South First-Peoples Pulse Exit Poll gives the Congress a clear majority in Telangana

While the pre-poll survey gave it an edge, the South First-Peoples Pulse Exit Poll predicts 62 to 72 seats to the Congress in Telangana.

BySouth First Desk

Published Nov 30, 2023 | 6:45 PMUpdated Nov 30, 2023 | 6:52 PM

South First-Peoples Pulse Exit Poll gives the Congress a clear majority in Telangana

It’s a Congress wave in Telangana, predicts the South FirstPeoples Pulse Exit Poll.

While the pre-poll survey carried out by Peoples Pulse for South First between 15 and 25 November, immediately after the withdrawal of nominations, had predicted an edge to Congress, the Exit Poll conducted on Thursday — the date of polling — has put the Congress firmly ahead of others in Telangana.

According to the Exit Poll, the Congress is set to form the government in Telangana, replacing the incumbent BRS with a clear majority: The surveys predicts 62 to 72 seats for the Congress in the 119-seat Assembly. Simple majority in Telangana is 60.

The South FirstPeoples Pulse Exit Poll predicts the BRS could win between 35 and 46 seats — almost half the number of seats it had won in the 2018 Assembly election.

The BJP is predicted to win between three and eight seats indicating it may perform better than anticipated. The AIMIM is expected to win six to seven seats, which is par for the course as far as the party is concerned.

Other parties, including independents, are expected to win one or two seats.

The exit poll projections are based on the trends till 3 pm on Thursday. It has a sample size of 5,000.

Peoples Pulse Exit Polls: It’s 2-1 in favour of Congress in MP, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan

Vote share puts Congress ahead

The Exit Poll conducted by Peoples Pulse for South First estimates a 42.7 percent vote share for the Congress, while BRS is predicted to poll only 37.8 percent votes, indicating a huge gap of around 5 percent.

Telangana Exit poll - Seat predictions.

Telangana Exit poll – Projected seats.

Projected range of vote share for BRS stands at 36.5 to 39.5 percent. The projected range for Congress stands at 41.5 to 44.5 percent vote share.

The BJP is projected to mop up much higher vote share than its seven percent from 2018 and poll 13.2 percent votes in the Telangana Assembly elections 2023, with a range of 10.5 to 13.5 percent.

The AIMIM is predicted to pretty much retain its previous vote share of 2.5 percent this election, while others are predicted to poll 3.8 percent votes. The vote share range of AIMIM is predicted to be 0.5 to 2.5.

The South FirstPeoples Pulse Exit Poll for the Telangana Assembly elections shows the Congress is set to see a mammoth gain of 14.3 percent vote share while BRS is seen as losing a damaging 9.1 percent vote share compared to the 2018 Assembly election.

Pre-poll Survey: Prediction of an edge to Congress

BJP gains vote share

Vote share in Telangana elections 2023.

Vote share in Telangana elections 2023.

The BJP, which won only one seat in the 2018 Assembly polls, has moved from strength to strength, fuelled by leaders of the BRS jumping ship and winning it bypolls in the state. The exit poll predicts a 6.2 percent gain for BJP this election.

With anti-incumbency and fatigue against BRS influencing voters, the Exit Poll suggests a shift of BRS votes to both the BJP and the Congress.

The district-wise summary of the South FirstPeoples Pulse Exit Poll shows the Congress leading in 21 out of Telangana’s 33 districts. The BRS is projected to be leading in 11 districts and the BJP in one.

While the BJP is projected to be leading in Nirmal, the BRS is projected to be in the lead for seats in districts like Adilabad, Asifabad, Jagtial, Nizamabad, Sircilla, Karimnagar, Hyderabad, Medchal, Siddipet, Gadwal, and Nagarkurnool. The Congress is predicted to be in the lead in the rest of the districts.