While 48 percent of respondents believe the Congress government has performed better than the previous BJP government, the majority of BJP and JD(S) voters disagree. The Pulse of Karnataka survey comes as the Congress government completes two years in office.
Published May 23, 2025 | 10:11 AM ⚊ Updated May 23, 2025 | 10:47 AM
Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and Deputy Chief Minister DK Shivakumar with Rahul Gandhi.
Synopsis: Despite its ‘Guarantees’, the Congress government in Karnataka is facing massive anti-incumbency, owing to high inflation and delays in the implementation of welfare schemes, says a People’s Pulse survey. According to the survey, the BJP is gaining substantial public support even while people prefer Congress leaders as chief ministerial candidates.
The Karnataka government recently celebrated its two years in office, which served as the launchpad for its sixth welfare initiative: Bhoo Guarantee. However, a survey by People’s Pulse has shown that the Congress government is facing massive anti-incumbency, owing to high inflation and delays and improper implementation of welfare schemes.
Hyderabad-based People’s Pulse Political Research Organisation, in collaboration with Codemo Technologies, conducted the survey, the Pulse of Karnataka, from 17 April to 18 May, engaging 10,481 respondents across rural and urban areas.
The survey evaluates public satisfaction, the government’s progress on its social welfare agenda and key performance metrics. According to the survey, the BJP is gaining substantial public support.
Projected seats.
The survey results predicted that, if the Assembly elections were held now, the BJP would likely secure 51 percent of the vote share, translating to 136–159 seats, while the Congress would garner 40.3 percent, securing 62–82 seats.
The JD(S) is expected to win five percent of the votes, resulting in three to six seats. Since 1985, no ruling party in Karnataka has secured a full majority in subsequent elections, a trend likely to continue based on current projections that show a 10.7 percent vote share advantage over the Congress.
The survey said the Pahalgam terror attack and Operation Sindoor have bolstered BJP support, with around a 1.5 percent increase in voter backing after 10 May, following the ceasefire with Pakistan. It said the BJP’s narrative of strong national security policy has resonated well with Karnataka voters, enhancing its electoral prospects.
However, 48.4 percent of the respondents rated the Congress government’s performance as “good” or “very good” while 32 percent rated it as “poor” or “very poor” and approximately 20 percent described it as “average”.
While 48 percent believe the Congress government has performed better than the previous BJP government, 55.2 percent of the BJP voters and 54.7 percent of JD(S) voters disagree.
In the 2023 Assembly elections, the Congress secured 42.88 percent of the vote share (135 seats), the BJP 36 percent (66 seats), and JD(S) 13.29 percent (19 seats). The current survey indicates a significant reversal, with Congress facing intense anti-incumbency, losing ground to the BJP.
The survey reflected a clear public preference for the BJP, with 55 percent of respondents favouring the BJP to form the next government, while 39.1 percent stood with the Congress, 3.6 percent with JD(S) and 2.3 percent chose others.
However, lending the Congress a glimmer of hope, Siddaramaiah remains the most preferred leader for chief minister, with 29.2 percent of the respondents supporting him, followed by Deputy Chief Minister DK Shivakumar (10.7%). Siddaramaiah’s personal popularity is a key asset for the Congress, despite the party’s declining support.
Meanwhile, JD(S) leader HD Kumaraswamy (7.6%) remains in the third position, followed by former BJP chief minister BS Yediyurappa (5.5%), and Karnataka BJP President BY Vijayendra (5.2%).
The survey said Congress faces internal factionalism, particularly between Siddaramaiah and DK Shivakumar, weakening its electoral prospects and that tit has hindered the party’s ability to counter the BJP effectively.
The survey attributed the lesser popularity of BJP leaders to the struggles with groupism in the saffron party and the lack of a clear chief ministerial candidate. The absence of a prominent BJP leader contrasts with Siddaramaiah’s sustained personal popularity, providing the Congress with a strategic advantage despite its challenges.
Meanwhile, Narendra Modi led as the most preferred prime minister candidate with 59.1 percent of the vote share. Rahul Gandhi followed with 17.3 percent, while Yogi Adityanath secured 10.9 percent. Mallikarjun Kharge received 2.3 percent of the votes and 10.4 percent preferred others.
The survey said that the Congress government’s caste census report elicited varied responses.
While 26.3 percent of the respondents fully trust the report, viewing it as a step toward social equity. 35 percent distrust it, and 16 percent trust it partially, reflecting methodological concerns.
In the 2025-26 budget, the Congress government allocated ₹51,034 crore in the 2025–26 budget for its five guarantee schemes, a cornerstone of its 2023 manifesto.
The Gruha Lakshmi, the free bus travel scheme for women, stands as the most preferred scheme, with 45.4 percent of beneficiaries strongly supporting it, reflecting its popularity.
However, only two percent support Yuva Nidhi, a monthly payment of ₹2,000 to unemployed new graduates, indicating limited impact among youth. The survey showed that 97 percent of voters are aware of the schemes, demonstrating effective outreach.
“Implementation challenges, including beneficiary selection errors and payment delays due to verification issues, have led to public criticism. The partial implementation of farmer loan waivers has further eroded rural support,” the survey report said.
However, the survey said, rising prices of essentials and corruption allegations against the chief minister, ministers, and MLAs have damaged the government’s reputation.
“A 10 percent electricity tariff hike in early 2025 sparked urban protests, exacerbating anti-incumbency among middle-class voters,” it said.
The Pulse of Karnataka reveals a challenging landscape for the Congress government, marked by declining public support, implementation lapses, rising costs, corruption allegations, and internal rifts. The BJP has capitalised on this discontent, gaining traction across rural, urban, and demographic segments. However, Chief Minister Siddaramaiah’s personal popularity remains a key strength, offering the Congress a potential lifeline.
(Edited by Muhammed Fazil.)
