Why Chandrababu Naidu arrest may not fuel TDP resurgence in Telangana

The leadership vacuum is clear in the TDP. Naidu’s son Nara Lokesh has not been able to rise to the occasion. Further, Naidu had not groomed a second-rung leadership in the party, and there is no one now to plan the party’s future course of action as the elections close in.

In Telangana, though the TDP has already been written off after the bifurcation of the state, Naidu’s recent arrest kindled hopes among party cadres in about 25-30 Assembly segments. But so far, contrary to expectations, the sympathy wave has not risen to the level that would make the Andhra voters opt for the TDP.

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Diminished fortunes

Though there were protests by IT employees against his arrest — Naidu is considered the poster boy of the IT revolution in the erstwhile Andhra Pradesh — most of them may not have an affinity towards the TDP, since many of them are not from Andhra.

Political commentator and senior journalist Bhandaru Srinivasa Rao said the TDP’s fate in Telangana reminds one of the Congress in Tamil Nadu.

“The Congress leaders of the bygone era had built a huge building for their party in Chennai but there was no leader who could galvanize people. In Telangana, too, the TDP has a wonderful office building but there is no leader to inspire the people,” Rao said.

Though there are Kammas in Hyderabad and in some districts in Telangana including Khammam, it is not very clear if they would vote for the TDP.

“Andhraites settled in Telangana, deep down in their hearts, harbour feelings against KCR for dividing the state, and yet they supported him in the 2018 elections because it was a party that was set to capture power for the second term. But this time, as the Congress seems to be on the rise, the anti-KCR Andhra voters might prefer the Congress to TDP,” said political analyst and academician Dr Dogiparthy Subrahmanyam from Guntur.

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Congress may gain

He said that as most of the former TDP leaders and cadre are now in the Congress, the Andhra voters might shift their loyalty to the grand old party.

“For instance, A Revanth Reddy who is heading Telangana Congress, is originally from the TDP. Even leaders like Thumala Nageswara Rao are now in the Congress, making easier the Andhra voters’ choice in favour of the Congress,” he said.

There is an increasing public perception among the people that unless parties have leaders who can inspire people, they remain non-starters. As far as the TDP is concerned, there is no such leader who can make Andhra voters feel secure if they rally behind him.

“When Chandrababu Naidu held a public meeting in Khammam on 21 December, 2022, the turnout was huge. There was speculation that all the Kamma leaders in other parties would switch to the TDP. But what happened finally? No one joined the TDP,” one political commentator in Hyderabad said.

The rally was touted as the beginning of the rise of the TDP in Telangana. The turnout of about one lakh people for the meeting from erstwhile Khammam and some areas in Nalgonda and Warangal districts allowed the first stirrings of hope in the hearts of the TDP workers. Thereafter, the party remained a dud.

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The business of politics

He said that a leader choosing a party is like investing in a business. In the final analysis, all politicians treat politics as business.

“No businessman would invest in a sector that is going to remain a dud,” he said, arguing that mere affection towards a leader is not enough to join the party but what counts is whether the party could rise to the the level of challenging the ruling dispensation.

“In Telangana, people rejected Chandrababu Naidu in 2014 itself. He is an outsider to them now. As Naidu fell, his supporters, though they sympathised with him, shifted to the BRS. For them, it pays to be on the side of the ruling party,” he said.

The Andhra Reddys in Telangana will not vote for Naidu due to the full-blown war with the Kammas in Andhra Pradesh. They may vote for KCR as they believe he is a friend of Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister and YSRCP supremo Jagan Mohan Reddy, or may support the Congress if they still harbour hard feelings against KCR for the division of the state.

Though the Backward Classes may have a soft corner for the TDP, they might shy away from voting for a party with low prospects.