ON THE ROAD: Reading the mood of Dalits, Muslims — will they hurt the BRS?

He was referring to the suicide of a 30-year-old Dalit man — Ramakanth — in Bhoraj of Adilabad, some 147 km away.

When South First visited Ramakanth’s mourning family, it had been three days since his death and his mother was still inconsolable.

“All my life I worked as a farm labourer. He could neither find employment nor start a business and was compelled to be a farm labourer just like me. ‘Of what use am I to anyone?’ he asked me a night before his body was found,” Narasimha Singidi recalled his last conversation with his son.

A purported suicide note by Ramakanth claimed disappointment over not receiving Dalit Bandhu was the reason for his decision, which was blamed on Chief Minister KCR.

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The ire of Dalits and Muslims

Dalit Bandhu is a pain point for almost every person from the community South First met while travelling across poll-bound Telangana. The resentment over barely one out of 20 Dalit families in a village even being eligible to receive Dalit Bandhu is severe. The target of their ire is the K Chandrashekhar Rao government.

“Either everyone should get or none” is a common sentiment across the state.

“Only BRS party workers and supporters get everything,” alleges 34-year-old Malan Bibi of Ibrahimpatnam.

A hijab covering her head, Malan Bibi sells small farm tools from a roadside shack for which she pays a daily rent of ₹10. “I will vote for the Congress this time. Our MLA has done nothing for us. We have no roads in our colony, no drains even. Where is the promised Minority Bandhu? I am tired of applying,” she said.

Muslims constitute close to 13 percent of Telangana’s population and can impact electoral outcomes in at least 40 of the 119 constituencies in the state. Scheduled Castes (SCs) make up almost 17 percent of the state’s population.

Together, the two blocs are a formidable force that can tilt the outcome of the Telangana Assembly elections 2023.

Both the BRS and the Congress — the only two real contenders in the political arena of Telangana — know only too well how important the votes of these two communities are. If the BRS government has introduced community-specific schemes for Dalits and minorities, the Congress has charted out separate declarations for the communities.

Also read: Congress unveils ‘Minority Declaration’ in Telangana

BRS’ Muslim problem

In a state like Karnataka, where the Congress and the BJP are the primary rivals, the consolidation of Muslim votes in favour of the former is easier. Telangana is no Karnataka and KCR’s BRS is not the BJP. Muslims’ votes have always largely been with the BRS in Telangana.

Muslim and SC voting preferences in Telangana.

Leaders of the BRS may vehemently disagree with it in public, but their internal assessments show that the Congress’ narrative that the BJP and the BRS have a tacit understanding is finding resonance in the Muslim community. 

“Unfortunately, that narrative is finding traction and sections of Muslim community voters are shifting to the Congress,” acknowledged a senior leader of the BRS, adding that they didn’t see the same shift among Dalits.

“Dalits have largely been Congress voters, always,” the leader added. By their own admission, BRS leaders see a considerable chunk of vote share from the Muslim community shifting away from them this assembly election. 

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The generation divide

“I don’t think the BRS and the BJP are one and the same, but there are different opinions in the community. Youngsters in our region want to vote for the BRS but elders feel differently and are looking at the Congress,” 66-year-old Mohammed Razak told South First.

Razak runs a faux leather shop in Karimnagar. His nephew, 22-year-old  Mohammed Riyaz, a first-time voter, concurs. Razak, however, is sure that closer to the election the two age groups will reconcile and vote in unison.

“But whether the young influence elders or vice versa is the question,” he smirks. He already knows who will call the shots.

Karimnagar is in the northern part of Telangana but in Jadcherla, in the southern part of the state, the trend is reversed. 

Sixty-four-year-old Mohammed Sultan, who runs a tailor shop, believes KCR deserves a hattrick.

“KCR has given Shaadi Mubarak to our daughters, and salaries to our Imams. He gave us electricity and water. There is no reason for the community not to back him,” he says, even as his 25-year-old apprentice Yousuf disagrees and wants a “change” of governments. 

And then there are voters like Akbar Sheik in Munugode of Nalgonda who is caught between the young and the old.

“My mother gets an old age pension and she will never vote for anyone other than KCR, but my children are dead against the BRS. They are graduates and have no jobs. They don’t trust the BRS to make things better and they are keen on voting for the Congress. I see the logic in both arguments, but what do I do?” he wondered.  

In Mahbubnagar, Mohammed Razak, who owns a small readymade clothes shop, is rather realistic, if not cynical, in his opinion on Muslim political representation.

“The moment a party fields a Muslim candidate, the election will become communally polarised,” he pointed out.

“KCR is hugely popular, but he has been in power for a decade now. Nobody will badmouth KCR or BRS in the community; but if you ask them, they will say that the Congress is a better option now,” he adds much to the dislike of 40-year-old Mujeeb Ahmed, a mechanic who availed Shaadi Mubarak scheme for his daughter’s Nikah.

“I am forever grateful to KCR,” he adds. 

Back in the northern district of Nizamabad, Mohammed Faiaz of Armoor constituency insists KCR is a “nice man” and wants to see the BRS back in power.

Yet, Mohammed Sharief of Jinnaram in Sangareddy is miffed with KCR. A mutton shop owner, he feels ignored and left out. His wife Shahjahan Begum complains of inflation and price rise that is burning a hole in their pockets. “This time, no vote to BRS,” Shahjahan Begum is adamant. 

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The geographical divide

The differing opinions from Karimnagar to Mahbubnagar and Nizamabad to Nalgonda have a pattern. 

Karimnagar and Nizamabad are districts where the BJP has a stronger presence, unlike the southern districts of Nalgonda, and Mahbubnagar. Karimnagar and Nizamabad Lok Sabha seats too are represented by BJP MPs — Bandi Sanjay and Aravind Dharmapuri — both Hindutva hardliners. 

To put it in context, wherever the BJP’s presence is stronger, minorities are inclined to back the BRS as the party with better winnable prospects. A win for the BJP in these regions means more insecurity for the community.

In the southern districts where the clash is directly between the Congress and the BRS, choosing the Congress is an easier, straightforward, and, given the anti-incumbency, natural decision. 

In Adilabad district where the Congress is hoping to make a debut storm of victories, Abdul Aziz and Mohammed Parvez — both auto drivers — concur that community votes are split, almost down the middle and a lot of it has to do with the candidates.

“Nobody in Adilabad votes for our local BRS MLA. We all vote for KCR. He is the BRS’ only credible face. This time, the Congress candidate has won the hearts of the people,” he insists.

The Congress has fielded an NRI, Kandi Srinivas, in the seat, a man who was formerly with the BJP. His claim to fame: Serving free meals to hundreds of poor at his home every day. 

While the BRS and the Congress are wrestling for Muslim community votes, a lot will ride on the Friday prayers held right before polling day when clerics will make a public declaration on who to vote for.

“Muslims are strategic voters who decide to vote in unison. While the Majlis (AIMIM) is backing the BRS, a majority of the Muslims in Telangana do not like the Majlis and are guided by their imams and clerics at mosques. One announcement on the Friday before elections will seal the deal for parties,” a senior BRS leader remarked. 

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For Dalits, unkept promises

For Dalit voters, it isn’t the spirit of the community but unfulfilled promises that are guiding their decision. 

Sixty-three-year-old Sathamma gets by selling fruits on the dusty roads of Ibrahimpatnam. She doesn’t get an old-age pension because her husband is a beneficiary. Her family isn’t a beneficiary of Dalit Bandhu.

“My husband uses all his pension money to drink alcohol. What are women getting in KCR’s administration?” she asks.

Srinivas, 56, who sells footwear at a junction in Nalgonda agrees with Sathamma.

“Landowners get Rythu Bandhu and Bhima (insurance). People who already have homes get double-bedroom houses, but people like me get nothing. The BRS hasn’t delivered on the promises it made during the statehood movement,” he insists, recalling staging roadblocks during agitations demanding the bifurcation of united Andhra Pradesh. 

The BRS, no doubt, has goodwill among beneficiaries of their welfare schemes, but admiration for KCR is evident even among some who have been rejected for schemes.

B Manemma, 64, a Dalit voter in Patancheru of Sangareddy, is one such admirer. “Yes I haven’t received Dalit Bandhu or pension or double bedroom house — but someone, somewhere like me is getting all of it. Isn’t it? My vote is for KCR,” she beams with a hint of pride when she talks about Chandrashekar Rao. 

Manemma, however, is an exception in a community that seems largely discontented with the BRS government in Telangana.

The incumbent BRS government has much to worry about Dalit voters like Nakka Satish in Katrial village of Medak. Satish’s grandmother’s pension was abruptly stopped when the revenue office marked her dead months ago.

“She is blind, she cannot walk anymore and has to drag herself with the help of her stick. But does she look dead to you?” he asked clearly not amused with the “joke” that the government is playing with him.

“For 10 years we have been waiting for a house. Now is not the time to wait. That is what our whole village thinks. Now is the time for change,” he categorically told South First. 

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Consolidation effort

Fully aware that it cannot consolidate Muslim votes in Telangana as it did in Karnataka with KCR continuing to enjoy popularity among minorities, the Congress in Telangana has devised a different strategy. 

Its Minority Declaration document highlights its national leaders — Sonia Gandhi, Mallikarjun Kharge, and Rahul Gandhi — in that order. 

The Congress is imploring Muslims to look at the Telangana Assembly elections from a national perspective and not like a state election. This pitch gives Congress the opportunity to present it as a fight against the BJP nationally, and not the BRS in the state.  

“We have a weak Muslim leadership in Telangana. We need to build a strong Muslim leadership,” said an AICC office bearer in charge of the Telangana Congress this election.

On 30 November when polling begins for the Telangana Assembly election, it is likely that the way these two communities — Muslims and Dalits — vote will make or mar the fortune for either party.