What kind of politics could unfold if the INDIA comes to power with an alliance looser than that of the Janata Party of 1977?
The new Parliament building. (Creative Commons)
That Narendra Modi’s third term would bring disaster to the idea and existence of the Indian Republic is a common consensus among people who are deeply and genuinely concerned about the country’s future.
The not-so-hidden agenda of the Sangh Parivar is to end the Constitution of India after coming to power for the third time in 2024.
The Sangh’s malicious intentions, if the BJP wins in 2024, extend to denying economic citizenship to the poor and political citizenship to Muslims or making them refugees sans fundamental rights, enforcement of CAA, NPR/NRC, Love Jihad Acts, imposition of Hindu Civil Code, meat ban, etc., along with restriction of religious freedom, denial of socio-economic rights, restoration of social stratification instead of equality in opportunity and status, slavery instead of fraternity, duty instead of rights, officially erasing India’s semi-federal and semi-republican nature — in essence the establishment of a Brahminical-capitalist empire.
It aims to declare India an ethnic Hindu republic in 2025 when the RSS will mark its centenary. Consolidating the necessary social and political consensus is also integral to this 2024 election plan.
Hence, the 2024 Lok Sabha election is a crucial battle for India’s survival as a republic. Thus, it is natural for those hoping for India to win wanting the BJP to lose.
But will the BJP lose just by so wishing?
Do the Congress and other parties have the will or ability to defeat the BJP?
Most importantly, do the majority voters feel that the unapproachable opposition parties and unrealisable constitutional aspirations are more important than the BJP which approaches them regularly?
In the last thirty years, this ideology of Sangh has been taking deep roots in the people of the country. One example is the 2019 Lok Sabha elections which was fought on an exclusively divisive agenda of Hindu nation, strong leadership and Muslim hatred. It is true that by that time, the country’s courts, election commission and other institutions were already ‘Modified’.
In most state legislature elections since then, the BJP’s vote share has continued to rise compared to the previous ten years. Leave alone North India, despite the electoral loss in Karnataka, its vote share has not been affected there. Even though Congress won in Telangana, BJP’s vote share doubled. Despite not winning seats in Tamil Nadu and Kerala, it is gaining political legitimacy and increasing its vote share.
In the recent elections in four states in North India, the BJP’s vote share among Dalits, OBCs, and Adivasis increased by 3-10 percent. The only reason Congress could retain a respectable vote share in those states is the increase in Muslim vote share by 25-40 percent.
Corporate finance, corporate media collusion, and the abuse of constitutional institutions have all played a role in BJP victories. However, the BJP has also used all these to create communal polarization in society as its foundation. Unless this foundation is changed, Moditva’s defeat in elections might remain a daydream.
Neither the Congress nor other opposition parties seem to possess the intention or the required program to politically and ideologically challenge the BJP, which has been winning states and communities one by one, year after year.
Between 1984 and 2019, Congress vote share has declined from 49.2 percent to 19 pecent while the BJP has increased its vote share from seven to 37 percent.
In the same period, senior Congress leaders joined the BJP overnight—a Chavan in Maharashtra yesterday and a Rathwa in Gujarat today. Many of the BJP’s chief ministers and Union ministers who today attack the Constitution and shatter India’s social fabric were previously senior Congress leaders.
According to a study by Ashoka University’s “Trivedi Center for Political Data”, more than 700 of the BJP’s estimated 1,200 MLAs in India’s 30 legislative assemblies today are migrants from other parties. Mainly from Congress! The cross-voting in the recent Rajya Sabha elections by opposition parties favouring BJP candidates is another small and recent example of political collusion.
Most of the other non-BJP parties, such as AAP, BSP, SP, JDU, JDS, etc., have also become willing players in competitive Hindutva, mimicking BJP slogans and programs, thereby strengthening and legitimising the hegemony of Hindutva in the body polity.
On the other hand, the TMCs’ feudal raj in West Bengal, as reflected in the Sandheshkhali incident, would only make the communal BJP a preferable option for the electorate. Feudal raj is a kin of Hindutva, not its enemy!
The INDIA bloc has raised hopes that the unity of the opposition parties against a common enemy could crystallize this time and defeat the BJP like dictator Indira Gandhi was defeated in 1977.
But then, the “hollowness of unity of opposition” was revealed within two and a half years. The Janata government fell because of the lust for power and the irreconcilability of parties with varying ideological bases against one another.
Later, in the elections held in 1980, Indira Gandhi made stability and strong leadership as her electoral plank which convinced the people who were fed up with the power-hungry squabble of the ‘alternative’. She returned to power with a landslide victory with 42.6% votes and 353 seats.
Today, the same situation is repeating itself. Moreover, there seem to be fewer common goals than the opposition parties in 1977.
Thus, the following are the possibilities in the upcoming elections:
Possibility #1: Modi retains power for a third term, with the BJP getting the same majority or slightly more. This is the biggest danger that India can beget.
Possibility #2: NDA gets majority without BJP getting an independent majority. There is no risk reduction since the BJP remains the core and indispensable.
Possibility #3: NDA’s majority is reduced and MPs from other opposition parties are bought for a price, or BJP splits the opposition parties and forms the government.
Possibility #4: The NDA and BJP may end up with 200-220 seats, much less than the 272 required to form the government. And the INDIA bloc forms the government. Even though this would be least probable in the current situation, it seems to be the wish of all the well-meaning people who think the BJP should lose.
But can it reduce the risk to India? What kind of politics could unfold if INDIA comes to power with an alliance looser than that of the Janata Party of 1977? If the INDIA alliance, without clear unity or any political uniformity even before the elections, comes to power, would the constituents sacrifice their vested interests and back the government to keep the BJP away?
The key answer lies in the tragic fact that neither the opposition parties nor the Congress have such a mortal antagonism with Sanghi fascism.
The BJP and Modi enjoy corporate consensus both within the country and abroad. The corporate media will also constantly try to topple the government with internal and external support. Any pretentious actions to undo the damage the BJP has done to the Constitution will be portrayed as treasonous actions and create anarchy in the country.
Thus, there is a high possibility of destabilizing or overthrowing the INDIA bloc, whose narrow social base is not deep-rooted. Hence, these parties do not have the roots to defeat such sabotage through popular support. It is, therefore, unlikely that the INDIA bloc will last in office for more than a year. Even in power, there is little chance of going against the Hindutva agenda.
This risk, then, is greater than the first three risks.
If the INDIA bloc collapses within a year or two and the BJP comes to power in the next election under the stable-government-and-Hindu-government plank, it might be difficult for the opposition parties to disturb it for the next decade or two.
Thus, in whatever way you look at it, neither electoral politics nor the opposition parties seem likely to remove the fascist danger facing India.
No doubt, the BJP and its Fascist politics are the principal enemy of the Indian people. But crucial question is whether the opposition parties, which are not antagonistic to political-ideology of Hindutva, people’s friends? The opposition parties seem to have only electoral animosity and not political antagonism. What they have is tactical adversity in the electoral arena.
Still, it is also true that defeating BJP electorally is a necessary step towards defeating it politically. Hence, one might inevitably vote for the opposition in 2024.
But one may have to do this with the complete knowledge that the Sanghi Fascism will not be defeated with this and the opposition parties cannot save the country from the fascist menace.
Only with a powerful anti-fascist people’s mobilisation on a strong ideological platform of annihilation of class, caste and patriarchy shall fascism be defeated.
Thus, defeating Modi and Hindutva in the minds of the people is the necessary first step to defeat the looming threat of a comprehensive fascist onslaught. It might not happen overnight and requires consistent, committed, courageous grassroots work for at least a decade or two.
After all, Sanghi Fascists have been doing this for over a century now.
Other options are either daydreams or illusions of the comfort zone.
(The writer is an activist and columnist based in Bengaluru. Views are personal.)
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