Kerala headed for a drought-like situation after 4 continuous years of heavy rain, landslides, floods

The lack of rain and increasing heat has severely affected power generation and agricultural activities in the state.

ByK A Shaji

Published Aug 20, 2023 | 1:03 PMUpdatedAug 20, 2023 | 1:12 PM

Kuttanad

A little distance away from Kerala’s largest railway junction Shornur, the Bharathapuzha river has been reduced to almost a trickle despite it being the second leg of the Southwest Monsoon.

If the weather patterns were in order, this would have been the time the second-largest river in Kerala started swelling because of heavy rains which lashed the Palakkadan reaches of the Western Ghats.

In Shornur and nearby Ottappalam, drinking water scarcity has already turned into the largest civic issue because of the paucity of water in the river, which fulfils the irrigation and drinking water needs of over a dozen municipalities and 175 village panchayats in the Palakkad, Malappuram, and Thrissur districts.

Unlike in the ​four previous years,​ when heavy monsoon showers increased water availability in the river, pumping from ​Bharathapuzha at Ottappalam, Shoranur, Vaniyamkulam, Ambalapra and Lakkidi​ remained largely affected ​due to the extreme shortage in rainfall.

Also read: Southwest Monsoon plays hide and seek in Kerala

Life and agriculture affected

Delayed monsoon Kerala

A resident of Kalpathy in Palakkad attempts managing the dusts by pouring water on the road. (PS Manoj)

“The climate crisis is now turning extremely severe in Kerala. Contrary to the last four years, when the state witnessed high-intensity rains during the Southwest Monsoon, resulting in many floods and landslides, now there are ominous signs of a fast-approaching drought,” said P Abubacker, president of the Ummini Padasekhara Samithy, a forum of rice growers in the Ummini region of the Palakkad district.

“Palakkad is the traditional rice bowl for the rest of Kerala. We, the farmers here, have almost abandoned paddy’s first crop season cultivation due to the lack of rains and escalating heat levels. Paddy seedlings are wilting, and we have no means to recover from the crisis now,” he added.

Known as the gateway of monsoon in the country, Kerala is now staring at the worst drought in the past few years, having recorded a 44 percent deficit in seasonal rainfall. Reports from across the state indicate the situation is headed for the worse.

In the Udumbanchola taluk in the high ranges of the Idukki district, pepper farmers are also worried. The lack of rains has badly affected the flowering of pepper vines in the region, where the deficit this year has been estimated at 61 percent.

In the absence of rain, pepper vines lack new sprouts. In Kerala, Wayanad and Idukki are the major pepper growing areas, and the farmers feel production would be dismal this time because of the climate change-induced change in rain patterns.

Across the state, insecurity is heavy among the growers of cardamom, ginger, coffee and other cash crops as well.

“The heat ​now feels unprecedented compared with the last 10 years. Cultivation is badly affected as plants are wilting​ under the scorching sun,” said Echome Gopi, a small-scale farmer​ of Kalpetta in the Wayanad district.

​The east-flowing Kabini River remains almost dried up in the Pulpally and Mullankolli panchayats of Wayanad. Kabini is the major feeder of South India’s inter-state river Cauvery.

water

Kerala is now facing an unprecedented kind of worsening climatic situation. Photo: P S Manoj.

​In the low-lying Kuttanad region of the Alappuzha district, the lack of rain poses a major threat to rice cultivation, a situation exacerbated by the high intrusion of saline water from the sea.

​In Kuttanad, the residents are forced to depend on the contaminated water in the surrounding backwater region for their domestic needs. They must wait for government boats to meet the safe drinking water sources demand.

​In the tribal heartland of Attappad, the scarcity of drinking water is acute. Wells and ponds have dried up in the area, where groundwater has been depleted to alarming levels.

In the Eruthempathy, Vadakarapathy, and Kozhinjampara panchayats in Palakkad, residents have to wait for the water-carrying trucks that arrive thrice a week.

“We have had only two-three spells of rain since January. This is the time to sow seeds, but there is no water. We are also going to face a severe drinking water crisis. The agriculture office gave us vegetable seeds for the Onam market, but we could not do anything,” lamented SP Venkatachalam, a tribal farmer from Santhanpara​ in Idukki.

KP Rajappan Nair, another farmer from Pooppara in Idukki, echoed his concerns. “This year, agriculture will be a complete loss due to the unavailability of water. The Poopara area is well known for its agriculture, but this Onam, we will not have any of our products in the market,” Nair said.

Also read: Leveraging lessons learnt from floods, Kerala battles heavy rain

The current weather conditions

​Across the state, the heat level has also started rising due to the absence of rain. On Saturday, the Integrated Rural Technology Centre at Palakkad recorded 32.3 degrees Celsius as the daytime temperature. Normally, it is below 28 in August and September.

​In the four months of Southwest monsoon, two months are already over, and experts say a drought that may spread over at least four months is now on the cards.

This contradicts the earlier forecast of above-normal rainfall issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) for the southern peninsula.

​The scarcity of rains has also evoked larger concerns in the power sector. As per figures available on 20 August, only 36 percent of water remains in the reservoirs managed by the state electricity board.

Malampuzha

The dried-up catchment area of Malampuzha Dam. Photo: K A Shaji

The experts ​at the Kottayam-based Institute of Climate Change Studies (ICCS), which takes stock of the performance of the monsoon, pointed out that ​the remaining days in August ​were unlikely to witness any extreme rainfall events like in the past few years as per the current metrological features.

From 1 June to 16 August, Kerala received only 877.2 mm of rainfall, whereas normal rainfall figures recorded for the Southwest Monsoon in the state are 1,572.1 mm, according to the IMD. This translates to a deficit of more than 44 percent this season.

Rainfall data for the seven days — from 10 to 16 August — illustrate the acute situation. There has been a 94 percent deficit during that period, as the rainfall recorded was a mere 6.5 mm compared to normal rainfall of 109.6 mm.

“When we had good showers during this period, the temperature levels used to be lower. However, this year, the average maximum temperature is higher by 3-4 degrees Celsius,” said IMD Kerala Director K Santhosh.

The El Nino (warming of surface waters) in the Pacific Ocean has weakened the westerly winds, and the cyclone formations in the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal just ahead of the monsoon could have adversely affected monsoon rainfall in Kerala, he explained.

“It is the break monsoon period as the monsoon trough is now located over the Odisha coast. This may move towards the Himalayas, bringing more rain to the North-Northeast region and Nepal and taking the rain away from our region,” Santhosh said.

Whither monsoon? Kerala highland farmers stare at dry paddy fields

The water situation

Idukki, where Kerala’s biggest hydroelectric power project is located, recorded the lowest rainfall up to 16 August this season, with a deficit of 60 percent. The water level is abysmally low at Idukki Reservoir.

“The water level at the Idukki reservoir at present is just 31.13 percent (of capacity) against 80.2 percent during the corresponding time last year,” said​ K Sajeesh, technical assistant to the director for Generation (Civil) under the Kerala Electricity Board Limited (KSEBL).

With no fresh inflow, power generation at the Idukki hydroelectric station would be affected.

“The rainfall forecast for the next two weeks shows a below-normal pattern,”​ said Santhosh. He added that it was ​impossible to predict whether the remaining monsoon period would compensate for the deficit.

In the state’s second-largest power project at Pathanamthitta’s Kakki, the water level​ now is 35.6 percent, way below the 62.42 percent in August last year.

Eruthempathy

Water situation in Eruthempathy in palakkad. Photo: K A Shaji

At Wayanad’s Banasura Sagar reservoir, the third-largest power generation plant in the state, the water level is better at 61 percent. Still, it is well below the 92 percent recorded in August last year.

Drinking water reservoirs in the state are also in a similar state.

Supply to the capital city, Thiruvananthapuram, will be hit if rainfall is deficient during the upcoming Northeast Monsoon.​

At Malampuzha, the largest drinking water storage in Kerala, there is a depletion of 58 percent.

“At present, drinking water is available for the next 100 days at the Peppara Dam. If we do not get Northeast Monsoon rains, things will be difficult,” ​said Soumya S, assistant engineer for dams at the Kerala Water Authority in Thiruvananthapuram.

Many higher-altitude areas in the state already face a drinking water crisis, as the groundwater table has depleted due to the weak monsoon.

“As per our estimation, the groundwater levels in Kerala have also gone down compared to the corresponding period last year,” ​said CP Priju, a senior scientist of hydrology and climatology​ at the Centre for Water Resources Development and Management (CWRDM).

He said a detailed study regarding the depletion of groundwater levels in the state was yet to be carried out.

Kerala is now pinning its hopes on the Northeast Monsoon, which is expected between October and December.

(With PTI inputs)

Also read: Stone quarries aggravate landslides every monsoon in Kerala