Published Feb 20, 2026 | 8:00 AM ⚊ Updated Feb 20, 2026 | 8:37 AM
Vijay has been able to convince his support base that he represents a new era of politics, despite not articulating his ideology.
Synopsis: For a state with a penchant for personality politics, known to have picked stalwarts such as MG Ramachandran, M Karunanidhi and J Jayalalithaa, Tamil Nadu is now starved of an “iconic personality” in politics. Vijay fits that vacuum suitably. He carries a larger-than-life aura, commands a massive fan base who worship him, and has charisma that eclipses anyone else in Tamil Nadu’s political theatre today. His rare public appearances add to the mystique.
Barely two years old, and led by someone who rarely makes public appearances despite aspiring to be a ‘jana nayagan’ (people’s leader), the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) has left existing political players in poll-bound Tamil Nadu nervous.
Actor-turned-politician Vijay’s party has emerged as an unexpected disruptor, throwing off poll calculations, with neither seasoned political parties nor psephologists nor consultants able to gauge the actual impact TVK is expected to have.
The party has the advantage of being an “unknown commodity”, as one poll strategist put it.
As a new entrant to Tamil Nadu politics, it has no polling history, no baggage of perception and no fear of consequence. All this makes its impact in the upcoming polls near impossible to assess.
Perceptions of TVK are nearly split. On one side of the spectrum are “experts”—politicians, journalists, political observers and psephologists—who are convinced Vijay is a non-entity who may pull votes but will not win enough seats to make a difference to the outcome, and that the buzz around him will fizzle out.
On the other end of the spectrum are those who believe TVK is a storm that will engulf Tamil Nadu and that legacy parties will not know what hit them.
In short, one section severely underestimates TVK, while the other seems to overestimate his pull. All of this is seemingly based just on the overwhelming euphoria around the party.
Sift through the competing takes and one constant emerges: the ‘40 factor’.
“If you divide Tamil Nadu’s voters into two groups—one above 40 and another below 40—the second group is almost en masse choosing Vijay. A small mock poll in any booth across Tamil Nadu will show that six or seven out of every 10 voters—irrespective of gender, community, caste or religion—under 40 years of age are picking Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam as their party of choice,” a shocked MP from Tamil Nadu told South First.
According to the MP, voters above 40 years of age are split between the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)-led Secular Progressive Alliance, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK)-led National Democratic Alliance and TVK.
Another MP from the state pointed to mock polls showing women—even those above 40—preferring TVK, especially in urban regions. That is setting off alarm bells in both the DMK and AIADMK blocs.
The story does not end there, however. Other variables matter for TVK.
For decades, voters in Tamil Nadu have had only two real options: a DMK-led front or an AIADMK-led bloc.
Smaller parties such as Vaiko’s Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, Dr S Ramadoss’ Pattali Makkal Katchi, late Vijayakant’s Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam, Seeman’s Naam Tamilar Katchi and Thol Thirumavalavan’s Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi have made waves at different points.
But they have eventually had to align with one of the two Dravidian giants, either before or after polls.
Fatigue with the DMK and AIADMK is a golden ticket for the TVK. Vijay is trying to exploit that fatigue with the promise of something new.
Moreover, for a state with a penchant for personality politics, known to have picked stalwarts such as MG Ramachandran, M Karunanidhi and J Jayalalithaa, Tamil Nadu is now starved of an “iconic personality” in politics. Vijay fits that vacuum suitably.
He carries a larger-than-life aura, commands a massive fan base who practically worship him, and has charisma that eclipses anyone else in Tamil Nadu’s political theatre today.
His rare public appearances add to the mystique. It might be an irritant for detractors, but also a shield that protects him from exposing his political inexperience.
By using silence as strategy, Vijay has also been able to convince his support base that he represents hope, aspiration, and a new era of politics, despite not articulating his ideology.
The Karur stampede last year, where over 40 lives were lost during one of his public meetings, appears to have generated little ill-will towards Vijay from his support base. This is despite the actor having hurriedly left the scene of the tragedy.
What the incident exposed, however, was a lack of political maturity, both in Vijay and in his second-rung leaders and advisers. The lack of experience in managing political challenges is expected to surface during TVK’s candidate selection phase.
The party has neither cadre nor structure nor reliable candidates for the upcoming polls. In effect, TVK is likely to choose candidates associated with Vijay’s fan clubs, if not community heroes or local individuals with a public service record. Any seat with more than one aspirant is likely to see dissent.
The absence of a compelling ideology has meant that Vijay has engaged in empty rhetoric against the DMK government in Tamil Nadu and the Bharatiya Janata Party at the Centre.
His inability to clearly state what his brand of politics is and what he promises the people of Tamil Nadu marks a break from convention in a state where ideology forms the basis of politics.
As of reporting, ground surveys put TVK’s estimated vote share at between 17 percent and 21 percent (+/- 2) across Tamil Nadu.
TVK maybe polling closer to 30 percent in mock polls but closer to the election, an AIADMK office-bearer suggests Vijay may lose 5 to 8 percent of the vote share he is currently polling, while a Congress office-bearer puts the dip at 10 to 12 percent.
“Currently, it’s a game of guesses and averages. The outcome of the election depends on how many votes TVK pulls and from whom,” the AIADMK leader told South First.
According to their estimates, if TVK polls 15 percent, it would put the DMK and AIADMK neck and neck. If Vijay polls 20 percent, it would put the AIADMK bloc ahead. Any higher, and the DMK could stand to gain.
“Vijay hasn’t been punished by people for anything so far or held accountable because he hasn’t really begun to show his political capacities. Even after the Karur tragedy, he hasn’t faced consequences. But that will change closer to the election. The euphoria around him will begin to dissipate as TVK makes decisions on candidates, strategy, ideology and poll promises,” said the chief of a political consultancy firm working in Tamil Nadu.
The DMK, on the other hand, is throwing its weight behind its social welfare measures, hoping to reap results while fully acknowledging that young and urban voters are swaying towards TVK.
In all, Vijay’s fortunes are being guided by the ‘40 factor’.
(Edited by Dese Gowda)
