Published Jun 01, 2026 | 1:10 PM ⚊ Updated Jun 01, 2026 | 1:58 PM
BJP and JD(S) to rethink strategies in Karnataka
Synopsis: The Congress’s elevation of DK Shivakumar as Karnataka’s chief minister has altered the state’s political dynamics. With Shivakumar belonging to the Vokkaliga community, his rise has prompted both the BJP and the JD(S) to focus on retaining their Vokkaliga support base. Vokkaligas and Lingayats are regarded as Karnataka’s politically, socially and economically dominant communities, and members of these two groups have occupied the chief minister’s post more often than any other community.
The elevation of DK Shivakumar, replacing Siddaramaiah as chief minister of Karnataka, may have been a smooth transition for Congress, but it is also creating ripples within the Opposition parties, BJP and JD(S). In Karnataka, the BJP and JD(S) are in alliance under the NDA and are the joint Opposition.
In Shivakumar’s elevation, the BJP sees a threat as well as an opportunity. The leader of the Opposition (LoP) in the Karnataka Assembly, BJP’s R Ashoka, belongs to the Vokkaliga community, just like chief minister-designate Shivakumar.
The BJP’s decision to make him LoP in the state Assembly was a means to balance community representation, as BY Vijayendra, son of Lingayat strongman BS Yediyurappa, was made the party’s state unit president.
Now, the BJP will have to rethink these equations as it sees the potential to woo Backward Classes and the Dalit vote bloc who have been “hurt” by the dethroning of Siddaramaiah.
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Shivakumar’s elevation has also led to a push for a change in the BJP’s organisational leadership in Karnataka. Last week, the saffron party had replaced its unit presidents in three states. Discussions on changing BY Vijayendra have also been raging for months.
However, in a clear “wait and watch” approach, the BJP has not yet made any changes in Karnataka. “There should be a change. Perhaps Lingayats can be accommodated at the national level or the Union Cabinet so that OBC faces can lead the party in Karnataka,” pointed out a senior office bearer of the BJP Karnataka unit.
BJP’s prominent Vokkaliga face, former deputy chief minister Dr CN Ashwath Narayana, said that the caste equation may also need a rethink.
“The CM may have changed, but as the Opposition, our question is whether the administration would change. A man like DK Shivakumar can only be countered by a strong, aggressive Opposition,” he said.
When asked if the BJP would be wooing backwards-class communities to target Congress’ AHINDA vote bank, he said, “BJP has never claimed to be a one-community party. We focus on bringing all communities together. Now, there is an opportunity to work further on it.”
For Vokkaliga leaders like him, the competition is now stiff within the community, but a cross-sectional appeal and issue-based approach with an ideological push would most likely evoke an electoral response.
Meanwhile, with the 2028 Assembly elections in mind, the party’s central leadership is looking to mainstream fresher faces, make cross-community outreach and double down on ideological push. Observers have already visited Karnataka and gathered inputs to that effect.
“Young leadership has to emerge. Outreach for small communities has to be reset. Under our previous regime, the internal reservation initiative was misunderstood, and lots of communities split. We have realised the gap and will work towards bringing them back. We will also highlight the anti-incumbency against the Congress government,” said Sunil Kumar, MLA from Karkala and BJP Karnataka General Secretary.
It may be recalled that the Basavaraj Bommai government’s internal reservation implementation had drawn violent protests from the Banjara and Bhovi communities.
For its ideological push coupled with young leadership pitch, the BJP leadership is closely looking at leaders like Arvind Bellad and Mahesh Tenginkai, who can also balance the Lingayat and regional representation if Vijayendra is indeed replaced as the BJP state chief.
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With former prime minister HD Deve Gowda retiring from the Rajya Sabha and the BJP set to elect Sumalatha Ambareesh as the NDA’s nominee, JD(S) representation at the national level is now limited to HD Kumaraswamy in the Union Cabinet.
Repeated electoral patterns reveal that JD(S) is entirely dependent on Kumaraswamy for its poll prospects — big or small. His son and JD(S) Youth Wing President Nikhil Kumaraswamy’s consecutive electoral losses show that the party lacks anyone else to shoulder the task. With the rise of another Vokkaliga leader, Kumaraswamy’s job has become more difficult.
Shivakumar — a Vokkaliga leader from Kanakapura — taking charge as chief minister of Karnataka decimated JD(S)’s poll pitch that only it can give the Vokkaliga community a chief minister in the current political scenario of Karnataka. The last time that the Congress had a Vokkaliga chief minister was when SM Krishna was at the helm of affairs, from 1999 to 2004.
Vokkaligas and Lingayats are seen as politically, socially and economically dominant communities in Karnataka, and have had the highest number of chief ministers compared to other communities.
Since its inception, JD(S) has established itself as a Vokkaliga party, primarily centred on the HD Deve Gowda family. On the family front, JD(S)’ image took a massive hit following allegations of serial sexual assault against former MP and Deve Gowda’s grandson Prajwal Revanna and his father HD Revanna.
Prajwal’s conviction for rape has subsequently dented the party’s credibility.
Yet, Kumaraswamy’s personal popularity helps the party stay afloat. “The Vokkaliga community wholeheartedly supports only HD Kumaraswamy in the state. None of the issues (referring to Prajwal’s conviction) have dented his popularity. He, as chief minister, has done a lot for the people of Karnataka and remains the tallest leader in the community,” said a close aide of Kumaraswamy. Party leaders point to Kumaraswamy’s election victory, despite charges against Prajwal Revanna, as proof of his unbesmirched popularity.
However, even those part of JD(S)’s strategy team agree that Shivakumar’s elevation to the chief minister’s post creates an opportunity for him to go to the community a victor already.
Shivakumar is often derided for being unable to ensure the poll victory of his brother DK Suresh in the Bengaluru Rural Lok Sabha seat in 2024, where Vokkaligas are a dominant force. It is cited as an example of his inability to emerge as a community leader. The same, however, isn’t said of Kumaraswamy, although his son has faced defeats in three consecutive elections.
For both BJP and JD(S), Shivakumar’s elevation has been a change in dynamics that requires reassessment. Congress’ radical decision has also forced its rivals to respond in kind; even if that means the JD(S) sacrificing Kumaraswamy’s Union Cabinet berth to focus on state politics or the BJP reorganising its state leadership.
(Edited by Muhammed Fazil.)
