The 2025 election marks a sharp departure from 2020’s nail-biter. Back then, Chirag Paswan’s LJP fought solo, splitting votes. Now, integrated into the NDA, it adds muscle. The alliance looks cohesive, disciplined, and formidable.
Published Nov 11, 2025 | 6:10 PM ⚊ Updated Nov 11, 2025 | 8:01 PM
Nitish Kumar. (X)
Synopsis: Nationally, Bihar’s outcome carries weight. With the BJP lacking a full majority at the Center, allies like JD(U) and TDP are indispensable. A strong showing in Bihar reinforces Nitish Kumar’s stature and the NDA’s stability. The “NIMO” formula—Nitish plus Modi—has been the alliance’s rallying cry. Modi’s magnetic pull on the national stage, combined with Nitish’s grassroots credibility, created a synergy that no opposition leader could match. BJP stalwarts campaigned relentlessly, aware that Bihar was not just a state election but a referendum on coalition resilience.
The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is likely to win resoundingly in the Bihar Assembly elections, riding on a wave of strategic welfare, unshakeable leadership synergy, and an unbreakable bond with the women of Bihar, according to the exit poll conducted by People’s Pulse Research Organisation.
People’s Pulse projects the NDA to secure around 46.2 percent of the vote share, leaving the opposition Mahagathbandhan trailing at 37.9 percent—a gap of nearly 8.3 percentage points. The newly minted Jan Suraj Party, led by political strategist-turned-politician Prashant Kishor, manages a respectable 9.7 percent, while the rest scatter among smaller players at 6.2 percent.
With a margin of error of plus or minus three percent, the trajectory remains unmistakably clear: the NDA is on course to cross the magic figure of 122 in the 243-member assembly, potentially bagging between 133 and 159 seats.
Within the alliance, the seat distribution reflects a balanced partnership. The BJP is expected to lead with 63 to 70 seats, followed closely by JD(U) with 55 to 62. Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) is slated for 12 to 17, while smaller allies like Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) and Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM) are projected to contribute 2 to 5 and 1 to 4 seats, respectively.
On the other side, the Mahagathbandhan struggles to consolidate. The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) may still emerge as the single-largest opposition party with 62 to 69 seats, but the Congress is likely to limp to 9 to 18, and CPI(ML) to a modest 4 to 9. The Jan Suraj Party, despite its vote share, is unlikely to convert more than 0 to 5 seats, while fringe players like AIMIM, CPI(M), VIP, and CPI hover between zero and a handful.
Party-wise vote shares paint a granular picture of Bihar’s fractured yet fiercely contested polity. The RJD edges out with 23.3 percent, followed by the BJP at 21.4 and JD(U) at 17.6. Congress trails at 8.7, LJP at 5, and the rest dissolve into the 7.2 percent “others” bucket.
At the heart of this electoral wave stands Nitish Kumar, the 75-year-old veteran whose clean image and welfare legacy have once again proven decisive. When asked who would make the best chief minister, 30 percent of respondents backed Nitish, just two points behind Tejashwi Yadav’s 32 percent. Prashant Kishor and Chirag Paswan tied at 8 percent each, followed by BJP’s Samrat Chaudhary at 6.
Nitish’s endurance is nothing short of remarkable. After 20 years in power, anti-incumbency should have eroded his base. Instead, it has been neutralised—largely by the blessings of Bihar’s women.
Women, in fact, have emerged as the silent architects of this victory. A staggering 66.8 percent of female voters have thrown their weight behind the NDA, compared to a mere 24.8 percent for the Mahagathbandhan. This is no accident. Nitish Kumar has long understood the power of the female electorate. In 2007, he gifted bicycles to schoolgirls, transforming mobility and aspiration. In 2016, he banned liquor, earning the gratitude of households across castes. And now, in 2025, his government transferred ₹10,000 directly into the accounts of one crore 25 lakh women under the Mahila Rozgar Yojana—a bold, costly move that has paid rich political dividends.
This financial empowerment scheme arrived just before the polls, a masterstroke that blunted criticism of fiscal strain and reinforced Nitish’s image as a leader who delivers. Even as sitting MLAs faced accusations of neglect and corruption, the women of Bihar looked past the flaws and rewarded the man who had consistently placed their dignity and security at the center of his agenda.
Caste, as always, remains the undercurrent of Bihar’s politics. The NDA has forged a broad coalition, dominating among the upper castes, Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes, and Extremely Backward Classes. Brahmins, Rajputs, Bhumihars, Kurmis, Kushwahas, Paswans, Chamars, Mallas, Telis, Banias, Kanus, and Nonias—all have tilted decisively toward the alliance. The Mahagathbandhan, by contrast, finds solace primarily among Yadavs, Muslims, and select OBC pockets. Its core base—estimated at 33 percent from these communities—remains solid but insufficient to breach the 40 percent threshold needed for a serious challenge.
The opposition’s campaign revolved around unemployment and migration—issues that resonate deeply in a state where young men leave in droves for work in distant cities. Tejashwi Yadav, once the youthful face of hope in 2020, tried to reignite that spark. But the fire has dimmed. The craze that once surrounded him among the youth has dissipated, siphoned off by Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraj and even the BJP’s development narrative. Unemployment persists, migration continues, but discontent has not coalesced into a unified anti-NDA wave.
Compounding Tejashwi’s challenges is the long shadow of “Jungle Raj.” The lawlessness and Yadav dominance associated with his father Lalu Prasad Yadav’s rule remain etched in the collective memory of Dalits and upper castes. Prime Minister Narendra Modi seized on this, directing sharper barbs at Lalu than at Tejashwi, turning “Jungle Raj” into the NDA’s most potent weapon. While the Mahagathbandhan spoke of jobs and exodus, the NDA countered with stability, progress, and the specter of a chaotic past.
Nationally, Bihar’s outcome carries weight. With the BJP lacking a full majority at the Center, allies like JD(U) and TDP are indispensable. A strong showing in Bihar reinforces Nitish Kumar’s stature and the NDA’s stability. The “NIMO” formula—Nitish plus Modi—has been the alliance’s rallying cry. Modi’s magnetic pull on the national stage, combined with Nitish’s grassroots credibility, created a synergy that no opposition leader could match. BJP stalwarts campaigned relentlessly, aware that Bihar was not just a state election but a referendum on coalition resilience.
Resources, too, tilted the scales. The BJP’s war chest dwarfed its rivals. Its digital blitz alone outspent the combined online efforts of all other parties. Rahul Gandhi’s “Vote Chori” slogan, meant to galvanise, fell flat in Bihar’s fields and towns. Congress, a key Mahagathbandhan partner, failed to inspire. Dalit sympathy existed, but it never translated into votes. In over fifty constituencies decided by margins under 5,000 in 2020, every vote mattered—and the NDA appears to have won the ground war.
The 2025 election marks a sharp departure from 2020’s nail-biter. Back then, Chirag Paswan’s LJP fought solo, splitting votes. Now, integrated into the NDA, it adds muscle. The alliance looks cohesive, disciplined, and formidable. The Mahagathbandhan, by contrast, appears disjointed—strong in pockets, weak in momentum. And then there is Prashant Kishor. His Jan Suraj Party may not win many seats this time, but it has captured the imagination of the youth. By speaking their language—jobs, dignity, change—it has carved out nearly 10 percent of the vote. Seats may elude it now, but the foundation is laid. Bihar’s political future will not be the same.
As the sun sets over Patna on November 11, 2025, the message from the people is clear. After two decades, Nitish Kumar remains Bihar’s lodestar. Backed by Modi’s might, empowered by women’s faith, and fortified by caste coalitions, the NDA has not just survived—it has thrived. The Mahagathbandhan fought hard but could not break the wall. Jan Suraj has arrived, a promise for tomorrow. Bihar has spoken. And in its voice, the nation hears the enduring power of welfare, leadership, and the quiet strength of its women.
