has high regard for MK Stalin and the relationship he has with other INDIA bloc leaders. Splitting from the DMK could be seen as backstabbing but if one wants Congress to grow in Tamil Nadu, there is no other way,” said another Congress leader.

The leader is convinced that Stalin’s rapport with Gandhi may never allow for “backstabbing” the DMK but that comes at the cost of Congress.

Related: Kalaignar. Makkal Thilagam. Puratchi Thalaivi. Thalapathy?

The Vijay factor

When Gandhi responded to a congratulatory tweet from actor Vijay’s party — the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam — on his elevation as the Leader of the Opposition, the DMK was unamused. Other than INDIA bloc leaders, Gandhi had refrained from responding to others — except Vijay.

Congress leaders in Tamil Nadu acknowledge that Vijay, who wants to make his political debut in the 2026 Assembly polls, may not be able to win an overwhelming number of seats.

“Tamil Nadu has always had a section of non-DMK, non-AIADMK voters. Some eight-10 percent of voters floated to Vijayakanth in the past. Some are now with Seeman’s NTK. Vijay could be this 10 percent player. In an election that is likely to throw up a hung verdict, this bloc matters,” pointed out an AICC office-bearer, analysing the party’s prospects in Tamil Nadu.

Related: BJP is DMK’s biggest ‘ally’ and saviour in Tamil Nadu

DMK and its confidence

Even as Tamil Nadu Congress leaders express their disappointment with DMK within closed doors and in public, the DMK seems confident that the alliance will continue.

“Yes, Rahul Gandhi responded to Vijay’s tweet but as a political party, it is natural for them to try to keep an ally in check. DMK has no doubts that this alliance will continue. As long as Sonia Gandhi is around, the Congress will not break away from DMK,” a DMK office-bearer told South First. 

The Congress’s grouse stems from the fact that DMK plays big brother to the party in Tamil Nadu.

While the perception is that Congress wins elections due to DMK’s ground presence, state unit leaders point to regions where DMK has to be carried on Congress’s shoulders without recognition or credit for its efforts.

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