Published Aug 06, 2026 | 11:07 AM ⚊ Updated Aug 06, 2026 | 11:07 AM
AAP is projected to secure 58 to 63 seats in the 117-member Assembly, placing it close to or above the majority mark.
Synopsis: Unlike previous elections characterised by powerful statewide waves, the 2027 Assembly election is expected to be decided through hundreds of closely fought local contests. While AAP enjoys a slight advantage, the eventual outcome will largely depend on candidate selection, campaign execution, organisational strength and the ability of political parties to respond effectively to regional aspirations and public expectations during the months ahead.
Punjab appears to be heading towards one of its most closely contested Assembly elections in recent history, with the ruling Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) retaining a narrow advantage over its rivals, according to the latest Mood Survey conducted by People’s Pulse Research Organization.
The field study, conducted across all 117 Assembly constituencies, indicated that while the AAP remains the frontrunner, the electoral battle is expected to be significantly more competitive than the 2022 Assembly elections.
According to the survey, AAP is projected to secure 58 to 63 seats in the 117-member Assembly, placing it close to or above the majority mark. The Indian National Congress is projected to emerge as the principal opposition with 36 to 43 seats, while Waris Punjab De (WPD) could make a notable electoral debut by winning 4 to 7 seats.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is expected to secure 2 to 6 seats, and the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) is projected to win 2 to 4 seats, with Independents and others accounting for the remaining seats.
The projected vote share reflects a competitive electoral landscape. The survey estimated AAP at 37 per cent, Congress at 31 per cent, Waris Punjab De at 14 per cent, BJP at 8 per cent, and Shiromani Akali Dal at 6 per cent. and others at around 4 per cent.
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These projections are based on the assumption that all major political parties contest the election independently without entering into pre-poll alliances. The survey suggested that Punjab has transitioned from the wave election witnessed in 2022 to a performance-based electoral contest.
Unlike the previous election, where anti-incumbency against traditional political parties created a decisive mandate for AAP, voters are now evaluating the government primarily on governance, delivery of welfare schemes, employment generation, agricultural policies, fiscal management, law and order, and the credibility of political leadership.
Chief Minister Bhagwant Singh Mann continues to remain the most preferred leader in Punjab. Around 40 per cent of respondents favoured him as the preferred chief minister, placing him well ahead of former chief minister Charanjit Singh Channi, who secured 33 per cent support.
Amritpal Singh followed with 13 per cent, while other leaders received comparatively lower levels of public preference.
One of the most significant findings of the survey is the distinction voters are making between the popularity of Chief Minister Mann and that of several sitting AAP legislators. While there is limited anti-incumbency against the chief minister personally, dissatisfaction with a considerable number of AAP MLAs is evident across many constituencies.
The survey indicated that the ruling party’s electoral prospects could improve if it replaces a substantial number of sitting legislators before the elections, as local anti-incumbency rather than statewide dissatisfaction appears to be the dominant factor influencing voter behaviour.
The Congress continues to retain a strong grassroots organisational presence across large parts of Punjab and remains the principal challenger to the ruling party. The survey suggests that former chief minister Channi currently enjoys the highest popularity within the Congress.
People’s Pulse felt that if the Congress projects Channi as its chief ministerial candidate and successfully addresses internal factionalism while ensuring effective candidate selection, it could significantly narrow the gap with AAP in several constituencies.
The survey also highlighted a continuing decline in the political influence of the Shiromani Akali Dal. A significant section of the traditional Panthic vote appears to be shifting towards the emerging Waris Punjab De, particularly among younger Sikh voters in border districts such as Amritsar, Gurdaspur and Tarn Taran.
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The growing visibility of Waris Punjab De, combined with its messaging on issues such as drug abuse and Sikh identity, has enabled the organisation to emerge as an important political factor in selected regions of the state. While its statewide influence remains limited, it is expected to affect electoral outcomes in several closely contested constituencies by altering traditional vote patterns.
The BJP continues to pursue a long-term organisational expansion strategy in Punjab. According to the survey, the party’s electoral growth remains largely concentrated in urban constituencies, particularly in cities such as Ludhiana, Jalandhar, Amritsar, Hoshiarpur, Patiala and SAS Nagar.
While the BJP has improved its organisational presence among urban Hindu voters, traders, and educated youth, rebuilding trust among Sikh farming communities remains its biggest challenge. Consequently, the survey did not indicate any dramatic improvement in the BJP’s overall electoral prospects, although modest gains in selected urban constituencies remain possible.
An important political development examined during the survey was the recent defection of senior AAP leaders, including Rajya Sabha MP Raghav Chadha and several other MPs. Field interactions indicated that these defections have generated considerable political discussion, particularly in urban Punjab, where many voters view them as signs of organisational instability within AAP.
However, the survey concluded that the immediate electoral impact of these defections remains limited. While the developments may have slightly improved the BJP’s perception among urban voters and boosted worker morale, they have not yet translated into a substantial shift in voter preferences, particularly in rural Punjab where agriculture, employment, governance and local candidates continue to dominate electoral considerations.
The survey further highlighted the continuing influence of religious and social institutions, particularly Deras, in Punjab’s electoral politics. Organisations such as Dera Sacha Sauda, Radha Soami Satsang Beas, Dera Sach Khand Ballan, Namdhari and Nirankari continue to exercise influence across nearly half of Punjab’s Assembly constituencies, particularly in the Malwa and Doaba regions.
While People’s Pulse researchers found little evidence that Deras would issue direct political instructions, their social influence and perceived proximity to political parties are expected to remain important in closely contested seats.
Among all parties, the BJP is seen as potentially benefiting the most from improved engagement with selected Dera networks. However, this advantage alone is unlikely to produce a major statewide electoral shift.
Overall, the People’s Pulse Mood Survey concluded that Punjab is entering an election defined less by ideology and more by governance performance, leadership credibility, candidate selection and constituency-level issues.
Unlike previous elections characterised by powerful statewide waves, the 2027 Assembly election is expected to be decided through hundreds of closely fought local contests. While AAP enjoys a slight advantage, the eventual outcome will largely depend on candidate selection, campaign execution, organisational strength and the ability of political parties to respond effectively to regional aspirations and public expectations during the months ahead.
(The People’s Pulse Research Organization, under the leadership of its Director Dr Rajan Pandey, undertook a comprehensive 45-day field-based Mood Survey across Punjab from 20 June to 31 July 2026. A dedicated research team led by Dr Pandey, supported by senior researcher Amith Ohlan and six survey teams comprising 24 field investigators, covered all 117 Assembly constituencies across the Malwa, Majha and Doaba regions. The study collected 8,000 samples using a systematic stratified random sampling model through extensive face-to-face interviews and structured interactions with respondents representing different communities, occupations, age groups and socio-economic backgrounds. The research was designed to capture the evolving political mood, governance perceptions and electoral preferences of voters ahead of the 2027 Punjab Assembly elections).
