Since 2019, the AIADMK has faced defeat after defeat – in the Lok Sabha polls, bypolls, assembly election, local body polls, and again in the 2024 Lok Sabha election. Senior leaders like Sengottaiyan openly demanded unity, but Palaniswami expelled them from responsibilities without even seeking an explanation. Some say this reflects a Jayalalithaa-style iron hand.
Published Sep 23, 2025 | 9:00 AM ⚊ Updated Sep 23, 2025 | 9:00 AM
The 2026 assembly election is set to be the ultimate test of Palaniswami’s leadership.
Synopsis: In the decade since Jayalalithaa’s death, AIADMK General Secretary Edappadi K Palaniswami has tightened his grip on the party by systematically sidelining rivals. Yet in recent months, his authority has looked increasingly fragile amid internal dissent and the exit of high-profile figures. His handling of these crises, along with his mercurial stance on alliances, particularly with the BJP, has fuelled speculation that he may be attempting to emulate Jayalalithaa. But successive defeats since 2019 and his lack of charisma mean the 2026 polls are shaping up as a decisive test of both Palaniswami’s authority and the AIADMK’s future.
The All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) has been facing a series of crises in recent months.
Amid continued questions over alliances ahead of the 2026 assembly elections, party General Secretary Edappadi K Palaniswami has faced mounting pressure to reunite with prominent names who have split from the party. On top of these issues, internal dissent has added fuel to the fire.
On 5 September, senior AIADMK leader KA Sengottaiyan told the media that the party must unite. The very next day, Palaniswami responded by stripping Sengottaiyan of all party responsibilities, though he stopped short of removing him from primary membership.
Palaniswami has also ruled out any possibility of bringing back former AIADMK leaders O Panneerselvam, VK Sasikala or TTV Dhinakaran into the party fold.
Beyond internal disputes, the 2026 assembly election is set to be the ultimate test of Palaniswami’s leadership. Political analysts in Tamil Nadu say that if he fails, his authority within the AIADMK will collapse.
“The DMK [Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam] is a cadre-based party. The AIADMK is not, it survives only on charismatic leadership. The leader must win elections to maintain cadre confidence. Jayalalithaa did that, even staging comebacks after defeats. Palaniswami hasn’t achieved anything comparable. He even promised a ‘mega alliance’ in April 2025, but nothing came of it. For him, victory in 2026 is absolutely critical,” says Arun Kumar, political science professor and analyst.
This has raised a larger political question: is Palaniswami attempting to project himself as a strong leader in the mould of Jayalalithaa? And if so, have his efforts borne fruit?
In the 2021 assembly election, the AIADMK contested in alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). But the results fell short of expectations. In 2023, the alliance broke apart. Former AIADMK minister D Jayakumar bluntly stated then that the BJP was a “burden” and that the AIADMK might have performed better without them.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the AIADMK went it alone, forming its own alliance, but failed to win a single seat.
The BJP continued to face attacks from AIADMK leaders, while tensions between Tamil Nadu BJP chief Annamalai and Palaniswami deepened. For a time, it seemed impossible that the two parties would reunite.
Speculation grew, however, when Palaniswami, while in Delhi on 25 March for the inauguration of the AIADMK’s new office, quietly met Home Minister Amit Shah after switching cars multiple times to avoid media attention.
Four days later, on 29 March, Sengottaiyan too met Amit Shah and Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in Delhi, sparking talk that the BJP might favour Sengottaiyan to take the reins of the AIADMK over Palaniswami.
The suspense ended on 11 April, when Amit Shah and Palaniswami, during the Home Minister’s visit to Chennai, jointly announced that the AIADMK would contest the 2026 assembly election under the NDA banner.
Since then, debates have raged. If the NDA wins Tamil Nadu in 2026, will the alliance form the government? Will Palaniswami be the chief ministerial candidate? Who really leads the coalition? And will the AIADMK-BJP friction continue?
Palaniswami’s handling of these controversies has itself become a subject of discussion.
Even before the formal alliance, a pattern had emerged: AIADMK leaders rushing to Delhi to meet Amit Shah whenever problems cropped up. This has led to speculation that the real power centre of the AIADMK may now be in Delhi.
Palaniswami himself met Amit Shah privately before the alliance was announced. Sengottaiyan too, after being stripped of party posts on 6 September, immediately travelled to Delhi on 8 September and met Amit Shah.
Notably, Sengottaiyan had given Palaniswami a ten-day ultimatum to unite the AIADMK. On 16 September, the day after that deadline expired, Palaniswami again met Amit Shah in Delhi. Media reports highlighted how Palaniswami used multiple cars, covered his face while exiting Shah’s residence, and drew fresh controversy.
Such secretive meetings have triggered questions. Why does the AIADMK still operate in secrecy even after formally joining hands with the BJP? Is Palaniswami deliberately emulating Jayalalithaa’s style of keeping allies and rivals guessing?
Jayalalithaa was often called the “Iron Lady” for the way she wrested control of the AIADMK after MGR’s death and the decisiveness with which she held both party and government.
“Jayalalithaa suffered setbacks but always bounced back to victory. Palaniswami, on the other hand, has only faced defeats so far. He never became chief minister through a people’s mandate – Sasikala chose him. Since then, he has lost and has not made a comeback. Without electoral victories, one cannot truly become a powerful leader,” says journalist Priyan Srinivasan.
Arun Kumar notes key differences.
“Historically, the AIADMK is a charismatic leader-driven party. After MGR, it rallied behind Jayalalithaa. But after her death, the lack of a single leader weakened it. Palaniswami consolidated power by sidelining OPS, but the problem is he lacks charisma. Unlike Jayalalithaa, he has not been able to inspire cadres or secure big wins.”
Palaniswami has so far failed to lead the AIADMK to victory in multiple elections. For him, the 2026 assembly election is a do-or-die battle – the chance to prove his authority. That is why, despite rejecting the BJP earlier, he has now returned to the alliance in hopes of using “arithmetic” against the DMK, argues Arun Kumar.
Since 2019, the AIADMK has faced defeat after defeat – in the Lok Sabha polls, bypolls, assembly election, local body polls, and again in the 2024 Lok Sabha election. Senior leaders like Sengottaiyan openly demanded unity, but Palaniswami expelled them from responsibilities without even seeking an explanation. Some say this reflects a Jayalalithaa-style iron hand.
But Priyan disagrees.
“Jayalalithaa was truly all-powerful. Even when out of power, she commanded submission. Palaniswami doesn’t have that. Voices of dissent—like Sengottaiyan’s, or possibly Jayakumar’s in the future—will continue to rise.”
Arun Kumar accuses Palaniswami of selective action.
“He tries to project himself as someone unafraid to act. But look at how he expelled RSS-linked Thalavai Sundaram, yet did not act against Velumani, who met RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat. Velumani is too powerful in the Kongu belt. This exposes Palaniswami’s weakness.”
Priyan contrasts Palaniswami’s leadership with that of Jayalalithaa.
“There’s a difference between courage and recklessness. Jayalalithaa had courage. Palaniswami only has recklessness. Right now, it looks like leaders are rallying around him, but that’s just election-time unity. If he loses in 2026, dissent like Sengottaiyan’s will multiply,” Priyan says.
“Jayalalithaa was a people’s leader accepted by all, but Palaniswami simply doesn’t have that stature. He may project his building as strong, but its foundation is too weak.”
When the AIADMK walked out of the BJP alliance in 2023, Jayakumar had called the BJP a “baggage.” Observers say the situation has not really changed.
Arun Kumar explains, “Even today, the BJP is a burden in Tamil Nadu politics. Despite a modest rise in vote share, it is still seen as anti-Tamil. That image hurts not just the BJP but also the parties allied with it. That’s why AIADMK leaders like CV Shanmugam and Jayakumar opposed the alliance earlier.”
He argues that Palaniswami announced the tie-up with the BJP nearly a year in advance to suppress doubts about their chemistry. While the alliance may work naturally in western Tamil Nadu, the AIADMK’s stronghold, grassroots resistance remains in northern and southern districts, especially among Vanniyars and traditional cadres.
“At one point, Palaniswami even explored an alliance with Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam as an alternative. Nothing materialised. The BJP remains baggage, and Palaniswami knows it. That’s why he’s trying to rope in more allies – but the options are limited,” Arun notes.
He stresses the importance of perception value.
“The DMK alliance has an ideological coherence – anti-BJP unity. The AIADMK alliance lacks that, largely because of Palaniswami’s flip-flops. Just a year ago, he declared he would never ally with the BJP. Now he has. This inconsistency destroys credibility. To counter that, they keep signalling distance from the BJP. That’s why these mixed messages and awkward optics keep surfacing.”
(Edited by Dese Gowda)
