OPINION: Maldives in China’s orbit a failure of Indian diplomacy

Some in Maldives took Modi’s comments as a deliberate promotion of Lakshadweep at the expense of Maldives, whose economy depends heavily on tourism.

“What a clown,” Mariyam Shiuna, a deputy minister in the Maldives’ government, wrote on X as Modi wore a lifejacket while preparing to scuba dive. She then accused Modi of being a “puppet of Israel”. Two more of her colleagues chimed in with racial taunts. All three have since been suspended from the government, and their posts have been deleted.

The “puppet” was a reference to Modi’s post on X condemning Hamas and expressing solidarity with Israel for the unprovoked 7 October, 2023, attacks that Hamas carried out last year.

With the Embassy of Israel stepping in by posting “alluring” photographs of Lakshadweep and expressing readiness to contribute to the development of the islands, fears grew of a bilateral issue assuming a multilateral hue.

Incidentally, tiny Maldives, with a population of little more than half a million (5.2 lakhs), is among more than 60 countries, along with Pakistan and Bangladesh, that supported South Africa’s case of genocide brought against Israel in the International Court of Justice at The Hague.

Also read: Promoting Lakshadweep in retaliation to anti-Modi remarks

The Maldives called out over insulting remarks

The Ministry of External Affairs summoned the Maldivian envoy soon after the junior ministers in the Muizzu government posted insulting remarks against the Indian prime minister. Outraged Indians were all over social media, including habitual Modiphiles from Bollywood, urging fellow citizens to boycott the Maldives and choose Indian locations for their vacations.

While the controversy was raging, Muizzu was on a scheduled visit to Beijing, where he met with Xi Jinping and signed several bilateral agreements. Muizzu had already slighted New Delhi as traditionally new Maldivian presidents first visit India before venturing to other countries. His first state visit was to Türkiye.

It was little surprise that he, known for his pro-Beijing stance, chose China for his second state visit. Muizzu is yet to visit New Delhi although he and Modi met on the sidelines of COP 28 in Dubai last month.

Before Covid, the Chinese were the top tourists visiting the island nation, followed by Indians and Russians. “China was our number one market pre-Covid, and it is my request that we intensify efforts for China to regain this position,” Muizzu said during his visit to Beijing. On his part, Xi said China-Maldives relations are facing “a historic opportunity to carry forward the past and forge ahead into the future”.

With the upswing in relations with Maldives and Sri Lanka to cosying up to the Dragon, Beijing seems to have two Indian Ocean island nations in its orbit, which should be a worrying development for India. It is believed that Muizzu has agreed to let Chinese research ships operate in Maldivian waters after a recent ban by Sri Lanka following concerns expressed by India.

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China loses no time in wooing Muizzu

The joint statement at the end of Muizzu’s visit was another stick for China to beat India. It read: “China firmly supports the Maldives in upholding its national sovereignty, independence and national dignity, respects and supports the Maldives.”

The two sides also signed the Action Plan for Building a China-Maldives Comprehensive Strategic Cooperative Partnership (2024-2028). Other agreements covered the Belt and Road cooperation, economic and technical cooperation, blue and digital economy, green development, and infrastructure construction.

Although Maldives has the richest per capita income in South Asia, it is also beset by many problems, including massive corruption and the threat of Salafi-jihadism. As one of the lowest-lying areas on earth, the climate crisis poses an existential threat to this magnificent island nation.

Like some other countries around South Asia, Maldives has been caught between the great-power rivalry between India and China for over a decade now. Abdulla Yameen’s government (2013 to 2018) had been pro-China, while the successor government led by Ibrahim Mohamed Solih was pro-India until Muizzu’s arrival.

The 2023 presidential elections were viewed solely as a proxy battle between India and China, hence Muizzu’s “India Out” slogan demanding the withdrawal of some 80 Indian military personnel who operate aircraft donated by India for disaster relief and medical evacuation.

Muizzu’s five-day trip to China further emboldened him as he said on his return to Male that Maldives may be a small nation, but that does not allow others to “bully” the country. He also reminded that his country is “not in anyone’s backyard” and that the Indian Ocean “does not belong to one particular country”, apparently alluding to India.

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Muscular policy vs muscular ultimatum

Latest reports suggest that Maldives has asked India to withdraw its military personnel by 15 March. Whether New Delhi will comply with the deadline or not is anybody’s guess, but the Maldives issuing an ultimatum of sorts to India is in itself an embarrassment to Modi, who keeps flaunting a muscular foreign policy and gives India the moniker of Vishwaguru.

The fact, however, is that a strategically important country in our neighbourhood, which was historically an ally, has moved into China’s orbit, strengthening Beijing’s “string of pearls” policy. Besides, if fake Bollywood nationalists have their way and their “boycott Maldives” campaign succeeds, it would cede further economic influence to China into our immediate neighbourhood.

Nirupama Rao, a former senior Indian diplomat, feels New Delhi should have stepped in to reassure Male amid calls for an economic boycott on social media. “This is where we need Indian government spokesmen to step in and course-correct, keeping larger and crucial security and strategic interests in mind. Maldives is NOT our Cuba,” she wrote on X.

For now, India seems to be caught in a Catcch-22 situation. And coming as the national elections loom large, this diplomatic disaster involving a neighbouring country doesn’t augur well for Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party.

(Views are personal)