In the absence of a unifying narrative, Bihar's voters grapple with persistent grievances and competing promises, setting the stage for a verdict that could redefine the state's political destiny.
Published Sep 19, 2025 | 8:00 AM ⚊ Updated Sep 19, 2025 | 8:00 AM
The ruling National Democratic Alliance and the opposition Mahagathbandhan are locked in a virtual dead heat.
Synopsis: As Bihar heads to the high anticipated assembly elections in October-November, the ruling National Democratic Alliance and the opposition Mahagathbandhan are locked in a virtual dead heat, the NDA leading by only one percentage point, according to a 45-day survey by the People’s Pulse Research Organization. Caste dynamics, ticket allocations, and alliance cohesion emerge as decisive factors, with Extremely Backward Classes (36 percent of voters) and other swing groups holding the potential to tilt the outcome.
As Bihar approaches its pivotal assembly elections in October-November 2025, the state stands at a political precipice, its 243 seats poised to shape not only its own trajectory but also the broader contours of Indian politics.
A comprehensive 45-day mood survey by the People’s Pulse Research Organization, conducted from 1 August to 15 September 2025 across all 38 districts, captures the electorate’s pulse through open-ended dialogues and purposive sampling.
Engaging diverse voices—urban and rural, young and old, across castes and communities—the study reveals a neck-and-neck contest between the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the opposition Mahagathbandhan (India Alliance).
With the NDA leading by a mere 1 percent, the survey underscores a volatile electoral landscape where caste loyalties, ticket strategies and alliance cohesion could tilt the scales.
In the absence of a unifying narrative, Bihar’s voters grapple with persistent grievances and competing promises, setting the stage for a verdict that could redefine the state’s political destiny.
The survey projects the NDA—comprising Janata Dal (United) [JD(U)], Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM), Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) [LJP(RV)], and Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM)—at 41-44 percent vote share, narrowly ahead of the Mahagathbandhan (MGB)—Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Congress, Left parties and Vikasheel Insaan Party (VIP)—at 40-42.5 percent.
Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) commands 6-8 percent, with others at 7.5-9 percent, within a ±3 percent margin of error. This virtual deadlock mirrors the 2020 elections’ slim margins, amplifying the weight of micro-factors: candidate selection, Tejashwi Yadav’s cross-caste outreach, and JSP’s potential to siphon anti-incumbency votes.
Unlike previous elections—2005’s anti-Lalu wave, 2010’s “sushasan” mandate, 2015’s anti-BJP churn, or 2020’s job-driven surge—2025 lacks a cohesive narrative.
Respondents prioritise local concerns—MLA performance, infrastructure deficits—over national flashpoints like SIT probes. Caste remains the bedrock of voter choice, now tinged with communal undercurrents in regions like Mithila and Simanchal. Anti-incumbency against Nitish Kumar’s NDA, fuelled by price rises, unemployment and migration, fragments between MGB and JSP, positioning the latter as a potential kingmaker rather than a victor.
The survey’s methodology—15-20 daily group discussions, validated by political observers and academics—ensures a robust tapestry of insights, grounded in grassroots realities.
Ticket allocation emerges as a pivotal battleground. Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs), comprising 36 percent of voters, signal openness to the MGB if it broadens representation beyond its Muslim-Yadav (MY) core, echoing Akhilesh Yadav’s successful “PDA” (Pichhda, Dalit, Alpsankhyak) strategy in Uttar Pradesh’s 2024 Lok Sabha polls.
However, reducing MY tickets risks rebellion, given Tejashwi’s weaker grip compared to Akhilesh. For the NDA, internal discord—seat-sharing tensions with Chirag Paswan’s LJP(RV) or Jitan Ram Manjhi’s HAM—threatens to erode its slender lead, potentially gifting the MGB an edge.
Voter frustrations run deep, cutting across demographics. Youths decry joblessness as a relentless scourge, women lament inflation’s toll on household budgets, and families bemoan migration’s drain on Bihar’s vitality.
Both state and central governments face scrutiny, yet respondents admit caste affinities will shape their votes, tempering economic critiques. The NDA bears the brunt of anti-incumbency, with EBCs, as non-direct beneficiaries, showing tentative openness to the MGB, signalling a shift in traditional voting patterns.
Law and order divides sharply: NDA supporters invoke fears of a “Jungle Raj” return, tied to Lalu Prasad Yadav’s era, while MGB backers decry rising corruption, commissions and violent crimes.
Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) grapples with perceptions of his age (74) and fatigue, though EBCs, Dalits and women remain loyal. The survey challenges narratives of youth disenchantment, portraying Nitish as a stabilising force—flawed but unmatched—amid a lack of alternatives. Farmers, divided by caste, form no cohesive bloc, further fragmenting rural sentiment.
Women, half the electorate, tilt decisively toward the NDA, particularly through JIVIKA networks numbering millions. They praise Nitish Kumar’s empowerment measures—prohibition, enhanced widow pensions, stipends for para-government workers—cementing his “silent weapon” status.
Youths, vocal on employment and education, concede caste’s pull, granting Nitish a balanced perception: neither hero nor villain, but a guarantor of relative progress.
Bihar’s electoral map is a kaleidoscope of caste dynamics. General castes (15.5 percent) favour BJP-JD(U), with Congress retaining pockets via local leaders.
Brahmins (3 percent) back BJP in Mithila-Tirhut; Rajputs (3.4 percent) align similarly, with RJD-Congress niches; Bhumihars (2.8 percent) reject RJD; Kayasthas (0.6 percent) cleave to BJP. Among OBCs (27 percent), Yadavs (14.2 percent) anchor RJD, though communal sentiments in Mithila and Kosi-Simanchal nudge some toward BJP, especially against Muslim candidates.
Kurmis (2.8 percent) remain Nitish’s bedrock; Kushwahas (4.2 percent) split—south to MGB, north to NDA. Telis, Kanus and OBC Baniyas (7 percent) lean BJP, prioritising caste in Tirhut.
EBCs, the kingmakers at 36 percent, embody volatility. Once Nitish’s forte, they now see BJP inroads in Simanchal via anti-Muslim appeals. Nishad sub-groups—Gangautas, Kewats, Mallahs, Binds—waver: JD(U) core, BJP in Muzaffarpur-Darbhanga, VIP in Champaran. Smaller castes like Nuniyas and Kumhars favour JD(U)-BJP.
Scheduled Castes (19.65 percent) polarise: Chamars (5 percent) bolster MGB via RJD, Congress and CPI(ML); Paswans (5 percent) rally to LJP(RV); Musahars (3 percent) scatter—HAM in Gaya, MGB in Shahabad, JD(U) in Supaul, BJP in Tirhut.
Muslims (17.7 percent) overwhelmingly back MGB, with Congress gaining on RJD; AIMIM cuts marginally in Kishanganj. Scheduled Tribes (1.68 percent) balance between alliances. The Voter Adhikar Yatra, despite its fervour, fails to realign castes, leaving EBCs as the swing vote. JSP’s statewide “mahaul” lacks committed voters, relying on rebels for traction.
Rahul Gandhi’s Yatra, a local-driven spectacle, draws crowds but adds no new caste blocs to MGB, reinforcing old patterns. Tejashwi Yadav’s charisma tantalises beyond Yadavs, but Congress’s organisational fragility and reluctance to cede leadership hamper synergy.
Welfare schemes dominate: NDA’s 125 free electricity units aid 1.67 crore families, slashing rural bills; Mukhya Mantri Mahila Rozgar Yojana offers Rs.10,000 incentives and Rs.2 lakh loans, targeting women; 12 lakh jobs created, 1 crore pledged. RJD counters with 200 units, Rs.2,500 monthly women stipends, 100 percent domicile jobs, Rs.100 exam fees, and ITIs per panchayat.
JSP’s five-point agenda—schools, jobs, Rs.2,000 pensions, women loans—resonates on migration and corruption but struggles to convert sympathy to votes.
BJP (28-29 percent) leverages organisational might, digital campaigns, and women-focused schemes, boosting turnout by 5 percent since 2020. Yet, reliance on Nitish for EBCs and lack of a local CM face expose risks—core voters admire Modi, distrust Nitish, favour Chirag.
RJD (30-31 percent) banks on MY-Kushwaha-Dalit cores, Yatra-amplified, but dynastic baggage and EBC skepticism limit reach; Congress’s Muslim gains and Yadav communalism threaten.
JD(U)’s “optionlessness” sustains Nitish Kumar—EBC-Dalit-women-Kurmi loyalty—despite health concerns. Congress umbrellas castes but falters without RJD scaffolding, lacking OBC depth. LJP(RV) rides Paswan charisma (5-6 percent), 2024 sweep, but NDA frictions risk splits.
VIP softens MGB in Nishad pockets; HAM-RLM add symbolic heft; Lefts edge via CPI(ML); AIMIM (1-3 seats) revives via Waqf but shrinks post-Yatra. JSP disrupts without seats, banking on youth.
As polling nears, turnout and last-mile strategies will decide. NDA needs unity to hold; MGB, PDA expansion; JSP, vote conversion.
Schemes demand delivery, castes test merit. Bihar’s ballot, a mirror of its struggles—welfare versus woes, loyalty versus aspiration—poises 243 seats as a crucible for continuity, resurgence, or disruption, democracy’s delicate dance in full view.
(Edited by Dese Gowda)
